What It Would Take for the Boston Red Sox to Land James Shields

As the lost 2014 season comes to a close for the Boston Red Sox, the attention of their fans has drifted toward next year.  What must Boston do to become a contender again in 2015?

With nothing resembling an ace currently on the roster, the team's top priority this offseason looks to be adding a front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher.  Of the premier free agents on the market, the Kansas City Royals' James Shields may be the best bet to end up in a Red Sox uniform.

Why Not Max Scherzer or Jon Lester?

In 2010 and 2011, Boston signed Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to a pair of monstrous seven-year contacts totaling a combined $296 million.  During the course of an awful last-place season in 2012, both were traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of an organizational shift in philosophy—no more exorbitant long-term deals.

From a Bloomberg Businessweek article by Joshua Green last April, Red Sox principal owner John Henry said:

"

We learned a lesson in ever-growing, long-term contracts with free agents. ... To me, the most important thing this study [one presented by Martin Kleinbard at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference] shows is that virtually all of the underpaid players are under 30 and virtually all the overpaid players are over 30. Yet teams continue to extravagantly overpay for players above the age of 30.

"

Jon Lester turns 31 in January and Max Scherzer will be the same age next July.  This summer, CBS Sports Baseball Insider Jon Heyman wrote that Lester would command at a minimum a five-year deal worth $125 million and possibly as mush as a seven-year contract for $189 million.  Back in March, Scherzer reportedly rejected a six-year, $144 million offer to re-sign with the Detroit Tigers on the assumption that he'll do better on the open market.

Based on Henry's ideals, both players are likely to cost a lot more than Boston is willing to spend for that duration.  If the Red Sox really were interested in paying Lester $150 million, wouldn't they have done it a long time ago? 

What Makes Shields a Better Alternative?

In this case, Shields' age may be the reason Boston is more likely to pursue him than the other two big-name starters—and not because he's younger.  Shields will turn 33 in December, so in theory his market value should dictate a shorter contract than Lester or Scherzer.  However, opinions on this vary.

From Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe: "In Shields...the Red Sox can get a reliable starter for a shorter-term deal. Look for them to overpay on the average annual value to get a three-year deal."

WEEI's Rob Bradford: "Shields won't get the haul of a Lester or Max Scherzer, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that a four-year deal is in the offing..."

The Boston Herald's Michael Silverman: "...he is going to command a four- or five-year deal that is going to make him a very rich man but still not as rich as Lester and Scherzer."

And finally, The Globe's Nick Cafardo: "Shields should land at least a five-year deal, and some team in desperate need of pitching may give him more than that. Maybe as much as Lester gets."

How Much is it Going to Cost?

Whether it'll take an offer of three, four or five years in order to land Shields, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal recently reported that Boston is definitely interested, saying "the early industry buzz has Shields going to the Red Sox."

Realistically, what sort of money will Boston need to spend?  For comparison, here are the average annual salaries (in millions) of some recent major signings: Clayton Kershaw $30.7, Justin Verlander $25.7, Felix Hernandez $25, Zack Greinke $24.5, C.C. Sabathia $24.4, Cole Hamels $24 and Cliff Lee $24.

It appears that the going rate for an ace is roughly $25 million per year.

Lester and Scherzer are likely to get paid that much, but Shields is a notch below.  Unfortunately, if the Red Sox are looking to grab Shields on a shorter contract, they'll probably have to pay top dollar.  Would three years and $75 million be enough to entice Shields to come to Boston?  Or how about four in the $85-$90 range?  Five years and $100 million might well be his asking price.

This may seem like an extravagant amount of money to Henry and the Red Sox ownership, but it's still roughly $50-$75 million less than Lester or Scherzer will cost.  And fresh of its second last-place finish in three seasons, the club can't afford to be as fickle this winter as it was a year ago as the defending World Series champions.

Contract information via Baseball Prospectus