Explaining, Predicting How Each MLB Playoff Tiebreak Scenario Would Play out
A long time ago, in an MLB far, far away, the playoffs were simple. Win your league, advance to the World Series.
The advent of the divisions complicated matters slightly. But the process was still fairly straightforward. Certainly it wouldn't require an entire article to explain it.
Ahem. Welcome to 2014, where six divisions and four wild-card slots make the playoff picture as clear as pine tar.
With so many possible ties and tiebreakers for so many possible slots, it's easy to go cross-eyed. Allow us to elucidate.
For our purposes, we'll consider only scenarios that have a decent, or at least non-infinitesimal, chance of happening.
So no trips to the Bizarro World where the Milwaukee Brewers or New York Yankees run the table and everyone else wears their gloves on their heads. Also, we're leaving off a few permutations to avoid redundancy.
Another caveat: Things are going to shift a lot in the coming days; these scenarios are based on teams' records entering play Wednesday.
The point, though, isn't simply to look at possible matchups and guess who's most likely to emerge victorious (although we'll do exactly that).
The point is to unravel the necessary but ridiculously complex set of rules that help decide who moves on and who goes home in today's MLB.
Ready? OK.
Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals Tie for the No. 1 AL Wild-Card Slot
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How It Goes Down
This one's pretty straightforward: The two teams would simply play the one-game wild-card playoff. The Royals would host since they've won the season series against Oakland, 5-2.
It's also pretty plausible: Entering play Wednesday, the A's and Royals owned identical 86-71 records.
Who Wins
The A's plan to go with Jon Lester in "any one-game playoff," per Susan Slusser of SFGate.com. Assuming Kansas City counters with its ace, we'd get a Lester versus James Shields showdown.
Advantage Lester, who owns a 2.12 career ERA in 13 playoff appearances. Shields, meanwhile, despite his Big Game James nickname, has not fared well under the postseason glare, posting a 4.98 ERA in six starts.
Playing in front of a raucous, playoff-starved crowd at Kauffman Stadium will undoubtedly boost Kansas City. But we're going with Lester's poise and pedigree and giving a slight edge to the A's, despite their second-half struggles.
Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Tie for the No. 2 AL Wild-Card Slot
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How It Goes Down
The two teams would meet for a one-game tiebreaker, which would be held on Sept. 29 in Seattle, since the Mariners have won the season series, 5-2.
The winner would then go on to face the No. 1 wild-card team, likely Oakland, on the road.
Seattle is currently 83-74, three games behind both Oakland and Kansas City. So it'd take a crazy run to make this happen—and it could just as easily happen with the A's and Mariners.
Who Wins
This pitching matchup may be even worse than Lester for Kansas City, assuming the M's send out Felix Hernandez.
Kansas City breaking its 29-year playoff drought is a great Cinderella story. But King Felix at spacious Safeco Field with everything on the line? Doesn't bode well for a fairytale ending.
Oakland, Seattle and Kansas City in a 3-Way AL Wild-Card Tie
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How It Goes Down
Things get more complicated here. Strap on your thinking caps.
First, let's talk about A, B and C designations. Team A plays Team B in Team A's home park on Sept. 29, and Team C plays the winner in the winner's home park on Sept. 30.
How are the A, B and C designations assigned? They're chosen by the clubs themselves, with choosing order determined by head-to-head records.
In this case, Seattle would pick first, since it has won its season series against both Oakland (10-9) and Kansas City (5-2). Kansas City would pick second, since it has the season-series edge over Oakland (5-2). And the A's, of course, would get whatever's left.
Who Wins
Predicting is tricky because we don't know which designations Seattle and Kansas City would choose. But let's assume Seattle elects to be Team C, since that would mean only having to win one game instead of two. Yes, it would be on the road, but the M's actually have a better record away from Safeco this year.
Then we'll assume Kansas City takes Team A, since it gets the first game at home. That means an Oakland/Kansas City matchup in K.C., where we've already given a narrow edge to Oakland.
The A's would then host the Mariners. They'd have presumably already burned Lester. And, again, we're not betting against King Felix, especially against a lineup that has been mostly punchless since the All-Star break.
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Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Tie for the AL Central
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How It Goes Down
Take a breath, we're back into simpler territory. The Tigers, who hold a one-game lead over the Royals entering Wednesday, would host a one-game tiebreaker, since they've won the season series, 13-6.
The winner would move on to the division series, and the loser would play in the one-game wild-card playoff, assuming they qualify.
Who Wins
It's tempting to say Detroit would toss out David Price, its big deadline acquisition, to pitch the biggest game of the year. But Max Scherzer has been the better pitcher, posting a 2.70 ERA in September compared to Price's 3.72.
Then again, the Tigers might want to save Scherzer for either the wild-card playoff or Game 1 of the ALDS.
Either way, this game favors the Tigers, who have the postseason experience and will be playing in front of a home crowd eager to see its club finally make it to the promised land after multiple near misses.
As Justin Verlander put it after the Tigers crushed the Royals 10-1 on Sept. 20, per MLB.com's Jason Beck, "We seem to play our best baseball when we need to, and this is obviously a need-to moment."
Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland Tie for 2 Wild-Card Slots, AL Central
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How It Goes Down
This one's not quite as tangled as it sounds.
