10 Predictions for the New England Patriots 2014 Season
If you had told anyone before the 2014 offseason began that the New England Patriots would make the biggest free-agent signing in the NFL and that they would make one of the biggest trades of the offseason, you might have received more than your fair share of death stares.
Indeed, it's been an unpredictable offseason for the Patriots. There have been a lot of changes for the Patriots over the past decade-plus, but one thing has stayed the same: They are consistently one of the league's elite teams, regularly earning double-digit win totals and first-round byes.
Will the Patriots have the same success this year?
Season predictions are a fun exercise in futility. Some will be accurate; others will be hysterically wrong. Who cares? We'll give some predictions, anyway.
Here we go.
Darrelle Revis Will Intercept 5 or More Passes
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NFL players are recovering from ACL tears more quickly than ever before. That being said, a return to the football field does not necessarily mean a full recovery. It can often take even longer for the knee to return back to full strength.
Cornerback Darrelle Revis tore his ACL in September 2012 and has had plenty of time to get back to full health. He did not appear to have any problem moving around during training camp, and he said his knee is no longer a concern.
The last time he had more than five interceptions was in 2009, when he had six. Of course, this prediction assumes that quarterbacks will throw at him often enough to make that happen. If Revis is playing like his old self, that may not be a safe assumption.
The Patriots Will Rank in the Top 5 in Defensive Passer Rating
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Passing yards are to NFL stats as potato chips are to calories: empty. With the rules that favor passing and protect quarterbacks and receivers, it’s exceedingly difficult to prevent an offense from moving the ball through the air.
A much better measure of pass defense is efficiency, and the best measure of efficiency is defensive passer rating. In 2013, the Patriots allowed opposing quarterbacks to compile an 81 passer rating against them, the ninth-lowest allowed by any defense. With the improvements the Patriots made in the secondary, it's hard to imagine they won’t improve on that performance.
Indeed, Patriots fans may have to find something else to complain about besides poor play in the secondary this year.
Rob Gronkowski Will Play 16 Games
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Had to go out on a limb at some point, right?
Well, the Patriots All-Pro tight end has not played a full 16-game season since 2011, missing time in each of the past two seasons due to forearm/back/ACL injuries and surgeries.
There has been a bit of a disconnect as to whether Gronkowski will play Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins; Gronkowski says he will play, but Bill Belichick says he will make the decision based on practice. Friday, NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reported that Gronkowski will indeed play.
Ideally, Gronkowski would play every snap of every game. The Patriots may be wise, however, to manage his snaps and try to keep him as healthy as possible over the course of the season. If they do that, Gronkowski could see the first fully healthy season of his career since he broke the record for receiving touchdowns by a tight end in a single season in 2011 with 17.
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Contract Extension for Devin McCourty
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The Patriots catch a lot of grief for coldly parting ways with a player at times, but they don't get enough credit for taking care of their own at other times. Recently, the Patriots have begun giving their players contract extensions during the season.
In December 2011, linebacker Jerod Mayo received a five-year, $48.5 million contract extension. In October 2013, defensive end Rob Ninkovich signed a three-year, $15 million extension.
This year, the contract extension could go to safety Devin McCourty. The 2014 Ron Burton Award winner has developed into one of the NFL's premier safeties and could be in line for a big contract and a bidding war if he hits the open market. McCourty has become a leader for the defense and is a captain once again in 2014 after earning the role on an interim basis during the 2013 season.
McCourty is truly a "glue guy" in the secondary and for the defense as a whole. He helps get his teammates lined up and makes calls for the secondary. His value to the defense as a sideline-to-sideline single-high safety will be on display this season. The Patriots cannot afford to let him hit the open market.
Tom Brady Will Throw at Least 35 Touchdown Passes
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In 2013, Tom Brady threw 25 touchdowns. That was the fewest in a single season by him since 2006. His 6.9 yards per pass attempt was his lowest average since 2006, and his 60.5 completion percentage was his lowest since 2005.
Some have attributed the drop-off to the expected decline that comes with age, but the 37-year-old could experience a return to dominance this season. He will have his full complement of pass-catching threats. Last year's rookies are this year's key contributors, with Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins in line for big roles.
