MLB Playoffs 2014: Round-by-Round Picks and Predictions
If Major League Baseball's postseason means one thing, it's the opportunity to pick the winner of each series and determine ahead of time which team will be crowned World Series champs.
OK, the actual results matter too, but that doesn't make predictions any less fun. Which is why you're inexplicably drawn by the lure of finding out how everything is (possibly maybe perhaps) going to play out, even if Tuesday merely marks the official start of the 2014 playoffs as the Kansas City Royals host the Oakland Athletics in the American League Wild Card Game at 8 p.m. ET on TBS.
With unforeseen injuries and unexpected player performances bound to alter the landscape at any time, a lot can change between now and the night the new champions are raising the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of October.
But if you'd rather have the (potential) results before then, you've come to the right place. What follows is one guess as to how everything will unfold between now and the start of the World Series on Oct. 21.
And sure, trying to figure out how the Fall Classic will go this far in advance might seem silly, but we'll give that a shot too.
After all, our last set of predictions turned out to be on point, so who knows?
American League Wild Card Game
1 of 7
Matchup: Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30 at 8 p.m. ET
The first game of this postseason is going to come down to whether Oakland's floundering offense (3.2 runs per in its last 30 games) can somehow find a way to provide at least two or three runs of support for trade-deadline acquisition Jon Lester.
One of the best playoff pitchers around, the left-hander has allowed more than three runs in just one of his 11 postseason starts. Considering the Royals lineup has limited firepower—they rank 14th in runs scored (4.0 per) and dead last in homers (0.6 per)—it's hard to imagine Kansas City getting to Lester for more than that many Tuesday.
James Shields will once again fail to live up to his "Big Game" moniker that is rather unfitting, given that he's surrendered fewer than three runs in just two of his six career playoff outings.
As vaunted as the Royals bullpen is, Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland will be able to keep the game close. But if K.C. already is behind when that trio is sicced, the A's will have done their job—and the Royals' return to October for the first time in 29 years will technically never have happened. You know, since Tuesday is Sept. 30.
Prediction: Athletics win
National League Wild Card Game
2 of 7
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Game 1: Wednesday, Oct. 1 at 8 p.m. ET
As great as Edinson Volquez has been for Pittsburgh in the second half (2.20 ERA), he's still an enigma wrapped in a riddle hidden beneath a puzzle that's been scattered across a baseball diamond. In other words: Trusting Volquez to hold it together—let alone not implode—in what is the club's most important game of 2014 is taking a leap of faith that even Indiana Jones himself wouldn't dare.
As Paul Casella of MLB.com notes:
"One of the most-talked about topics surrounding this game is the Pirates' decision to start ace Gerrit Cole in Sunday's regular-season finale instead of saving him for Wednesday's Wild Card Game. That leaves Volquez—just one year removed from posting a Major League-worst 5.71 ERA—to start the Wild Card Game.
"
The Giants will counter with steady-as-they-come Madison Bumgarner, who gets the added benefit of facing a lineup that struggles more against left-handers (.691 OPS) than it does versus righties (.746).
Ultimately, the Pirates will wind up regretting that rather than saving him for this do-or-die, they burned Cole on Sunday (7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 12 K, 0 BB) in a fruitless attempt to force a Game 163 with the St. Louis Cardinals to win the division.
Prediction: Giants win
American League Division Series
3 of 7
Matchup: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Game 1: Thursday, Oct. 2
Upset city! The Angels have AL MVP-in-waiting Mike Trout, baseball's best record (98-64) and home field for as long as they're still playing.
Alas, that will be but one round thanks to a rotation that has been decimated by season-ending injuries to Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs.
More recently, Matt Shoemaker, an upstart Rookie of the Year candidate, has missed time due to injury, but he is hoping to pitch in Game 3 after ace Jered Weaver and inconsistent C.J. Wilson. Fighting through an oblique strain, Shoemaker told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he still feels some discomfort when he throws but that it's "almost gone."
Even with Jon Lester having been used to get past the Royals in the Wild Card Game, the A's still have two arms in Jeff Samardzija (3.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP since trade) and Sonny Gray (2.25 ERA past five turns) who are as good or better than any starter the Angels will throw.
The Angels and their best-offense-in-baseball behind Trout and Albert Pujols will give the A's fits, but ultimately, Oakland's midseason trades will prove to be the difference, somewhat vindicating general manager Billy Beane.
Prediction: Athletics in five games
Matchup: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Game 1: Thursday, Oct. 2
The Orioles need to get enough from their rotation of No. 3s to keep Detroit close into the late innings, where the soft underbelly of the Tigers—their Joe Nathan-led bullpen—is as vulnerable as any weakness of a remaining contender.
That can and will happen for a game, maybe even two, but the Tigers have the power arms on the mound (Max Scherzer, David Price and Justin Verlander) to hold down home run champ Nelson Cruz and the rest of the Orioles' too-homer-happy hitters.
At the plate, the postseason experience of Detroit's big bats will get the better of AL Manager of the Year favorite Buck Showalter's well-utilized and deep bullpen by delivering a few knockout blows by Miguel Cabrera (1.118 September OPS shows he's healthier than last year), Victor Martinez (.314/.377/.482 postseason career) and company.