Detroit and Kansas City would play a one-game tiebreaker on Sept. 29 in Detroit to determine the division winner. The loser would then play the A's in the wild-card playoff. Either Detroit or Kansas City would host that game, since both have gone 5-2 against Oakland this year.
Who Wins
We've already given the edge to Detroit at home against Kansas City. Likewise, we've given the edge to Oakland over Kansas City.
Interesting side note: If the Royals were to beat the Tigers and the Tigers went on to beat the A's in the wild-card playoff, it'd be history repeating: Detroit has eliminated Oakland from each of the last two postseasons.
Mostly, a possible winner-take-all matchup between Scherzer or Price and Lester has us drooling.
Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland and Seattle Tie for 2 Wild-Card Slots, AL Central
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How It Goes Down
We're pushing the far-fetched fringe here. On the odd chance it happens, two games go down on Sept. 29: A Royals/Tigers interlude to decide who wins the AL Central, and a Mariners/A's matchup to decide who moves on to the wild-card playoff. Again, the Tigers and Mariners would host.
The two losers would live to fight another day. The winner of that game would then advance to the wild-card playoff.
Who Wins
We've already picked the Tigers over the Royals in Detroit, and the Mariners over the A's (and this time they'd be in Seattle).
So now it comes down to the A's and Royals in Kansas City. We picked the A's in this scenario, but that was with Lester on the hill. Let's assume Oakland uses him in Seattle.
The A's can still dip into their deep rotation for another quality arm, possibly Jeff Samardzija. As good as he's been, though, before and after coming over from the Chicago Cubs, Samardzija lacks Lester's big-game resume.
Kansas City might also burn its ace, Shields, in the game against Detroit, but it'll be at home. And Oakland has simply been a bad team in the second half after looking like world-beaters out of the gate.
Let's give this one to the Royals.
K.C. would then head to Seattle, since, you'll recall, the M's won the season series. King Felix may have been spent, but we'll pick Seattle in this one, since it'll have had a day off, while the Royals will be playing their third consecutive elimination game on the road.
St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates Tie for NL Central
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How It Goes Down
St. Louis would host the one-game tiebreaker, since it won the season series, 11-8. The winner would move on to the division series, the loser would head to the wild-card playoff, assuming they qualify.
Who Wins
St. Louis, which holds a 1.5-game lead over Pittsburgh entering Wednesday, is hoping to save Adam Wainwright for Game 1 of the NLDS.
If the hard-charging Pirates catch them, though, expect the Cards to use their ace in the tiebreaker. Wainwright owns a superlative 2.53 ERA in 18 postseason appearances.
Even if Pittsburgh keeps its momentum rolling—which it would have to do to force this game—our money's on Wainwright at home.
San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Tie for No. 1 NL Wild-Card Slot
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How It Goes Down
The Pirates, as mentioned, are charging hard. And the Giants, despite a 4-2 loss Tuesday night that pushed them 4.5 games back of the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, are still mathematically in the hunt for the NL West.
A Pirates/Giants wild-card playoff, though, looks like the most probable outcome. If they finish with identical records, the Bucs would host, since they won the season series, 4-2.
Who Wins
Let's assume the Giants send stud left-hander Madison Bumgarner to the hill. How do the Pirates counter?
Manager Clint Hurdle has options. Francisco Liriano has been the hot hand lately, posting a ridiculous 0.35 ERA in September. And Liriano has been on that stage before, pitching the Pirates through the wild-card playoff game last year.
Gerrit Cole and Edinson Volquez are also options.
"We're fortunate that we have a handful of guys that we feel very comfortable with the ball in their hand in what arguably will be the most important game of the year," general manager Neal Huntington told MLB.com's Stephen Pianovich.
Whomever the Pirates toss out, we're giving them the edge. They've simply been the hotter team, winning eight of their last 10 games, while the Giants have gone 3-7 over that same stretch.
Then again, as Lyle Spencer of MLB.com pointed out earlier this month, when the Giants were still nipping at the Dodgers' heels:
"The Giants strongly identify with even-numbered years. If 2014 plays out like '10 and '12, manager Bruce Bochy should be a lock for the Hall of Fame.
Bochy has these Giants looking remarkably similar to the World Series champions of 2010 and '12, bringing good cheer to the orange-and-black faithful.
"
So there's that.
St. Louis, Pittsburgh and San Francisco Tie for 2 Wild-Card Slots, NL Central
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How It Goes Down
You remember the drill: St. Louis and Pittsburgh would play a one-game tiebreaker on Sept. 29 in St. Louis to determine the division winner. The loser would then play the Giants in the wild-card playoff.
Pittsburgh would host that game, since it won the season series against San Francisco. The Cardinals, on the other hand, lost the season series to the Giants, 4-3, and would thus head to AT&T Park.
Who Wins
We've already given the Pirates/Cardinals clash to St. Louis.
That sets up the same scenario we just discussed: Pittsburgh hosting San Francisco in the wild-card playoff.
In this case, the Pirates would be coming off a gut-wrenching loss and may have already used whatever arm they decide is their best bet in a do-or-die contest.
It's a coin toss, so we're giving it to the Giants for their aforementioned even-year mojo. Hey, this is the playoffs. You've got to leave a little room for magic.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Massive tip of the cap to Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com for meticulously breaking down the tiebreaker rules.
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