Wisconsin Badgers vs. Northwestern Wildcats Complete Game Preview

The Wisconsin Badgers wrapped up their non-conference schedule with an unconvincing 27-10 victory over the South Florida Bulls to move to 3-1 before opening up Big Ten play with a trip to Ryan Field to take on the Northwestern Wildcats (2-2, 1-0 Big Ten).

After three sub-par games to open up the 2014 season, the Wildcats traveled to Happy Valley, where they surprisingly pulled off a 29-6 victory over a previously undefeated Penn State team.

That was probably both teams regressing to the mean as Penn State's early season victories came against UCF, Akron, Rutgers and UMass—with perhaps only Rutgers instilling any fear—though the same could be said about the previously limp Wildcats.

No current Badgers have played at Ryan Field, with the last visit coming all the way back in 2009 despite the close proximity of the two campuses.  

The Badgers haven't actually won at Ryan Field since the 20th century—1999 to be more exact—but have won the past two meetings between the two teams, including a 35-6 thrashing last season.

Wisconsin Keys to Victory

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A heavy dose of Melvin Gordon and short passes are a winning formula for the Badgers.

K.I.S.S.

The acronym K.I.S.S. stands for Keep It Simple Stupid, which is exactly what the Badgers need to do to beat Northwestern this week.  

While fancy play-calling worked in the 2012 Big Ten Championship game, resulting in the 70-31 destruction of the Nebraska Cornhuskers, the Badgers are at their best when they don't try and outsmart themselves.

The Badgers have five road graders on the offensive line and tight end Austin Traylor has shown a great willingness and ability to get out and block in the run game.  

Melvin Gordon ran the ball 32 times against South Florida, and while that's about a half-dozen too many carries, the point holds: Do what you do best, early and often.

In the passing game, the coaching staff needs to quickly realize that Tanner McEvoy is not Joel Stave, for better and for worse.  McEvoy is at his best when his legs are an asset, and while the downfield play-action strike was a staple of last season's playbook, it hasn't worked this season with nearly as much success.

Staying in front of the chains—be it through short passes to the backs, tight ends and Alex Erickson—has worked with aplomb. Adding in heavy doses of Corey Clement and Gordon should be more than enough to keep the defense fresh and the Badgers leading on the scoreboard.

Defend the Deep Ball

Last week, South Florida quarterback Mike White attempted 19 passes, completing eight.  Of those eight passes, four were complete for 20 or more yards.  While giving up 8-of-19 passing for 173 yards, no touchdowns and an interception would suggest a great day by the secondary, it hardly tells the full story.

Time and again, the Badgers were beaten over the top, and if it wasn't for a potentially game-saving forced fumble by free safety Lubern Figaro at the Badgers' 10-yard line, it would have been a three-point game in the fourth quarter.

Last year's top corner Sojourn Shelton has struggled quite a bit this season, though there is definitely still time for him to improve to where he was last season and go beyond that, as he is only a sophomore.

Across from Shelton has been one of the best surprises of the season in Darius Hillary.  Hillary came into the season with tempered expectations, but, according to head coach Gary Andersen in his press conference, Hillary "had a championship effort this last game."

The Badgers will need more championship efforts out of Hillary to go along with improvement from Shelton—and help from Devin Gaulden and Derrick Tindal to boot—if they are to beat the Nebraskas and the Iowas of the world.

Northwestern Keys to Victory

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Trevor Siemian has left something to be desired at times, but he needs to have a big game for the Wildcats to win.

Stop the run

In what should be a treatise for all teams playing the Badgers, the way to win is to make quarterback Tanner McEvoy beat you.  But Northwestern actually has shown an ability to stop the run, which makes doing so all the more pressing.

Last week against Penn State, the Wildcats defense held the Nittany Lions to just 50 yards on 25 carries (2.0 yards per carry).  Though Penn State's offensive line is easily their biggest Achilles' heel, holding a team to two yards per carry is impressive nonetheless, and Northwestern will need to maintain that against the Badgers for a chance to win.

Spread the ball around

With Venric Mark, far and away their biggest weapon, transferring before the start of their season, the Wildcats knew that their offense would need to come from a variety of places.  That rang true on Saturday as 10 different receivers hauled in passes from Trevor Siemian, including seven for 113 yards by Dan Vitale.

In terms of their ground attack, six different players registered a carry, led by Justin Jackson's 15 carries for 50 yards while Siemian chipped in three scores on the ground, despite having a less-than-impressive five carries for minus-8 yards on the day.

With no one player for the Badgers to key in on, if Northwestern can control the clock, force turnovers like it did against Penn State and keep the Badgers guessing where the ball will go, Northwestern has a shot to pull off the home upset.

Wisconsin Players to Watch

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Derek Landisch has been better than advertised thus far this season.

Austin Traylor, Tight End

I try to use this space to highlight players that may not otherwise get quite as much air time.  While obviously Melvin Gordon, Corey Clement and Tanner McEvoy need good games for the Badgers to win, it is the understated tight end Austin Traylor who will make a big impact on the game.