Of course, Brady will also have a healthy Rob Gronkowski. The All-Pro tight end will make his presence felt all over the field, but mostly in the red zone, where the Patriots scored on 68.6 percent of possessions with Gronkowski in the lineup against 41.4 percent without him.
Duron Harmon Will Be the Full-Time Starting SS by the End of the Season
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The Patriots have majored in specialization on defense in recent years, with specific personnel groupings to stop the pass and the run, respectively. This preseason, safeties Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon have split the time on defense: Chung has played primarily in the base defense and played running downs, while Harmon has played in the nickel defense and on passing downs.
The decision has some merit. Harmon admitted to some problems with tackling last season, and focused on improving that this offseason. Chung is not afraid to come into the box and make a hit in the running game but does not match Harmon's skill set of route recognition, quick reaction time and instincts when defending the pass as a deep safety.
If Harmon can show improvement as a tackler, he could emerge as the full-time safety by the end of the 2014 season.
No Wide Receiver Will Earn over 100 Receptions
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For three straight years, the Patriots have had at least one receiver with over 100 receptions. From 2011-2012, it was Wes Welker. In 2013, it was Julian Edelman.
At times, it seemed like Edelman was the only receiver Brady was looking at. That's because, at times, he was the only healthy receiver left on the field, as Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Dobson and Danny Amendola all suffered injuries. With those three back to full health this season, Tom Brady will have plenty of other options in the passing game and could spread the ball around a bit more than last year.
As a slot receiver, Edelman will always be a favorite target of Brady, but he could come back to the pack a little bit with the healthy return of so many of his teammates.
The Patriots Will Average 30 or More Points Per Game on Offense
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It’s hard to believe, but even with the Patriots' early-season struggles and late-season injuries on offense in 2013, they still ranked third in points per game on offense with an average of 27.8. It was the first time since 2009 that the Patriots averaged fewer than 30 points per game.
The Patriots offense can be difficult for pass-catchers because of the need for good chemistry between the quarterback and receivers as well as a deep understanding of defenses and coverages. Receivers Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins and Danny Amendola all enter their second season with the team, and their experience could lead to improvements from all three.
Last year, the only receiver who had any prior experience in the Patriots offense was Julian Edelman. This year, the only receiver who doesn’t have any prior experience in the offense is Brandon LaFell.
And it may be a pipe dream at this point, but if the Patriots can get anywhere close to a full 16 games from tight end Rob Gronkowski, their offense could once again prove to be one of the most prolific in the NFL—not that it wasn’t last year.
2 Defenders Will Get 10 or More Sacks
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The Patriots haven't had two defenders with 10 sacks or more since 2011, when defensive ends Mark Anderson and Andre Carter each crossed into double digits. Before that, the last duo to accomplish the feat was Andre Tippett and Garin Veris in 1985.
Chandler Jones logged a team-leading 11.5 sacks in 2013, while Rob Ninkovich ranked second on the team with eight sacks. Jones seems like the most likely candidate to also hit double digits. If the Patriots utilize more 3-4 looks this year, though, Dont'a Hightower could make a push with some pressure of his own. His versatility makes him an option at both inside and outside linebacker.
Ideally, Jones and Ninkovich wouldn't be forced to go wire-to-wire with a full workload as often as they were in 2013, but the Patriots did not make any significant additions at their positions this offseason. Unless rookie Zach Moore and sophomore Michael Buchanan can emerge and grow into a role as an outside linebacker and/or sub-package pass-rush specialist, veterans Jones and Ninkovich could be workhorses once again.
Final Record: 12-4
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The Patriots have been good for at least 12 wins in each of the past four seasons, and with an improved roster in 2014, they should at least match their win total from last season.
The Patriots do face a tough schedule that features all six AFC playoff teams and an NFC playoff team, so it will not be an easy road. That being said, there's a reason that Brady and Belichick are among the best at their positions in NFL history, and they are the trump cards that make the Patriots a force yet again.
Barring a catastrophe, the Patriots should win at least a dozen games.
Unless otherwise noted, quotes obtained first-hand.
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