UFC 100: Breaking Down the Three Main Fights

TIM VREELAND by Correspondent Written on July 10, 2009
CHICAGO- OCTOBER 25:  Thiago Alves (R) fights Josh Koscheck in a Welterweight bout  at UFC's Ultimate Fight Night at Allstate Arena on October 25, 2008 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images) (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)

UFC 100 is an epic milestone for MMA and the Ultimate fighting Championship headlined by two title defenses and some compelling under card bouts, lets hope it delivers.

Also two candidates will be inducted into the hall of fame, if Dana Whites Twitter blog is to be believed it will be former Light Heavy Weight Champion Chuck "the Iceman" Liddell and one of founders of Tapout, Mask who passed away earlier this year.

They will join the ranks of Dan Severn, Mark Coleman, Randy Couture, Royce Gracie and, Ken Shamrock. On a side note, the reason why Matt Hughes hasn't been added to this list is an enigma.

 

Breaking Down the Fights

Brock Lesnar - 3-1-0- vs Frank Mir -12-3-0 at Heavyweight - This bout is set to finally unify the Heavyweight titles. Mir has the interim and Lesnar the linear belt he won from Randy Couture. This is a rematch, and in their first fight, Mir was the victor via submission, he is the only fighter to defeat Lesnar to date.

Can Mir repeat history or will Lesnar avenge his sole loss?

What this fight really comes down to is how much has Lesnar improved his overall MMA game especially when it comes to submissions and, whether or not Mir's stand-up has improved enough to deal with Lesnar's heavy hands more effectively than their first fight.

Lesnar's keys to victory

Lesnar is powerful and athletic but despite his wrestling pedigree he should look to keep this fight standing. Mir got clocked by a massive right hand from Lesnar and nearly finished the first time around.

So Lesnar should utilize his wrestling ability to get back to his feet and avoid the submissions. Keep pressure on Mir with his longer reach and ever improving boxing skills. He has the strength,weight and speed advantage. Also, Lesnar has been working his submission defense.

Should Lesnar windup on the ground in a dominant position he may go for the ground and pound. But it would be more prudent to take it back to standing and avoid Mir's strength in submissions. Lesnar has explosive striking and incredible agility for a man of his size, this is best wielded on his feet in this fight.

Timing out quick counter shots to Mir's leg kicks with his superior reach could literally end the fight with one punch.

Most important for Lesnar is patience, not getting overzealous. Despite his meteoric rise Lesnar is still inexperienced with just three years in the sport and four fights overall. A solid win over Mir could silence some critics, but the real test lies in defending that title.

Mir's keys to victory 

Mir's BJJ skills are finely honed and he was making guys tap before Lesnar ever knew the sport existed. So while looking for the ground battle and the submission should be Mir's game plan getting there might not be so easy. Lesnar won't be very eager to pursue Mir to the ground carelessly and repeat history.

However Mir showed improved stand-up in his battle with Nogueira and may be willing to trade more this time around also he might not have a choice at the onset of the bout.

Two weapons in his standing arsenal could prove to be effective against Lesnar; leg kicks and uppercuts. Soften him up and then take it to the ground forcing Lesnar to deal with Mir's strength.

No one has really tested Lesnar standing, but utilizing his size against him could work; for example, the key to blocking the uppercut is evasion or putting those arms together and creating a wall. Lesnar may not be able to do this because of sheer size, very large and wide guys can't put their elbows together because of mass of muscle.

Leg kicks to take away mobility slowing Lesnar down and keep him guessing. This could also take away some of his speed and ability to plant on his lead leg to throw the massive right hand. But Mir needs to move to the right avoiding Lesnar's big right hand.

Mir should use a stick and move approach and really mix it up, confusing Lesnar and then take it to the ground. Here again, Lesnar's size makes him more vulnerable to submissions because all that muscle isn't as flexible.

Prediction - The longer this one goes the more it favors Frank Mir, I say Mir by submission in the second or third round.

 

George St. Pierre - 18-2-0- vs Thiago Alves - 22-4-0 at 170- This bout is for the Welterweight title and St. Pierre's third title defense. Many consider Alves to be kryptonite to the welterweight superman.

What this fight boils down to is GSP having a reach advantage with one of the most well rounded games in the business and, Alves being incredibly strong combined with devastating striking.

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written on July 10, 2009 Preview/Prediction

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