Adam Wainwright's Arm Troubles Will Not Decide National League Champion

Here's a combination of things that sounds bad: Adam Wainwright has a cranky arm, he's the St. Louis Cardinals' best pitcher and the National League Championship Series starts Saturday.

But actually, things could be worse. Wainwright's situation isn't ideal, but it's not likely to give the San Francisco Giants a clear advantage in the chase for the National League pennant.

First, the news at hand comes from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. After reporting that Wainwright's status for a potential Game 5 start against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS was up in the air, Goold divulged the following Tuesday afternoon:

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The Cardinals intend to start ace Adam Wainwright for Game 1 of the National League championship series on Saturday, as scheduled, but they have prepared Lance Lynn as an alternative if the club does not feel Wainwright is ready for the game or is unable to pitch deep into it.

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Specifically, Wainwright is dealing with the same "tendinitis and discomfort around his right elbow" he's been pitching through for months, presumably starting with the troubles that popped up in early June.

But it's not time for the Cardinals to panic or the Giants to celebrate prematurely. There are a couple of outcomes at play here, and none of them sound overly damning for the Cardinals.

Outcome No. 1: Wainwright Pitches Through the Pain

Tom Lynn/Getty Images

At least for Game 1, this sounds like the plan. In fact, the man himself told David Brown of Big League Stew that he was "definitely suiting up" for a Game 5 on Thursday if the NLDS lasted that long.

He added: "This is the same thing I've been dealing with all season. It's nothing new."

Assuming that's true, Wainwright's numbers confirm that he pitched through pain just fine. He finished with a career-best 2.38 ERA in 227 innings, and he allowed only two earned runs in his last four regular-season starts.

And though the 33-year-old right-hander did get shelled to the tune of 11 hits and six earned runs in Game 1 of the NLDS, his stuff wasn't the problem. Brooks Baseball can show that he actually pitched with good velocity, anyway:

Split	Four-Seam	Sinker	Cutter	Curveball	Slider
Regular Season	91.13	91.08	87.24	75.34	82.96
Game 1 NLDS	91.61	91.55	89.12	77.97	86.10

Goold pointed out the bigger problem was how Wainwright "did not have a feel for his fastball and had to rely heavily on the curveball." He's right, as Wainwright went to his curveball more than any other pitch.

That was a dangerous strategy against the Dodgers, who hit right-handed curveballs at a higher average than any NL team, according to BaseballSavant.com. The Giants won't pose as much of a threat if Wainwright is forced to once again go to a curveball-heavy approach. They hit .226 against righty curveballs, quite a step down from the Dodgers' .270 average. 

As such, Wainwright won't necessarily be asking for trouble if he pitches through pain in the NLCS. It would be nothing new for him, and what happened in Game 1 of the NLDS really doesn't indicate that the Giants would have an automatic advantage.

But let's say Wainwright comes to manager Mike Matheny and says he could use some extra rest. That would mean...

Outcome No. 2: Wainwright Gets Pushed Back

Ralph Freso/Getty Images

If it comes to this, the easy assumption is that Wainwright would only be pushed back to Game 2. But what the heck: Let's assume that him being the starter for Game 4 is a possibility.

That would leave it to Lance Lynn, John Lackey and Shelby Miller to pick up the slack. That none of them is named Adam Wainwright is a bummer, but here's the thing: They're all pitching pretty well these days.

If we include what each of the three did in the NLDS, we find:

Player	Stretch	IP	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	ERA
Lynn	Last 10 GS	64.0	7.9	2.8	8.0	0.8	2.25
Lackey	Last 9 GS	55.2	8.0	2.3	8.8	0.8	3.10
Miller	Last 8 GS	49.0	6.7	2.2	6.5	0.9	2.24

Though it's really only the ERAs that jump off the page, the other numbers are solid enough to suggest the results aren't total flukes.

It's also not like we're talking about three nobodies. Lynn had a terrific breakout season. Lackey had some issues upon first joining the Cardinals after a trade from the Boston Red Sox but has largely been fantastic since his return from Tommy John surgery last year. Miller is inconsistent, but his stuff is fine, and he has led the dominant stretches (i.e., the one he's on) here and there.

Factor in the reality that the Giants offense the Cardinals are about to face is not as high-powered as the Dodgers offense they just dispatched, and it's even easier to be calm about the prospect of Wainwright being pushed back.

Delaying Wainwright could also be advantageous if the series goes long. If he pitches Game 2, he could take the mound in a Game 6 on five days' rest. If it's Game 3, he could pitch in a Game 7 on normal rest. If it's Game 4, he could either start or relieve in a Game 7 on three days' rest.

But let's now assume the worst. What if...

Outcome No. 3: Wainwright Doesn't Pitch at All

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

There's no indication that this is going to happen, but maybe it will. You never know.

If it does, I assume most would be quick to write the Cardinals off. But with Lynn, Lackey and Miller all good to go, Wainwright going down would really only complicate things starting in Game 4.

That's when Matheny would have to decide between restarting his rotation with everyone on short rest or, more likely, handing the ball to Michael Wacha.

Maybe that sounds ominous. Wacha did, after all, miss all of July and August thanks to a shoulder injury. And when he came back, The Associated Press (h/t Sporting News) opined that he "had trouble regaining form."

To the extent that Wacha didn't pitch more than five innings in any of his four post-absence starts, this is true. But Brooks Baseball can vouch that his velocity returned right away. And after throwing only seven of his signature changeups in his first two starts back, he threw 37 in his next two. Also, his final start saw him throw more pitches than he had since the middle of May.

Maybe the Cardinals wouldn't get the guy who carved his way through the 2013 postseason if they had to use Wacha in a pinch in Game 4, but asking him for five good innings before turning the game over to a solid bullpen wouldn't be unreasonable. 

Mind you, it's not just a solid bullpen the Cardinals have. Baseball Prospectus put them among the seven most efficient defensive teams in MLB, and the way they hit the ball in the NLDS served as a wake-up call that their offense is more dangerous than its regular-season performance indicates.

In all, the Cardinals are well-equipped to handle their ace not being at 100 percent. Wainwright himself is a candidate to be effective while pitching through pain. If not, the Cardinals have three hot pitchers after him and, if need be, an emergency option.

This is not to say that the Cardinals are going to steamroll the Giants. They're too good and indeed too resilient of a team to be regarded as such a hopeless doormat.

Instead, what we're saying here is that the NLCS isn't over before it's even begun because of one very important player's health status. What we're saying here, in so many words, is that the Cardinals and Giants should be in for an entertaining series no matter what.

You know, kinda like the last NLCS they played in.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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