AL Wild Card Game 2014: Royals vs. Athletics Breakdown and Predictions

The 2014 MLB postseason begins Tuesday, with the Kanas City Royals set to host the Oakland Athletics in the American League Wild Card Game (8:07 p.m. ET, TV: TBS).

Kansas City captured the top AL Wild Card spot to secure its first postseason berth in 29 years, and came within one game of the division-winning Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.

Oakland is returning to the playoffs for the third straight year after finishing one game back of Royals in the Wild Card.

The Royals won the regular-season series against the A’s, 5-2, taking two of three games in Oakland during their first meeting (Aug. 1-3), and then winning three of four at Kauffman Stadium (Aug. 11-14).

Both teams will send their respective aces to the mound Tuesday, with James Shields starting for the Royals and Jon Lester for the A’s in what could be an epic pitcher’s duel.

But which club is best prepared to move on to the ALDS?

Here’s an in-depth look at the AL Wild Card Game matchup between the Royals and A’s.

Jon Lester vs. Royals Lineup

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

This A’s acquired Lester from the Red Sox in a trade deadline blockbuster, as they decided to part with cleanup hitter Yoenis Cespedes in order to land one of the game’s premier left-handed pitchers.

After joining the A’s in late July, Lester posted a 2.35 ERA (3.13 FIP) with 71 strikeouts and 16 walks in 76.2 innings over 11 starts.

Overall, he finished the regular season with a 16-11 record, 2.46 ERA (2.80 FIP), 1.10 WHIP and 220-to-48 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 219.2 innings.

Lester is 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA in 13 career starts against the Royals, and he won all three starts against them this season while posting a 2.61 ERA. He was also the winning pitcher in both of the A’s wins against the Royals this season.

"It's one of those things you can't help but see what he's done -- he's pitched in the World Series, he's pitched in big games," said A's third baseman Josh Donaldson per John Schlegel of MLB.com. "He's going to pitch in another big game for us [Tuesday]."

Here's a look at how the Royals' projected starting lineup has fared against Lester in their careers:

1. SS Alcides Escobar	5-for-17 (.294), 2 2B, 2 RBI, 3 BB
2. RF Nori Aoki	4-for-9, 2 RBI, BB
3. CF Lorenzo Cain	5-for-16 (.313), 3 2B, BB, 6 K
4. 1B Eric Hosmer	4-for-13 (.308), HR, 3 BB, 3 K
5. DH Billy Butler	4-for-28 (.143), 2B, 5 BB, 11 K
6. LF Alex Gordon	4-for-25 (.160), 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 10 K
7. C Salvador Perez	3-for-6, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB, K
8. 2B Omar Infante	2-for-15 (.133), K
9. 3B Mike Moustakas	3-for-12, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K

Surprisingly, many Royal hitters have had success in their careers against Lester. The team’s 2-3-4 hitters, Aoki (.444), Cain (.313) and Hosmer (.308), each own a .300-plus batting average against Lester, which is especially notable considering both Aoki and Hosmer are left-handed batters.

At the same time, several of the Royals’ veteran hitters have struggled against Lester, as Butler (.143, 11 K), Gordon (.160, 10 K) and Infante (.133) each own battling averages well below the Mendoza Line.

The Royals have hit for little power versus Lester; they’ve amassed plenty of doubles, but only Hosmer has taken him deep.

The Royals led Major League Baseball with 153 stolen bases during the regular season, and it’s a safe bet they’ll test Oakland’s catchers, who threw out only 22 percent of attempted base stealers this season, in Tuesday’s game.

Despite the Royals' prior success against Lester, the left-hander is one of baseball’s more accomplished postseason pitchers, with a 2.11 ERA in 11 career starts (13 appearances). In 2013, he guided the Red Sox to a World Series title—his second with the organization—with a 4-1 record and 1.56 ERA in five starts.

James Shields vs. A’s Lineup

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Starting the Royals’ first postseason game in 29 years will be none other than the man nicknamed “Big Game James.”

