
Florida State Football: Game-by-Game Predictions for the Month of October
After successfully navigating a tougher-than-expected month of September, the No. 1 Florida State football team enters October undefeated for the third time in as many seasons.
Now 4-0 overall and 2-0 in the Atlantic Coast Conference following back-to-back come-from-behind triumphs over Clemson and North Carolina State, FSU's attention turns to Wake Forest before its first league game at the Carrier Dome against Syracuse. The Seminoles then face perhaps the most difficult two-game slate they will see all season when Notre Dame comes to town for a potential top-10 matchup before hitting the road for a daunting Thursday night affair at Louisville to close out the month.
Can the 'Noles stay out of the loss column and remain in the national-title hunt?
Here are the game-by-game predictions for the month of October.
Oct. 4 vs. Wake Forest
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It seems hard to imagine it now, but remember when Florida State consistently struggled with Wake Forest? From 2006-11, the Seminoles were 2-4 against the Demon Deacons, including a three-game losing streak that featured back-to-back upsets by Wake Forest inside Doak Campbell Stadium.
But after a 2011 loss by the 'Noles in Winston-Salem, N.C., the last two seasons in this series have been anything but challenging for FSU. The Seminoles enter this year's tilt having outscored the Demon Deacons by a combined score of 111-3 in their last two meetings.
Saturday's game shouldn't be much different. In fact, this game could ultimately prove to be the 'Noles' first dominant performance of the season.
Wake Forest heads to Tallahassee with the ACC's worst offense. Averaging just 18.2 points per game and 3.6 yards per play—both of which are league lows—isn't going to get it done against an FSU team that is spending the week harping on its poor tackling defense. Despite a sustained inability to consistently bring NC State players to the ground, FSU still showed signs of an improving defensive unit in that victory over the Wolfpack last weekend.
If Wake Forest is going to have any chance (even if it is remote) to halt FSU's school-record 20-game winning streak, it will be on the shoulders of its defense. The Demon Deacons are much improved on that side of the football and find themselves seventh in the ACC with an average of 330.8 yards allowed per game.
But they haven't faced Jameis Winston, Rashad Greene and an FSU offense that averages 454.5 yards per game yet.
Florida State 42, Wake Forest 7
Oct. 11 at Syracuse
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Following what should be a lopsided home win over Wake Forest, Florida State hits the road for the third time in 2014 knowing it will only have two more away games during the remainder of the regular season.
The Oct. 11 clash in the Carrier Dome will pit the likely 5-0 Seminoles against an Orange team that will be on the tail end of a difficult three-game slate of games. After falling to No. 9 Notre Dame, 31-15, last weekend at MetLife Stadium, Syracuse has a Friday night game against visiting Louisville this weekend before hosting the reigning national champion Seminoles.
Will the extra day of practice help the Orange in their bid to upset FSU? Probably not. Syracuse needed two overtimes to defeat Villanova in its season opener before slamming Central Michigan, 40-3, and then lost in back-to-back weeks to Maryland and the Fighting Irish.
Syracuse doesn't have a terrible offense (it averages 6.1 yards per play) but its pass defense has been porous so far this season. The Orange allow 256 yards through the air each game and are allowing an ACC-worst 148.5 pass efficiency rating by opposing quarterbacks.
Winston should have no trouble exploiting that weak link on Carrier Dome turf.
Florida State 52, Syracuse 17
Oct. 18 vs. Notre Dame
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College football fans could get a treat Oct. 18 if both Florida State and Notre Dame are still undefeated.
The potential top-10 matchup could be a prime-time showdown that might be big enough to bring ESPN's College GameDay back to Tallahassee, Fla., for a game with major College Football Playoff implications.
Whether Notre Dame is undefeated at the time should depend entirely on what happens this weekend when Stanford visits South Bend, Ind., for a highly anticipated matchup. If the Fighting Irish and quarterback Everett Golson, who completed 25 consecutive passes last week against Syracuse, get past the Cardinal, a very winnable game against North Carolina awaits them next weekend before they travel to Florida's capital city.
Saturday's showdown with Stanford will also go a long way toward proving whether Notre Dame is worthy of its current No. 8/9 national ranking. The Fighting Irish are undefeated, but wins over Rice, a floundering Michigan team, Purdue and Syracuse aren't exactly anything to brag about.
Florida State has faced terrific quarterbacks in each of its last two games, as Clemson's Deshaun Watson and NC State's Jacoby Brissett showed the impact an elite signal-caller can have against the Seminoles' defense.
Golson would be yet another challenge for that group. On the flip side, Winston presents his own problems for the defenses he faces and FSU is always going to be favored as long as last year's Heisman Trophy winner is under center.
Florida State 35, Notre Dame 21
Oct. 30 at Louisville
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Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher is not a fan of Thursday night games, but as long as his team is a national brand playing at a high level, television executives at ESPN are going to continue scheduling the 'Noles in the pre-weekend prime-time slot for the nation to tune in and see.
And outside of last year when the Seminoles didn't play a Thursday game (they played a Monday night season opener at Pittsburgh instead), the 2014 season stays true to the ESPN business model as FSU travels to play at new ACC member Louisville, in what many would argue could be one of the more difficult games on the 'Noles' schedule this year.
Luckily for FSU, a well-timed bye weekend separates the game against the Cardinals and the Seminoles' previous matchup against Notre Dame. The extra time to rest and prepare for what would normally be a short week is important, but Louisville also benefits from the same luxury. The Cardinals get an extra weekend to prepare after back-to-back games against Clemson and upstart NC State.
FSU is 7-5 all time in Thursday games, so history isn't exactly favorable for the defending champions. But Florida State's superior talent should be the difference Oct. 30 at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.
That won't stop FSU fans from worrying, though.
Florida State 38, Louisville 14
Final Analysis
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October Record: 4-0
Overall Record Through October: 8-0
October is a critical month, with two of the five games specifically circled in the preseason as the year's biggest contests on Florida State's calendar falling within 12 days of each other.
The Seminoles should have no trouble turning back Wake Forest and Syracuse but the back-to-back games against Notre Dame and Louisville—even if there is a bye weekend in between—could ultimately either prove to douse the 'Noles' title hopes or firmly place them in the hunt for the College Football Playoff.
The Seminoles haven't been nearly as dominant through the first four games of the season as they were during last year's title run and they likely won't match that same performance in the month of October. But they have battled back and won games they probably should have lost. Combine their resiliency with the elite talent dotting the roster and it's hard to argue that Florida State won't be undefeated when November comes calling.
Brandon Mellor is a Florida State writer for Bleacher Report. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of Seminoles.com and TheACC.com. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
Follow @BrandonMellor on Twitter.
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