Traylor only has one catch for nine yards this season, which also happens to be his only reception for his career, but Traylor's impact goes beyond the statsheet.  This week, coach Andersen said of Traylor,

"

I believe that Austin had his best game. Austin Traylor was physical. He moved the line of scrimmage, was fairly consistent in his run blocking. And played his best game from what I saw in this last game, which was good to see. And when I say that, there was a lot of slants coming into his face very quickly in this game from a defensive end. And he had to handle that. And thought he did a nice job.

"

For the head coach to say that much about the second-string tight end says a lot about how well Traylor has played, even though he has only registered one catch.  Look for him to continue to see more and more of the field as he progresses as both a blocker and a receiver.

Derek Landisch, Linebacker

Derek Landisch is not Chris Borland, nor will he ever be.  But for Badgers fans, the man in the middle has made the drop-off at inside linebacker not nearly as pronounced as it could be.

Landisch has 20 tackles this season, six of which have gone for a loss including a team-high three sacks and an interception.  Last week, Landisch had three tackles, two of which went for a loss including a sack and an interception in a game where the Bulls only ran 38 offensive plays.

If he can keep up his production, particularly as a blitzing linebacker in the backfield, then the Badgers will continue to have a top defense throughout the season.  If he can keep the Wildcats behind the chains, they will struggle to beat the Badgers.

Northwestern Players to Watch

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Linebacker Chi Chi Ariguzo will need to have one of the best games of his career to slow down the Badgers' tailbacks.

Trevor Siemian, Quarterback

His numbers don't pop off the page, but his steady hand and experience are going to be crucial if the Wildcats are to pull off the upset.  

This season, Siemian has 872 passing yards while completing 58.5 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and four interceptions.  Siemian also has three rushing touchdowns on the season on 22 carries for minus-42 yards.

Siemian had a pretty bleak game against the Badgers last season, going 13-of-34 for 163 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.  He also lost 21 yards on six carries.

The senior from Florida is going to need to stretch the Badgers secondary with his arm—something he's not particularly comfortable doing—but it is the only way to beat the Badgers unless they beat themselves.  Siemian's also going to need to avoid drive-killing sacks, something that plagued him last time out against the Badgers.

If Siemian can complete more than 60 percent of his passes while connecting on a couple of deep throws, Northwestern has more than a fair shot to steal an upset in front of the home crowd.

Chi Chi Ariguzo, Linebacker

Senior linebacker Chi Chi Ariguzo is going to need to have a huge game if the Wildcats want to slow down the Wisconsin rushing attack.  Ariguzo has amassed 35 tackles on the season and finished last season with 105 tackles, good for second on the team.

Now, Ariguzo is the unquestioned leader of a pretty good run defense, yielding only 128.3 yards per game, good for 40th best in the country.  He will need to make plays all over the field if they want to limit Gordon and Clement.  He will also need to key in on McEvoy to make sure he doesn't escape the pocket.

If Ariguzo can prevent the Wisconsin ground game from getting to the secondary, where Gordon's agility makes tackling him in open space a frightful proposition for a cornerback (or linebacker for that matter), then the Wildcats can stay in this game for four quarters.

What They're Saying

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Gary Andersen had mostly positive things to say in this week's press conference.

Wisconsin

Two things stood out in this week's press conference.  When talking about Northwestern, "They played well in all three phases and executed as a team at a very high level," Andersen said.  "They were able to run the ball.  They were able to throw the ball.  They got big plays when they needed it from the offense and the defense.  The special teams was very solid."

When it came to the passing game, "The one thing you did see in the Bowling Green game, I'm pretty sure we threw the ball I know we threw it early," Andersen said.  "I think we threw it the first play.  There's some opportunities to get Tanner involved in high percentage throws hopefully early on, and that's something that we'll look at and we'll see."

Northwestern

After losing to Northern Illinois to push the team to 0-2 on the season, the Wildcats re-calibrated and changed their team identity in a way.

When asked about whether they felt they needed to lose that game, "I'm not glad we lost," head coach Pat Fitzgerald said.  "But we made some changes in the way we practiced, just our attitude, which were necessary for us to get to where we want to go.  That definitely helped us be successful this past weekend.  So like I said, I'm not happy that we lost.  But we learned from it, which is very positive."

Prediction

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Corey Clement and the Badgers should have plenty to celebrate about this weekend.

Other than their game against a woefully overmatched Bowling Green defense, the Badgers offense has struggled to put together a complete game in their first four games. Wisconsin has gone 3-1 in the process but looked very shaky, particularly in the first halves against Western Illinois and South Florida.

Look for offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig to try and settle Tanner McEvoy down quickly with bubble screens and short throws designed to build his confidence and soften up the box for Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement to run through.

In a game that saw only 10 offensive plays run by South Florida in the second half, look for a rejuvenated Badgers defense to make plenty of plays in the backfield and never really let the Northwestern offense go anywhere while the Badgers offense finds its sea legs.

I'd expect this to be a low-scoring affair until the third quarter, when Gordon rips off a pair of big carries that gives Wisconsin more than enough breathing room.  

I'd look for a pair of 100-yard rushers—Gordon and either Clement or McEvoy—as the Badgers get to play Dare Ogunbowale in the final drive and coast to victory.

Wisconsin 31, Northwestern 6