Breaking Down Eric Decker's Impact on the New York Jets Offense
"Momentum" has been pegged as the scapegoat for the New York Jets' monumental collapse against the Green Bay Packers last week, but there is another tangible factor from Sunday's game that can explain the tale of two halves: the presence of Eric Decker.
One player, especially a non-quarterback, does not decide the course of a game on his own—but the Jets were a completely different offense with and without Decker in the lineup.
Even after leaving the game in the third quarter with a hamstring injury, Decker still wound up leading the team in receiving—and could have had much more had Geno Smith been a touch more accurate on a few passes.
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Within the first quarter of the game, it became glaringly obvious that Mark Schlereth's assessment of the former Denver Bronco on ESPN Radio last week may have been a tad off-base.
Here Decker puts on a gorgeous triple-stutter step release to warrant putting cornerback Sam Shields on the injury report with a pair of broken ankles.
What makes this move so spectacular is that Decker makes it impossible for Shields to tell what type of route he is running throughout the move. Because he is upright and not favoring any direction, Shields can only guess where Decker will wind up.
Shields is completely off-balance, making it impossible for him to turn and run with Decker's eventual nine route (otherwise known as a "go" route).
Decker eventually winds up with a few yards of separation for Smith to throw a perfect pass into the window between Shields and the oncoming safety. 14-0.
The Jets did not sign Decker to a $36 million contract just because he can make plays on his own. His presence alone makes it easier on all 10 other players on offense because of the extra attention he draws, as evidenced by this six-yard Chris Ivory run.
Decker is lined up split to the right. There are two important details from how the Packers are aligned—the amount of cushion Decker is given and how many players are in the box for run support. Anything considered fewer than eight men is generally considered to be a run-favorable situation.
Tramon Williams plays "off" coverage against Decker, while the Packers only place seven players in the box to help top the run. The Jets not only have a numbers advantage, but Williams is not in an ideal position to set the edge because of how far away he is from the line of scrimmage.
Decker is forcing the Packers to defend his big-play ability by rotating their defense in a way that leaves them vulnerable to an outside run. Because of this, Ivory is able to bounce the run outside for a six-yard gain.
These types of plays don't show up on SportsCenter highlights, but these runs stretch a defense and dictate how many personnel it is able to get away with in run support. These six yards gashed eventually force the defense to place an extra safety in run support—in large part because of Eric Decker's presence.
Decker's effect on the game was just as obvious when he left the game with a hamstring injury in the second half. The Jets only managed to score three points since their first-half three-touchdown explosion. The correlation between the Jets' scoring drought and Decker's absence is no coincidence.
An absent Decker opened up the defensive playbook for Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers. Without a true weapon on the outside to be a constant threat to make downfield plays, Capers was able to be much more aggressive in his approach without leaving himself vulnerable to giving up a big play.
This unconverted 3rd-and-long perfectly exemplified what went wrong with the Jets offense in the post-Decker phase of the game.
On this obvious passing situation, Capers dials up a blitz that leaves several Jets receivers in one-on-one matchups. The Packers are betting on their blitzers to get to Smith before any of the Jets receivers get open—a bet Capers may well have put his mortgage on.
Within seconds, about one-third of the Packers defense is in Smith's grill, forcing him to get rid of the ball quickly.
In desperation, Smith fires a pass to a covered Greg Salas, who is predictably unable to make the catch. Based on how far off the pass was from Salas, Smith was more concerned about getting a pass off that was not intercepted than converting the first down.
This was hardly the only time Geno could not find anyone open in time without Decker in the huddle.
Here, only one player, Jace Amaro, is open beyond the first-down marker.
The Packers are able to sit on the shorter Jets routes, as none of the other receivers has proved to be capable of getting open downfield. The only option Smith has here is to scramble and pick up whatever yards he can to avoid a disastrous play.
There are two sides to the immense impact Decker has on the Jets offense. For one, it is obvious that Decker is a high-caliber receiver who is worth every penny the Jets gave him.
At the same time, the Jets are far too dependent on Decker to be the only respected deep threat on the roster. When he is absent from the lineup, every aspect of the Jets offense—including the running game—is exponentially easier to defend.
ESPN New York's Mike Mazzeo brings up some glaring stats from ESPN Stats & Information that tell a cold tale of how much of a difference Decker's presence can make.
"According to ESPN Stats & Information, on Smith’s first three drives he went 8-for-10 for 89 yards and a touchdown. But on his final nine drives, Smith went 8-for-22 for 87 yards and a pick.
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Based on Sunday's results, the Jets had better pray Decker is able to play on Monday night against the Chicago Bears. According to Dom Consentino of NJ.com, Rex Ryan is hopeful that he will be ready to play.
Even if Decker is not operating at 100 percent, just having his name on the field could wind up making a huge difference in the Jets offense. After all, the Bears won't know exactly how operational Decker will be and will assume that he is playing at full capacity until proven otherwise and will alter their defense accordingly.
It is hardly a secret that the Jets' receiving corps is still a work in progress. New York will have to do what it can with the group it has for this season, but adding another player who prevents the Jets from being overly dependent on Decker could take this offense to the next level.
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