Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Spread Analysis, Pick Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are off to a rough start for new head coach Lovie Smith, going winless and cashless through their first three games.

And things don't get any easier for the Bucs this week, as they travel to Pittsburgh to tackle the 2-1 Steelers.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as eight-point favorites; the total was 44.5 (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 28.9-15.2 Steelers

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Bucs opened with a 20-14 loss at home to Carolina, although they rallied late to make that one close. Then, they lost in frustrating fashion to St. Louis, 19-17, missing out on a chance to kick a game-winning field goal when the refs ran the last few seconds off the clock.

Tampa Bay led that game late, 17-16, despite having both a punt and a field-goal attempt blocked. The Bucs also rushed for 157 yards that day, with 144 of that coming on 22 carries by Bobby Rainey.

Last Thursday, Tampa Bay ran into a buzz saw in Atlanta, losing 56-14, but those things happen on occasion to teams going through transitions.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

After starting last year 0-4, the Steelers have won two of their first three games this season, including a 37-19 romp at Carolina Sunday night. Pittsburgh outrushed the Panthers 264-42, as both Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount hit the 100-yard mark, and the team won the time-of-possession battle by a 35/25 margin while also returning a Carolina fumble for a touchdown.

That's how you win games and cover spreads in the NFL. In fact, at the moment, the Steelers lead the NFL in rushing at 163 yards per game. Teams that have outrushed their opponents are 32-15-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.

Smart Pick

All signs point toward Pittsburgh for this game, while Tampa Bay looks like it might have trouble with some good college teams. The Bucs, in fact, have to go back to young Mike Glennon at quarterback, with Josh McCown out with a thumb injury.

As bettors begin to take notice, there's a chance the Steelers might get steamed later this week. That's why, in the crazy world that is NFL betting, the pick here is on the more unlikely outcome, with Tampa Bay and the points.

Trends

• The total has gone under in six of Tampa Bay's last nine games.
• Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing Tampa Bay.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.