Chris Davis' 25-Game Suspension Could Impact O's More Than You'd Think

Literally and figuratively, the Baltimore Orioles have lost a big piece for their upcoming trip to October.

The word came down late Friday morning: Chris Davis, the Hulk-sized first baseman who led Major League Baseball with 53 home runs in 2013, has been suspended for 25 games for testing positive for an amphetamine. He will miss Baltimore's final 17 regular-season games and, potentially, its first eight postseason games.

In a statement, Davis apologized and explained it was his use of Adderall that triggered the positive test.

"I had permission to use it in the past, but do not have a therapeutic-use exemption (TUE) this year," he said. "I accept my punishment and will begin serving my suspension immediately."

This being a story involving a star ballplayer and a performance-enhancing substance, behind Door No. 1 is the moral angle. With the reality that Davis had a TUE for Adderall in one hand and his comment to ESPN The Magazine last year about how it was "extremely frustrating that people would just assume I was on something because I'm having success" in the other, it's a complex situation.

But we'll leave that to someone else. What's of interest to us is Door No. 2: With Davis out of commission, exactly how hard might the Orioles be hit by his suspension?

It doesn't look so bad on the surface. With a 10-game lead in the AL East at the start of play Friday, a trip to the postseason is well in hand for the Orioles. And as ESPN Stats & Information was (perhaps too) quick to note, the Orioles have done fine when they haven't had Davis in the lineup anyway:

A performance like that matches up against Davis' own performance pretty well. After slashing an impressive .286/.370/.634 in 2013, he only slashed .196/.300/.404 this year. According to FanGraphs, his WAR dropped from 6.8 to 0.4.

By that measure, the Orioles are basically losing a replacement-level player. And with fellow first baseman Steve Pearce having a breakout season, the loss of Davis might come off as even less of a big deal.

But don't be so sure about that. If you consider how this Orioles offense operates and how Davis fit into it, his suspension looks like a big deal after all.

At the absolute least, one thing the Orioles will be missing without Davis is balance.

Take a quick look at what the Orioles have on offense, and what you'll notice is that Buck Showalter is forced to trot out lineups thick with right-handed hitters. Big boppers Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz both swing righty, as do J.J. Hardy, Jonathan Schoop and Caleb Joseph.

With Davis in the mix, Showalter had a threatening left-handed bat he could use to break up the righties. And for all that can be said about his inconsistency, Davis was at least a little more consistent against right-handed pitching.

Split	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS
vs. RHP	360	.199	.318	.399	.716
vs. LHP	165	.188	.261	.416	.677

With Davis gone and the switch-hitting Matt Wieters on the shelf with Tommy John surgery, Showalter is down to really just one good lefty swinger: Nick Markakis.

This won't cost the Orioles the AL East. It could, however, make life difficult if/when they come across a right-handed ace like Felix Hernandez, Max Scherzer, James Shields, Jered Weaver, Sonny Gray or Jeff Samardzija in October.

And there's more. It's not just lineup balance that the Orioles are losing with Davis' suspension.

There's one thing the Orioles do better than anyone, and that's hit home runs. They lead baseball with 192 of them, outpacing the next non-Coors Field team by almost 30 dingers.

Greg Fiume/Getty Images

This, also, is something Davis could still do. He wasn't on his way to another 50-homer season, but his 26 dingers were good for second on the team behind Cruz's 39. Without that home run power, the Orioles might not be able to simply slug their way through October like we've seen other teams do.

But power's only the primary ingredient of this Orioles offense. Another more subtle—and arguably equally important—ingredient is getting hits when hits are needed most.

Just like in 2012, Baltimore's offense is owning high-leverage situations. According to FanGraphs, the Orioles lead baseball in average, OPS, wOBA, wRC+ and, well, pretty much everything in high-leverage situations.

Sure, we can argue about clutch hitting as a repeatable skill from year to year. But a team being really good at it within the confines of a single season? It does take more than blind luck for that to happen. A lot of the time, it happens because good hitters are at their best when their best is needed.

That's another thing about Davis: On a team full of good clutch hitters, he was the best.

Name	PA	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chris Davis	49	6	22	.351	.490	.865	1.355
Manny Machado	36	2	5	.375	.400	.594	.994
Nelson Cruz	67	4	26	.304	.403	.571	.974
Nick Markakis	54	1	13	.354	.407	.458	.866
Steve Pearce	39	1	8	.324	.410	.441	.851
Adam Jones	60	1	14	.315	.333	.463	.796

Given how much clutch hits tend to be needed in October, the thought of the Orioles proceeding without the guy atop that table isn't a happy thought.

In light of this and the power Davis had to offer, it's therefore not just balance the Orioles offense will be missing for a while. It will also essentially be missing a part of its identity as an offense.

That's a lot for a mere replacement-level player to take with him. Taken together with the loss of Manny Machado for the season, Hardy's suddenly questionable health and the unspectacular second-half performances of Cruz and Jones, the Orioles now find themselves steaming ahead to October with a weaker offense than one they might have had.

If there's a bright side, it's that the Orioles will only have to last as long as eight games in the postseason before they can get Davis back. With playoff hopefuls like the Oakland A's, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners all playing up-and-down baseball these days, the prospect of the Orioles lasting that long is hardly far-fetched.

But without the slugger known as "Crush," it's not going to be easy either.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

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