How the AL East Could Look Drastically Different Next Season
2014 has been an incredibly turbulent year for teams in the AL East.
The standings look drastically different than they did a year ago, with the 2013 World Series champion Boston Red Sox dwelling in the division’s basement and the Baltimore Orioles poised to win the AL East crown for the first time since 1997.
Star players like Jon Lester, David Price, Robinson Cano and the immortal Mariano Rivera are gone, while new talents like Masahiro Tanaka, Yoenis Cespedes, Brian McCann, Nelson Cruz and Drew Smyly now call the division home. And an influx of young players like Dellin Betances, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Jake Odorizzi and others should make the AL East entertaining for years to come.
Yet as much change as the past 12 months have brought for this division, the next 12 figure to bring even more upheaval. The Red Sox and Rays are both in the midst of rebuilding their teams. The Yankees have a lot of money coming off the books this offseason and a lot of holes to fill. And the Jays and Orioles face some tough decisions when it comes to retaining upcoming free agents of their own.
It is against this backdrop that teams will have access to an intriguing mix of free agents this offseason. With three free-agent aces in Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields on the market, plus a talented crop of hitters including Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, Melky Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, Michael Cuddyer and Pablo Sandoval, there could be plenty of personnel changes ahead.
In short, while the divisions is pretty much locked up for 2014, it may very well be a wide-open race in 2015 depending on each organization’s offseason moves. With that in mind, let’s take a look at what could change for each team between now and April 1, 2015, and how such changes will impact the AL East landscape.
Baltimore Orioles
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The Orioles somewhat surprisingly find themselves atop the AL East with an 81-57 record, a comfortable 9.5 games ahead of the second place Yankees. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 99.7 percent chance to make the playoffs this year, and Baltimore is seventh in the majors in runs scored and 12th in the league in ERA as a team.
Key Potential Free Agents
The O’s have done a nice job of acquiring talented hitters in recent years, but they stand to lose some punch. Both J.J. Hardy and Nelson Cruz are scheduled to become free agents when the year is over, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, potentially depriving Baltimore of two everyday players.
According to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun, Cruz and the Orioles have already engaged in talks to keep him in black and orange, but there’s been “nothing serious” between the two sides since the All-Star Break.
In addition to Hardy and Cruz, the O’s could lose Andrew Miller and Delmon Young among meaningful contributors, and Nick Markakis very well may see his $17.5 million team option for 2015 declined.
What Could Change Next Year
While Baltimore can reasonably expect to get more out of Matt Wieters, Manny Machado and Chris Davis in 2015 than they did in 2014, losing Cruz, Hardy and Markakis would be tough to stomach. One would assume the O’s will make a play to retain at least one of those players to avoid turning their biggest strength into a weakness.
With that in mind, Baltimore could potentially be a landing spot for some mid-tier outfield and middle infield free agents, as the organization doesn’t have any marquee positional prospects who look ready to make an immediate impact next year.
What Should Stay the Same
Superstar Adam Jones is under contract through 2018 and should continue to lead an offense stocked with familiar names in Davis, Machado, Wieters and Jonathan Schoop.
Baltimore’s 2015 rotation should remain largely intact. Chris Tillman, Bud Norris, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman and Ubaldo Jimenez are all under contract at least through next season, and top prospect Dylan Bundy could be ready to make an impact at some point as well. Likewise, Miller is the only prominent name who should be subtracted from the bullpen.
Boston Red Sox
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The Red Sox have gone from worst to first to worst again, sitting in the basement of the AL East with a 61-78 record. Injuries to veterans and a lack of performance from young major leaguers have combined to sink the Sox, who rank just 25th in the majors in runs scored and 22nd in team ERA. The Sox all but waved the white flag at the trade deadline, and their current playoff odds sit at zero percent, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Key Potential Free Agents
The Red Sox already offloaded many of their prospective 2015 free-agent players, trading away Jon Lester, Andrew Miller, Jonny Gomes and Stephen Drew at or near the deadline.
Among those players who remain in a Red Sox uniform, Koji Uehara is the biggest name, with David Ross, Burke Badenhop and Ryan Dempster slated to hit free-agency as well. The Red Sox could also decline the option on Craig Breslow, who’s had a so-so-year in relief.
