Arizona Cardinals Can Still Be Contenders with Drew Stanton at Quarterback

When a word like “uncertain” can be used to describe your quarterback’s health, a reality needs to be acknowledged. For the Arizona Cardinals, that means the realization Carson Palmer may not be taking meaningful snaps in the near future.

Palmer has now missed two games due to a nerve issue in his shoulder. It results in numbness, particularly when the arm is lifted up and away from the body. You know, as in a throwing motion.

He did some light throwing during the Cardinals’ bye week between treatments and told ESPN’s Ed Werder he’d “definitely” be ready for Week 5, a tough test on the road against the Broncos. The next time he spoke to Werder, the good vibes were nearly gone:

Instead of practicing Wednesday and taking a bounding leap over a hurdle with his delicate injury, Palmer was on a plane and flying to see Los Angeles-based specialist Dr. Robert Watkins.

You should probably sit down for this (though I’m not sure why you were standing): I’m not a doctor. However, needing to see multiple medical professionals usually ends in a pool of tears.

But not this time? Palmer has reportedly been told he doesn’t need surgery and can continue to rehab with the team, according to Mike Jurecki of Fox Sports Arizona.

It’s not the doomed, death-of-a-season news he could have received. But it’s also uncertain news, returning to that troublesome word. As Jurecki also noted while directing us to more information about Palmer’s injury at Medline Plus, it’s possible for the injury to heal over time.

But how much time is—wait for it—uncertain. Though he’s remained hopeful, Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians has said that if Palmer’s health hasn’t improved significantly by around Week 8, the injured reserve will be strongly considered.

So you’re still up then, Drew Stanton, for at least one more game and maybe much longer. How long Stanton will start is (once more) uncertain. But what we do know is that a backup quarterback will be asked to keep a squeaky clean zero in the Cardinals’ loss column.

What exactly has Stanton shown through his first two starts this season? Let’s start with a fundamental characteristic a coach and/or coordinator desperately searches for in any backup: the ability to take care of the damn ball.

Often when a backup quarterback is starting the game plan is simplified, with the running game leaned on heavily and the defense asked to make stops while a field position battle takes place. The quarterback is then reduced to a secondary figure, with one polite request for when he does have to throw: Don’t turn the ball over.

Stanton has nodded and dutifully followed that command.

After two starts and 62 pass attempts, he still hasn’t thrown an interception. For some fun perspective, fellow backup Kirk Cousins threw four picks in one game last Thursday night on only 33 attempts.

Overall, 34 quarterbacks have attempted at least 60 passes so far this season. Only Stanton and Brian Hoyer remain without a blemish.

Stanton's interception frequency—or lack thereof—compares favorably to the similarly inexperienced Cousins and a handful of other quarterbacks with a whole lot more experience (and talent).

	Pass attempts	Interceptions	Attempts/interceptions
Drew Stanton	62	0	N/A
Kirk Cousins	114	5	22.8
Tony Romo	118	4	29.5
Colin Kaepernick	124	4	31
Matt Ryan	152	5	30.4

When we praise a quarterback for not throwing interceptions, we’re basically saying, “Oh hey, you didn’t screw up? Awesome job!”

But with a backup in a care-taking role, essentials become a vital function. Remember, we’re discussing a 30-year-old who just had three seasons between starts. And if we safely assume Stanton is under center again in Week 5, it’ll be only his sixth career start.

That care-taking side of Stanton’s throwing smells like a mixture of roses and peaches so far. The odor comes from his lack of completions and general football-spraying.

Stanton has completed only 51.6 percent of his passes, a rate which dropped to 48.3 during a Week 2 win over the Giants that didn’t require a single passing touchdown. When we play the same comparison game with a handful of Stanton’s quarterback peers using completion percentage with 60 attempts as the cutoff, it’s not nearly as much fun this time.

	Completion %	Attempts	Passer Rating
Matt Cassel	57.75	71	65.8
Mike Glennon	57.58	66	85.6
Jake Locker	56.44	101	70.8
Chad Henne	53.58	78	80.7
Drew Stanton	51.61	62	83.5

Completion percentage is a forgiving and generous metric for a quarterback because the actual accuracy of a pass (what it pretends to measure) is only partly factored in. If a receiver had to dive or reach for a ball, it’s tallied as a successful completion regardless.

Yet Stanton is still occupying the bottom of a deep, dark basement.

That’s a little scary if Palmer’s injury persists. But while it has value and shouldn't be ignored, know that the basic completion percentage tells only a half-truth in another way. It ignores the difficulty of the pass and how far downfield a throw had to travel.

That’s an important distinction in an Arians offense, because whenever we press pause on the game film and illustrate one of his plays, the result is usually a lot of long lines.

Arians and the deep ball have been soul mates for quite some time in his vertical offense. That romance has grown along with Michael Floyd’s rapid development, and John Brown’s also-increasing role because of his turf burning.

For Stanton that meant shedding his layer of deep-throwing rust in a hurry. And he’s done just that, with his arm now at least an economical family sedan on the car scale instead of a rusted vintage station wagon.

A shining example came on just the third play of his second start during Week 3 against San Francisco. The Cardinals needed four yards on third down, with the ball on their own 26. Arians decided that down and distance presented an early opportunity to look deep.

It was Floyd running in the straight, long line this time, with Brown taking a deep post up the middle and Larry Fitzgerald cutting with a quick slant. All three receivers started off in a bunch to Stanton’s right as he stood waiting in shotgun.

NFL Game Rewind

With solid protection, Stanton could step into his throw. He did that while taking roughly two seconds for the ball to go from his hands after the snap to the air on its way to Floyd.

That was the easy part. The ridiculously hard part? Fitting the throw into Floyd’s hands and through the tight window between him, the sideline, and safety Antoine Bethea, who was trailing by only a half-step and still had fine coverage. He had to do all that and sail the ball 34 yards through the air.

No problem. Next.

NFL Game Rewind

Of Stanton’s 62 attempts, 30.6 percent have traveled 20 yards or more downfield, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He’s completed eight of those throws for 202 of his 411 passing yards. That’s how we get more specific with completion percentage, gauging the difficulty of the throws instead of using only the overarching, surface number.

On balls covering at least 10 yards Stanton is completing 41.2 percent of his passes. That’s still not terrific, but it’s far from pathetic too. It meets the qualification for “good,” which is more than sufficient from a backup quarterback.

Comparing him again to some of the league’s more established arms, at that distance Stanton isn’t in the top-tier company of Andrew Luck (57.7), Drew Brees (57.1) or Aaron Rodgers (54.3), according to PFF. But he is in the same territory as Matthew Stafford (44.9), Tom Brady (42.8) and Nick Foles (41.4).

If he can stay around that rate, Stanton is a quarterback who can execute in the Cardinals offense, and Arians won’t have to alter his game plan drastically.

The interceptions will come, and so will wobbly throws that miss the mark. But if Stanton can keep meeting that standard for “good” in an Arians offense—making deep throws when needed and executing the core offense while providing an opportunity to win (or at least not ruining one)—then he’s doing his job as a backup quarterback.