Shields, 32, turned in another strong year as the Royals’ ace, going 14-8 in 34 starts while registering a 3.21 ERA (3.59 FIP), 1.18 WHIP and 180-to-44 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 227 innings.

After an up-and-down first half, the right-hander finally settled in following the All-Star break to post a 2.62 ERA (3.38 FIP) and 1.06 WHIP in 96.1 innings spanning 14 starts.

The last time Shields pitched in the postseason was Game 2 of the 2011 ALDS against the Rangers, when he was still a member of the Rays. Taking the loss in the game, Shields allowed seven earned runs over five innings.

He was traded to the Royals along with Wade Davis prior to the 2013 season.

"When I came over here, I knew exactly what was going on," said Shields via John Schlegel of MLB.com. "I knew that this city's been wanting a championship team for a long time, and a playoff team. Hopefully we did the city proud. We've got a long way to go still, but we're going to keep grinding."

Here's a look at how Shields has fared against Oakland’s projected starting hitters during his nine-year career:

1. CF Coco Crisp	3-for-24 (.125), 5 K
2. LF Sam Fuld	2-for-10, 2 BB
3. 3B Josh Donaldson	2-for-9, HR, 2 K
4. DH Adam Dunn	7-for-35 (.200), HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 16 K
5. RF Josh Reddick	7-for-22 (.318), 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 K
6. 1B Brandon Moss	3-for-14 (.214), 5 K
7. SS Jed Lowrie	3-for-16 (.188), 4 K
8. C Geovany Soto*	1-for-9, 4 K
9. 2B Eric Sogard	0-for-5

*A's manager Bob Melvin is yet to decide between Soto and Derek Norris, but Soto received more playing time down the stretch and is the better defensive backstop.

A’s hitters have generally struggled against Shields, with Dunn (.200), Donaldson (.222) and Moss (.214), each owning a batting average just north of .200 against the right-hander.

Left-handed-hitting Josh Reddick is the only A’s player who’s had success against Shields, with a solid .318 batting average and five extra-base hits (more than any of his teammates), including three home runs.

It’s also worth noting that the A’s switch-hitters, Crisp (.124) and Lowrie (.188), have struggled mightily against Shields.

Bullpen Breakdown

LM Otero/Associated Press

The AL Wild Card matchup between the Royals and A’s will feature two of the better bullpens in Major League Baseball.

Athletics	Stat Category	Royals
2.91	ERA	3.30
3.47	FIP	3.29
.609	OPS	.651
7.65	K/9	8.65
2.35	BB/9	3.30
77.8%	LOB%	73.7%
46.7%	GB%	45.5%

The Royals boast the lethal late-inning duo of setup man Wade Davis (1.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP), who struck out 109 batters and allowed just five extra-base hits (three doubles, two triples) in 72 innings, and lights-out closer Greg Holland, who saved 46 games in 48 opportunities in addition to posting a stellar 1.44 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 62.1 innings. Right-hander Kelvin Herrera also dominated in a late-inning role, with a 1.41 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 70 innings.

On the season, the Royals bullpen ranked fifth in the AL in ERA (3.30 ERA) and eighth in opponents’ batting average (.235) and WHIP (1.24), while allowing fewer home runs (32) than any other team.

But perhaps what's most impressive is the Royals' 72-1 record when leading after seven innings, which improved to 79-1 when leading after eight.

Meanwhile, the A’s bullpen arguably was even better, at least statistically, ranking first in the AL in opponents’ batting average (.219), opponents’ OPS (.609), walks allowed (122) and WHIP (1.08). They also ranked second in ERA (2.59).

Left-hander Sean Doolittle had an All-Star campaign as the A’s closer, saving 22 games in 26 opportunities while posting a 2.73 ERA and absurd 89-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 62.2 innings. But he spent time on the disabled list during the second half and struggled mightily in September.

The team also received strong performances from right-handers Luke Gregerson (3 saves, 2.12 ERA, 1.01 WHIP in 72.1 IP) and Dan Otero (8-2 record, 2.28 ERA in 86.1 IP), while southpaw Fernando Abad registered a 1.57 ERA in 57.1 innings over 69 appearances.