Red Sox GM Ben Cherington hinted on Wednesday that the team has interest in re-signing Uehara for 2015, according to NESN.com’s Ricky Doyle, despite the closer’s struggles as of late.
What Could Change Next Year
A whole lot. The Red Sox have Yoenis Cespedes, Rusney Castillo, Mookie Betts, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino and Jackie Bradley Jr. all fighting for three starting spots and four or five spots on the roster. It’s quite likely that one or more of these players will be moved this offseason.
The Sox also have more quantity than quality in the rotation. Clay Buchholz, Rubby De La Rosa and Joe Kelly figure to see starts next year. But with Brandon Workman, Anthony Ranaudo and Allen Webster failing to impress, Boston could certainly stand to add some talent to its collection of starting pitchers.
In fact, Cherington has already come out and said the team will look to address its rotation this off-season, per the Boston Herald’s Scott Lauber.
It’s possible, albeit unlikely, that the Red Sox could look to reunite with Lester, and they could be players for Shields as well. The Sox may also want to take a look at upgrading third base, and with options like Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Chase Headley and Jed Lowrie all available, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they’ll have ample opportunity to do so.
What Should Stay the Same
Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Cespedes and Mike Napoli figure to comprise a formidable middle of the order for Boston again in 2015, with Castillo, Xander Bogaerts and Christian Vazquez all seeing plenty of time as well. It’s also quite possible we could see more of Craig, Nava, Betts, Brock Holt and Will Middlebrooks, though their status is less certain.
You can expect several members of the Sox’s plethora of young, right-handed pitchers to make appearances either in the rotation or in the bullpen, though it’s possible that one or two will be traded. And the bullpen should see some holdovers in Tazawa, Edward Mujica, Tommy Layne and perhaps Breslow.
That being said, expect some sweeping changes across the board when it comes to the rotation and Boston’s glut of outfielders. This is a team with money and prospects to spend, and they could be quite active in the trade market, too.
New York Yankees
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At just 71-66, the Yankees have disappointed this season after undergoing a major offseason retool. Despite adding Masahiro Tanaka, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury, among others this winter and adding Chase Headley, Brandon McCarthy, Stephen Drew and Martin Prado in-season, the Yankees have just a 3.5 percent chance at the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus. They rank 21st in the majors in runs scored and 19th in team ERA.
Key Potential Free Agents
The Yankees stand to face losses to their lineup, rotation and bullpen to free agency this offseason. Headley, Drew and Ichiro Suzuki are the biggest names leaving on the position player side, while McCarthy, Chris Capuano and Hiroki Kuroda could depart from the rotation, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Likewise, the Yankees could lose their closer, David Robertson.
And, as you might have heard once or twice, Derek Jeter is slated to retire at season’s end, leaving a hole at shortstop in New York for the first time in nearly two decades.
What Could Change Next Year
Despite the massive spending spree the Yankees embarked on in the 2014 offseason, they could be big spenders once again in 2015. With CC Sabathia’s future effectiveness in question and a rotation that needs a lot of holes plugged, one of the big three free-agent pitchers could very well be in play here, as could one or two secondary options.
The Yankees could also be active in a free-agent middle infield market that includes the likes of Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera and Drew. New York could explore a trade for a shortstop, too, but expect to see some new faces in the infield nonetheless.
It’s also quite possible that Dellin Betances could take over for Robertson at the end of games, though it would make sense for New York to try and retain Robertson’s services.
There’s also the chance that Alex Rodriguez will return next year, but that’s a topic best left for another day.
What Should Stay the Same
Ellsbury, McCann, Beltran and Brett Gardner are the new faces of the Yankees’ offense, and all should be in place next season along with Mark Teixeira. Sabathia should return to the rotation along with Michael Pineda, and much of the bullpen should remain intact.
And on Thursday, CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman reported that the Yankees plan on retaining the services of GM Brian Cashman for an 18th season, despite their disappointing 2014 campaign.
Still, this figures to be one of the most fluid rosters in the game between now and April 1, 2015.
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Tampa Bay Rays
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When the season began, many expected the Rays and Red Sox to battle it out for the AL East crown. Instead, the Rays are challenging Boston for the division’s worst record, sitting at 67-73. Injuries have played a major role in Tampa’s season, but that doesn’t improve the zero percent chance they have to make the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus. The Rays rank 22nd in the league in runs scored but are eighth in the league in team ERA.
