Breaking Down the Cincinnati Reds Heading into Free Agency

There are several notable areas drastically in need of an upgrade for the Cincinnati Reds. Help is needed on both sides of the ball; the bullpen was a disaster, and the offense was borderline anemic.

Beyond that, there's the issue of the third base coach and an egregious amount of injuries, but neither remedies are likely floating around in free agency, so those two will serve as footnotes.

Thoughts surrounding the Reds' to-do list this offseason are sprinkled along a lengthy spectrum, beginning with "standing pat" and ending with C-4ing the entire product. The truth is somewhere in between and further from C-4 than standing pat.

Because the Reds finished 76-86, it's becoming increasingly popular to believe that the team—as is—isn't capable. That logic seems flawed only because of an enormous deviation from what this product has previously accomplished as recently as last year. Think big picture, outside of just 2014.

Everyone already knows Joey Votto only played in 62 games. But for whatever reason, not everyone is willing to consider this a major detriment despite Votto finishing as the No. 1 run-creator in the National League last year and finishing No. 6 in MVP voting.

That's not even considering Jay Bruce, who virtually no one is willing to give a pass to for the worst year he's ever endured in his seven major league seasons. Is it at all reasonable to suggest his worst career year, statistically, at this point is an aberration possibly due to an arthroscopic knee surgery he endured in May?

Apparently not, at least not according to local media, which seems to have completely abandoned a product that has won 90 or more games in three of the last five seasons. John Erardi of The Cincinnati Enquirer  recently wrote the following concerning the miserable season that was and how the Reds should approach the offseason:

"Getting healthy alone isn't going to cut it. (Don't let the Reds' brass sell you that one; it's not just the bullpen that needs an overhaul.)"

If you're expecting him to further expound on his logic surrounding why 2014 wasn't about health, you'll be disappointed. Ditto if you try Enquirer columnist Paul Daugherty. Surrounding the Reds' 2014 campaign, Daugherty wrote:

"

Do not believe that a healthy Joey Votto would have made a 15-game difference. Or even a 10-game swing. Ten games better would still put the Reds a game behind Pittsburgh, for the second wild card.

Do not think the season would have been a roaring success with Mat Latos healthy in April and May, with Homer Bailey whole now. Believing that health is the answer is a fool's game. Who's healthy this year might not be next year.

"

Unless you're someone who enjoys being fed an opinion instead of using facts or any sort of empirical data to back up these claims, you once again may be disappointed with the Cincinnati media's lackadaisical logic that begins and ends with gut feelings and intuition.

You'll find no such logic, or lack of it, in this space. You can find the panic anywhere, but if you're being objective, it's obvious that besides a clean bill of health, the Reds have two major deficiencies needing an upgrade this offseason. The most important is the bullpen while the other is a left fielder who can improve the offense.

1. The Bullpen 

More than any other statistical category, the Reds distanced themselves from other competitors with quite arguably the worst bullpen in baseball.  The pen finished 11-31, both numbers worthy of recognition. Eleven wins accounts for the fewest amount of bullpen wins in baseball, which isn't necessarily a horrible thing, especially considering how good the Reds starting pitching rotation is.

But 31 losses accounts for the second-most in baseball and the worst in the NL. The bullpen ERA of 4.11 was officially No. 26 in MLB and second-worst in the NL

Of course, injuries played a role, at least initially. Recall that the Reds started their 2014 season without Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton—the entire back end of their bullpen. That allowed guys like Nick Christiani and Trevor Bell to pitch instead while others like Logan Ondrusek, J.J. Hoover, Manny Parra and Sam LeCure were elevated to situations they normally wouldn't be involved in. 

Jumbo Diaz makes for a suitable remedy after trading Broxton. And Marshall might still possibly return to his once-dominant left-handed specialist form.

That's the thing about this need heading into free agency—the bullpen might not need to be addressed via free agents. Tony Cingrani will also be getting healthy, and unless a starting pitcher is dealt, he'll likely return to the bullpen.

So while the bullpen is definitely in need of help, couldn't the Reds save money by using guys like Pedro Villarreal, who had a decent September, and someone like a Cingrani to aide an ailing bullpen?

But if the Reds decide to utilize free agency, Burke Badenhop is someone I like a lot. The 31-year-old right-hander is coming off an impressive year with the Boston Red Sox, finishing 0-3 but with a 2.29 ERA. He allowed just one home run in over 70 innings pitched and walked only 19 batters while striking out 40.

2. Left Field

It seems all but official that the Reds will likely pay $4.5 million just to see Ryan Ludwick off. With his departure, there is one name in free agency that I consider a must for the Reds: Nori Aoki. If you're unfamiliar with this man, you can watch him play for the Kansas City Royals in the American League Championship Series this weekend.

The Reds offense was abysmal, but what do you realistically expect when the team's best hitters are on and off the disabled list? I struggle to understand how injuries are an excuse rather than a reason. The proof is at your fingertips.

Take, for example, Bruce, who is a career .251/.323/.467 hitter in his career. Last season, in a year he literally had arthroscopic knee surgery midseason, he finished at .217/.281/.373.

Is this not the very definition of a statistical outlier? How does it make any sense to invest in one bad season out of seven, especially considering the midseason knee surgery? Has Votto's experience with bum knees not been enough evidence to illustrate how catastrophic those can be toward performance?

The Reds finished the 2014 season ranked No. 28 in runs scored, No. 29 in hits and No. 29 in on-base percentage. This is a recipe for the kind of season we just witnessed with an insane amount of one-run games and one of baseball's worst offenses.

But if you ask the local Cincinnati media, the guys who are paid to follow this team daily, they'll tell you injuries had nothing to do with that. Injuries to Devin Mesoraco, Votto and Bruce were all routine and that these results would have happened regardless.

How does this logistically make sense?

It doesn't. Stick to the back of the baseball cards. With Votto and Bruce returning to health, simply adding a bat like Aoki's would propel this offense to places we're more accustomed to seeing. Aoki slashed .285/.349/.360 this season for the Royals. 

While Billy Hamilton has performed better than initially expected, there's no denying that his .292 OBP crippled this offense from the start. With Aoki leading off, the Reds get a leadoff hitter comparable to the one they let go after 2013. Shin-Soo Choo finished 2013 with an OBP of .423.

When you consider Votto's OBP from 2013 (.435), it's easy to see how Brandon Phillips and Bruce both finished with above 100 RBI that season. With guys routinely on base, there are obviously more opportunities to score.

Aoki, in my opinion, would be the only major piece needed to help the Reds this offseason. This is, of course, not considering any potential trades that may leave the Reds with more holes. 

The narrative surrounding 2014 has been considerably slanted. And when it's facilitated by local coverage, it's no surprise why injuries are being widely dismissed as the cause of an epic 2014 failure. But readers need to demand more proof, more evidence before disassembling a product that has brought Cincinnati a refreshing taste of success after a decade without it.

All stats and rankings courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.