Bench Breakdown

Pat Sullivan/Associated Press

Royals Projected Bench

C Erik Kratz

IF Jayson Nix

OF Jarrod Dyson

OF Terrance Gore

OF Josh Willingham

The Royals bench stands out for its speed, as it’ll feature two of baseball’s fastest players in outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore.

Dyson was 36-for-43 in stolen base attempts during the regular season, while his excellent defense in center field saved the Royals 14 runs.

Meanwhile, Gore, a 23-year-old speedster called up to the major leagues on Sept. 1, was a perfect 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts with the Royals after stealing 47 in the minors.

Infielder Jason Nix and outfielder/designated hitter Josh Willingham will likely earn spots on the Royals bench given their respective abilities to hit left-handed pitching, while Erik Katz will serve as the team’s backup catcher should something happen to Salvador Perez.

A's Projected Bench

C Derek Norris

C/1B Stephen Vogt

1B Nate Freiman

IF Nick Punto

OF Jonny Gomes

The A’s lineup would look much different if they were facing a left-hander such as Jason Vargas in Tuesday’s game, as manager Bob Melvin typically constructs his lineup based on splits.

But with Shields on the mound, right-handed hitters Norris, Freiman and Gomes will begin on the bench but should enter the game in the later innings should the Royals bring in a lefty. This will be Gomes' fourth trip to the postseason. 

Vogt will likely enter the game as a pinch-hitter at some point, presumably against one of the Royals’ late-inning righties, while Punto should serve as a defensive replacement and could possibly be called on late in the game to grind out an at-bat.

Bob Melvin vs. Ned Yost

LM Otero/Associated Press

The Royals’ first playoff game in 29 years will also be Ned Yost’s first as a manager. The Royals skipper owns an overall managerial record of 830-904 (.479 winning percentage).

A’s skipper Bob Melvin is a two-time Manager of the Year and a postseason veteran compared to Yost, with four appearances to his name. He’s led the A’s to a playoff appearance in three straight years and has an overall managerial record of 818-768 (.516 winning percentage) over 11 seasons.

Home-Field Advantage

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Kauffman Stadium Outfield Dimensions

Left Field	330 ft.
Left-Center Field	385 ft.
Center Field	410 ft.
Right-Center Field	385 ft.
Right Field	330 ft.

Kauffman Stadium 2014 Park Factors

Category	Park Factor	MLB Rank
Runs	1.042	11th
Home Runs	0.843	22nd
Hits	1.008	9th
Doubles	1.038	Tied-13th
Triples	1.069	14th
Walks	0.952	24th

The spacious dimensions of Kauffman Stadium make it a pitcher-friendly park, which is reflected by one of the lower (22nd) home run factors in the major leagues. However, other notable factors such as runs, hits, doubles and triples highlight that the park also caters to hitters who use the entire field and the run the bases well.

Kansas City is 42-39 this season at home, while the A’s are 40-41 on the road. The Royals won three of four games at Kauffman Stadium.

Considering the history behind Kansas City’s playoff berth, you can expect a special atmosphere at Kauffman Stadium.

*All park information is courtesy of ESPN: "Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher. Teams with home games in multiple stadiums list aggregate Park Factors."

Game Prediction and Analysis

LM Otero/Associated Press

Runs are likely to be few and far between Tuesday with the Royals and A’s sending their respective aces to the mound.

The Royals will try to utilize their MLB-best speed and push across as many runs as possible early in the game, so expect them to do whatever is necessary in order to move runners along.

And even though the A’s offensive philosophy is based on getting on base and hitting home runs, the win-or-go-home nature of the Wild Card play-in game have them trying to scratch out runs wherever possible—yes, that likely means bunting.

Basically, it’s going to be a battle down to the last out.

While Shields has posted impressive career numbers against the A’s projected starters, it’s hard to discount Lester’s previous postseason success. He’s shown the ability to take control of a game when given an early lead, and that could be exactly how Tuesday’s game plays out.

Game Prediction: A’s 2, Royals 1

Statistics are courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.