Key Potential Free Agents
None.
Seriously: There isn’t a single free agent-to-be worthy of mentioning on this roster. All of the Rays’ current offensive starters and notable bullpen arms are under contract through at least 2015, and the members of their starting rotation are under team control for ever longer.
This is symptomatic of how the Rays operate as of late, acquiring cost-controlled players and flipping expensive veterans to compensate for what’s been a largely barren farm system.
What Could Change Next Year
Like the Red Sox, Tampa Bay made its biggest splash at the trade deadline rather than waiting until the offseason. Dealing David Price to the Tigers was a tough but necessary call, even if the return the Rays received has gotten mixed reviews.
However, if the Rays are looking to make another serious upgrade to their rotation or their bullpen this offseason, they could consider dealing Ben Zobrist. He’s under team control for a very affordable $7.5 million in 2015, but that’s the final year of his contract, and he’ll likely do well in free agency.
The Rays could decide to keep Zobrist and reevalute at the trade deadline next year, or they could extend him beyond 2015. But flipping Zobrist, acquiring younger talent and letting Nick Franklin play every day would fit the Rays’ M.O.
What Should Stay the Same
With the Price deal out of the way, the Rays figure to be the most stable of the five AL East teams this offseason. They have starters in place at each position for 2015, thanks to the Yunel Escobar extension, and a five-man rotation already set for the next several years. Their bench is likely set as well, with Jose Molina, Sean Rodriguez, Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer and David DeJesus all under contract.
If the Rays stay healthy and some of their young hitters start hitting, it’s not hard to imagine them competing once more in 2015.
Toronto Blue Jays
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The Jays held the division lead for a good portion of the 2014 season, but injuries and ineffective pitching have continued to plague this franchise. Now sitting at just 71-67, the Blue Jays are 10 games out of first place in the AL East, and Baseball Prospectus gives them just a 2.2 percent chance of making the postseason. The Jays rank sixth in the majors in runs scored, but just 24th in team ERA.
Key Potential Free Agents
The Jays could be facing holes in the outfield, the rotation and the bullpen once free agency rears its head this offseason. Both Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus are free agents, and both figure to land starting spots somewhere, if not in Toronto. Closer Casey Janssen is slated to be a free agent, and starter JA Happ has a $6.7 million option for 2015 that may not be picked up.
The Jays have some fairly intriguing pitchers in the upper minors, which could mitigate their need to pursue free-agent pitching this offseason. But even factoring in promising young outfielder Dalton Pompey, the Jays will need significant help in the outfield if both Cabrera and Rasmus depart.
Given how much salary the Jays took on in the Jose Reyes/R.A. Dickey deal, it’s difficult to see them being major players in free agency, but they should be able to add a significant player or two nonetheless.
What Could Change Next Year
Pompey and Anthony Gose could see significant time in the outfield next year, though the latter has done nothing to prove he should play every day in the majors. As such, Kevin Pillar and John Mayberry Jr. could factor in to the outfield situation, too.
Toronto’s back-end starters figure to face plenty of pressure, as Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez are both in the MLB bullpen now but could be starters long-term. But the bullpen could use serious help as well, so the Jays may very well leave one starter, likely Sanchez, in a relieving capacity.
And Toronto has also failed to cobble together acceptable production at second base once again in 2014, and they may finally decide to address that hole this offseason. The Jays can pick from a deep group of free-agent middle infielders that includes Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, J.J. Hardy, Stephen Drew, Emilio Bonifacio and Kelly Johnson among others, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.
What Should Stay the Same
Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind will still serve as the nucleus of a potentially strong offense, and the Jays will once again likely be left to play the guessing game with Brett Lawrie. Dioner Navarro should see the bulk of starts behind the plate once again.
R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison all seem firmly entrenched in the rotation, though it’s possible someone other than Stroman could cede their starts to Norris or Sanchez before the 2015 season’s end. Brandon Morrow could also factor into the rotation next year, as he recently told the Toronto Sun’s Ken Fidlin that he still sees himself as a starting pitcher.
And in the bullpen, while Janssen could be gone, Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, Aaron Loup and Todd Redmond figure to return. This group as a whole, however, could certainly use some support. In short, a lot of ancillary pieces could change this offseason, but the core of this Blue Jays team is intact.
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