This means the AL's two top seeds are gone.
Prediction: Tigers in four games
National League Division Series
4 of 7
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 3
It's never smart to count out San Francisco, which made two memorable championship runs in 2010 and 2012. But the Giants have too much to overcome to get past Washington, the NL's No. 1 team.
Between injuries to Matt Cain and more recently Angel Pagan, the second-half demises of the Tims (Lincecum and Hudson) and the need to wait until Game 3 to get their current ace, Bumgarner, on the bump, it's nearly impossible to see how the Giants can pull off another miracle.
That's especially true when their average offense (.699 OPS, 14th-best) will have to deal with Washington's ace after ace after ace in Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and...you get the idea.
Simply put, the Nationals are too healthy, too deep and too talented for the Giants, who won't win an even-yeared World Series for the first time since 2008.
Prediction: Nationals in four games
Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 3 at 6:30 p.m. ET
Now we're talkin'. Of all four division series, this rematch of last year's NLCS—only a round earlier this time—is going to be the one to watch.
Not only is NL Cy Young front-runner and MVP fave Clayton Kershaw getting an immediate opportunity to prove he's past last October's season-ending Game 6 massacre at the hands of the Cards, he'll do so while going head-to-head with St. Louis' stud Adam Wainwright in a thank-God-it's-Friday Game 1 showdown.
A Zack Greinke-Lance Lynn matchup in Game 2 would also present a promising slate, but after that, the series could swing on the still-sore shoulders of the Dodgers' Hyun-Jin Ryu and Cardinals' Michael Wacha.
The difference will come down to Kershaw shutting down St. Louis in a dramatic Game 5 while L.A.'s offense, which has been clicking of late thanks to Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig, does enough to get to Wainwright the second time around.
Prediction: Dodgers in five games
American League Championship Series
5 of 7
Matchup: Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 10
If you thought the last series sounded like a fun one, just wait until this dandy.
There's all kinds of history here between the A's and Tigers, who have knocked Oakland out in the ALDS each of the past two Octobers—with both series going the full five.
While an opportunity for a thrilling, to-the-max seven-gamer exists, Detroit will wrap up yet another showdown between the AL's two best rotations because Verlander owns the A's in the playoffs (1.24 ERA, 0.77, 12.1 K/9 in five starts), and Oakland's offense just doesn't have the firepower the Tigers do when a hit is needed in a big spot.
Winding up on the wrong end for a third straight year will have the A's frustrated, pounding their fists and growling "Next time!" like Dr. Claw.
Prediction: Tigers in six games
National League Championship Series
6 of 7
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 11
It's only fitting that the two teams that were clearly the class of the Senior Circuit in 2014—and played one of the very best games of the year too—should face off to determine who gets to take on the Tigers in the World Series.
While the Dodgers have bigger names and, thus, bigger stars, the Nationals actually are deeper and better suited for a to-the-limit championship series. While L.A.'s offense might be slightly stronger (third-ranked .327 wOBA versus eighth-best .317), Washington has the edge with the arms, even with Kershaw on the other side.
To wit, although the Dodgers' 3.40 ERA was the sixth-best mark, Washington's 3.03 team ERA was tops in the majors. And the Nats' bullpen (3.00 ERA, No. 4) is leaps and bounds ahead of the Dodgers' (3.80, No. 22).
"When you're 19th [in bullpen ERA, at the time] that's down in the pack," reliever J.P. Howell said Sept. 20 after he allowed four runs in the seventh inning to the Chicago Cubs, who came from behind to win 8-7, via JP Hoornstra of the Los Angeles Daily News. "For the most part we've been OK. Nothing special, that's for sure, but we've been OK. You don't want that number."
When two teams are so evenly matched, that's the sort of disparity that could be a difference-maker. Plus, when in doubt, always go with pitching in the playoffs.
Prediction: Nationals in seven games
World Series
7 of 7
Matchup: Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers
Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 21
These two teams didn't see each other at all in 2014, which adds an element of surprise to this predicted—but not necessarily predictable—World Series clash.
Having discussed their strengths and weaknesses at length on the way to getting here, suffice it to say that while both are driven by dynamite rotations, the Nationals and Tigers possess the most well-rounded rosters in their respective leagues.
As such, the series as a whole would be so evenly matched and the individual games so close that it could come down to the bullpens. Although the Nats have had some issues with former closer Rafael Soriano lately, replacement Drew Storen and premier setup man Tyler Clippard form a better back-of-the-pen than do the aging, shaky Joe Nathan and playoff newbie Joakim Soria.
Besides, what poetry it would be should Storen, displaced in the ninth not long after his postseason-ending implosion in Game 5 of the 2012 NLDS, help seal the deal for the Nationals now that he's taken the closer gig back from Soriano, who the Nats signed to replace him.
After infamously and controversially shutting down Strasburg prior to the 2012 postseason, the Nationals won't have to wonder any longer whether they lost their chance. Time—and winning it all—heals all wounds.
Prediction: Nationals in six games
Statistics are accurate through Sept. 28 and come from MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
.png?w=600 "Who Will Panthers Take at No. 9 ? 🤔")
.png?w=600 "Draft Lottery Winners and Losers")
.jpg?w=600 "Why Walker Knew He'd Leave Seahawks")