Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars are each still searching for their first win of the season heading into this AFC South matchup Sunday.

While the Jaguars beginning the 2014 NFL season 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) is not surprising, Indy’s winless start already has bettors who took the over on its win total of 9.5 concerned about the team’s prospects the rest of the way.

Starting the season 0-2 has been a death knell for a team’s playoff hopes over the past seven seasons with only four of 59 teams making the playoffs after losing their first two games.

Point spread: The Colts opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 45.5 in midweek wagering, per sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 21.6-15.8 Colts

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts played two playoff teams from a year ago in their first two games, including the defending AFC champion Denver Broncos and reigning NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles. In other words, their strength of schedule has been one of the toughest in the NFL early on.

However, that all changes in Week 3 when Indianapolis visits a Jaguars team that has lost the last three meetings both SU and ATS. None of the last three games between the teams have been close, with the Colts winning by an average of nearly 24 points.

Last year at Jacksonville, the Colts won 37-3 as nine-point favorites, and they are certainly capable of a similar result here.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, they had to wait until Week 3 to play their home opener after playing two NFC East opponents on the road in their first two games, failing to cover the spread in big losses both times.

The good news is Jacksonville is finally at home and should be motivated to turn things around there. The Jaguars also have a familiar opponent in Indianapolis and know exactly how it feels to blow a lead against the Philadelphia Eagles like the Colts did on Monday Night Football. The difference being Indy did it at home, which must mess with the minds of the players, who will also be playing on a short week.

Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley just needs to convince them that both teams are in the same spot at 0-2, and one of them is guaranteed to emerge with its first victory after this game.

Smart Pick

From a mental perspective, the Jaguars are at a much bigger disadvantage, as they not only blew a 17-0 lead in a 34-17 loss at Philadelphia in the season opener but also failed to cash in on Robert Griffin III leaving last week for the Washington Redskins with a serious ankle injury in a 41-10 blowout.

Neither of those games were close, and at least Indianapolis was competitive in both of its losses at the end. The Colts also have some favorable trends on their side, as they are 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings at Jacksonville and 6-1 SU and ATS in their past seven as road favorites.

Those trends should continue in Indy’s favor with another easy win against the Jags. The trends also point under the total.

Trends

• The Colts are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six road games vs. the AFC South.
• The Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.
• The under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
• The under is 7-2 in Indy’s last nine road games vs. AFC South.
• The under is 8-3 in Jacksonville’s last 11 games as home underdogs.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.