NFL Crapshoot, Week 4: Green Bay Packers to Recover Following Annual Slow Start

Another Thursday, another fresh batch of turnovers. No, not the bubbly, piping-hot-but-they-smell-so-good-you'll-risk-burning-your-mouth turnovers at Kentucky Fried Chicken. I'm talking about giveaways. 

Thursday night's disaster of a football game was the second-consecutive blowout for the program. Even more alarming, it was the second consecutive week that both teams combined to commit at least seven turnovers. Through three Thursday Night College Football games, 16 turnovers have been registered.

The games are borderline unwatchable.

Luckily for the NFL, America's more obsessed with the product like fantasy football analysts are with unproven rookies. But like every other scandal and controversy within the sport, change will only be sparked by lower ratings and, as a result, fleeing sponsors.

Credit: NFL.com

Right on cue, ratings for last Thursday's debacle dropped 40 percent according to Michael O'Connell of The Hollywood Reporter. The trend should continue after another meltdown put the game out of contention in the first half.

Outside of the 25 fantasy points Larry Donnell got me, it's getting more and more difficult to defend nationally televised football on three-day's rest.

After throwing four interceptions, Washington Redskins Quarterback Kirk Cousins will have to wait until next week to sing his redemption song. The rest of the games during Week 4, however, will have plenty of those storylines to go around.

Here's what I know will Happen

I know the Green Bay Packers will beat the Chicago Bears outright

The Bears, and their makeshift secondary, will be coming off a long West Coast trip followed by a long East Coast trip. The Packers, on the other hand, will be coming off their annual slow start to a season.

Starting slow can just as easily be considered Green Bay Packers football in recent years as pounding the ball was in the 1960s.

If you take out the Packers 15-1 season in 2011, they've fumbled around in the early parts of each of their five consecutive playoff seasons.

Green Bay started the 2009 season with a 4-4 record before going on a a five-game win streak and eventually making the playoffs. Green Bay started the 2010 season with a 3-3 record before going on a four-game win streak and eventually winning the Super Bowl. Green Bay started the 2012 season 2-3 before going on a five-game win streak and eventually making the playoffs. Green Bay started the 2013 season with a 1-2 record before going on a four-game win streak and—you get it by now.

For bonus points, even Brett Favre's Packers begun the 2004 season with a 1-4 record before finishing at 10-6 and winning the NFC North. 

The slow starts of this generation's Packers always seem to come with one of Aaron Rodgers' aloof, yet reassuring, quotes. Following their slow start in 2012, Rodgers told members of the media "outside the sky is falling, inside that locker room we're fine." He followed up with the infamous "shhhhh" interview after he lit up the then-undefeated Houston Texans for six touchdowns.

This season, Rodgers simply told Packer fans to "relax" (from Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com).

So why, then, are there still videos and articles like this one from NFL.com, and this one from Vic Ketchman of Packers.com and this one from Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, trying to figure out what's wrong with the Packers?

A slow start en route to a likely winning streak with Rodgers insisting they'll be okay? Sounds about right.

Here's what I think will happen

I think the New York Jets will beat the Detroit Lions outright

The Detroit Lions are traditionally shaky as favorites. Since the start of the 2009 season, the Lions are just 18-20-2 against the spread (47 percent ATS) as favorites. In the rare instance where they won a divisional game outright during that span, they're just 2-5-1 ATS in the follow-up game.

The Jets are already trying to hold off an inevitable quarterback controversy after Geno Smith's poor performance on national television. They now have value as a home underdog with something to prove.

The Lions will enter Week 4 with inflated value after an ugly win where they beat the Packers despite committing three turnovers compared to the Packers one turnover.

Expect a physical Jets defensive front to make Matt Stafford and a dome-oriented Lions team uncomfortable all game long. 

Here's what I'm probably wrong about

I'm probably wrong, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) will cover against the Pittsburgh Steelers (via Oddschecker)

As of this writing, the Buccaneers are the second-biggest underdog of Week 4, and for good reason. Tampa Bay was blown out to embarrassing proportions on national television, losing 56-14 to division rivals the Atlanta Falcons.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers enjoyed a nationally televised one-sided victory over an overrated Carolina Panthers team. According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, the Panthers were ranked just 18th in Las Vegas power ratings despite a 2-0 start headed into Week 3.

The Steelers' victory has naturally led to the team being overvalued, while the Buccaneers gain value following a turnover-influenced blowout.

Last Thursday's loss has almost surely led to more intense and motivated practices for the Buccaneers, who not only need to redeem themselves, but also attempt to salvage their season in the still wide-open NFC South (remember, the Saints—widely considered the class of that division—are just 1-2).

The Bucs will get a spark from Mike Glennon, who is expected to start according to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times. In 2013, the Buccaneers went 4-4 in their last eight games under Glennon after starting 0-7.

Tampa Bay will keep things close in Pittsburgh, and may even leave with an unlikely victory.

Week 3 NFL Crapshoot Record: 2-1

Overall 2014 NFL Crapshoot Record: 3-3

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