UFC 100 Tips/Predictions

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UFC 100 Tips/Predictions

Welcome to another set of predictions for UFC 100, a card with no subtitle. Lines taken from bodog as always, and are presented in decimal form, which I'll explain, as always!

Odds are given as what your return would be for every €1.00/$1.00/£1.00 that you put down, so 1.53 means that for every 1.00 you bet, you get 0.53 in profit plus your original 1.00 back.


UNDERCARD


Matt 'The Real One' Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty
(155lbs/70kg)


Matt Grice
9-2-0

USA


+Strong wrestler
+Good top control

-Does not look comfortable striking
-Sub-par submission game








Shannon Gugerty
11-3-0

USA


+Jiu Jitsu brown belt
+Some Muay Thai background

-Poor wrestling







Analysis

Grice could be thought of as a lesser version of Mitsuhiro Ishida or Gray Maynard, being a wrestler with good top control and little ability to finish a fight, except probably without the awesome submission defense, which is pretty crucial.

Gugerty has an advantage on the feet or on the ground, so he Grice is going to need a good strategy here.


My Take

Gugerty by sub, round one. Grice is a wrestler and nothing else.



CB 'The Doberman' Dollaway vs. Tom 'The Filthy Mauler' Lawlor
(185lbs/84kg)



CB Dollaway
8-1-0

USA

+NCAA All-American wrestler
+Passable striking and grappling

-Still one dimensional










Tom Lawlor
5-1-0

USA

+Shoots for takedowns fast
+Works hard enough from top position
+Persistent with takedowns

-One-dimensional without submission or striking skills










Analysis

Lawlor is pretty much a wrestler, being a three-time National Wrestling Collegiate Association champion in college and an all state wrestler in high school. Bad matchup for him here, what with CB Dollaway being an All-American wrestler in college.

Neither have submission skills worth noting, but Dollaway has at least some striking, meaning he's better in the two areas where the fight will take place.

My Take

Dollaway by unanimous decision, by being better than Lawlor at his strength, wrestling, and by using better stand-up.




Dong Hyun 'Stun Gun' Kim vs. Jonathan 'The Road Warrior' Goulet
(170lbs/77kg)

Dong Hyun Kim
11-0-1-1


South Korea

+4th degree Judo black belt
+Extremely difficult to shake off in clinch
+Has a very good habit of taking the back

-Bad standup defense
-Weak cardio
-Very few successful submissions









TJ Grant
14-2-0

Canada

+Jiu Jitsu purple belt
+Has the Basics of Muay Thai
+Decent takedowns

-Bad takedown defense
-Guard not hard to pass
-Basic defense standing








Analysis

The last minute replacement for Jonathan Goulet, Grant may have a small advantage standing but suffers from a very average sprawl.
Kim took down Parisyan multiple times from the clinch and Parisyan is a Judo black belt. Kim will likely take Grant down and keep him there, but Grant may have a better chance of getting back up than Goulet would have had.

I don't see a submission win, nor a knockout for either fighter.

My Take

I'll take Kim via unanimous decision, since I don't think Grant will be able to keep himself from being taken down.



Jon 'Bones' Jones vs. Jake O'Brien
(205lbs/93kg)


Jon Jones
8-0-0


USA

+Junior College wrestling champion at Iowa
+Marvelous hip throws
+Good Thai Boxing
+Extreme reach advantage; stands at 6'4
+Confident enough to try rare techniques

-Bad cardio
-Inexperienced; may react badly to being hit









Jake O'Brien
11-2-0


USA

+Three time high school champion wrestler
+Good ground control
+Persistent takedowns

-Shots horribly telegraphed
-Too tentative when in an opponents guard
-No submission wins
-Below average striking







Analysis

Jon Jones is being watched carefully by hardcore fans that believe they have found a prodigy, a future champ, after he ragdolled Bonnar and almost KO'd him on several occasions.
The 21-year old has certainly warranted their praise, but it will be a better test for him to fight O'Brien, who is a skilled wrestler and will not likely get thrown with ease.

O'Brien is a three-time high school state wrestling champion, and has had a successful run at heavyweight, only to losing to Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez, and having a good win over Heath Herring.

If Jones stops the takedown, he should take this, and with Jones being a Junior College wrestling champ himself, that should be very doable.

My Take
I'm going to guess that Jones schools O'Brien in the standup, and that their wrestling cancels out, with Jones scoring a second Round TKO.

That's what I expect, but with Jones at 1.20 and O'Brien at 4.00, there is no real value on Jones, and there's always hope that O'Brien will take some benefits of experience to defeat Jones, such as cardio.


Jim Miller vs. Mac Danzig (155lbs/70kg)

 

Jim Miller
13-2-0


USA

 

+Very dangerous grappler
+Aggressive striking and good hand speed
+Extremely slick sweeps and submissions off back
+Aggressive from top position
+Great cardio

-Not much takedown defense
-Leaves himself open in stand-up defense







Mac Danzig
18-6-1

USA

 


+Well rounded; possesses good sprawl, good striking and good grappling.
+Very aggressive ground and pound

-Does not excel in any one area
-Not good off back

 

Analysis

Jim Miller is a ground specialist who has submitted a BJJ black belt in David Baron, and one of his biggest assets is that he fights at such a frenetic pace. Holes in his stand-up are made smaller by the fact that he charges for takedowns in the middle of his striking flurries, making it difficult to sprawl against.

Miller has only been beaten by Frank Edgar and Gray Maynard by decision, two great wrestlers with great sub-defense.

Danzig has a decent sprawl, but Mark Bocek took him down and was able to keep him there for a while. He will not want to repeat a performance like that against Miller.
My Take

Miller by unanimous decision, but since he's at 1.53, I would feel better backing Danzig at 2.55.

Mark 'The Hammer' Coleman vs. Stephan 'The American Psycho' Bonnar
(205lbs/93kg)

Mark Coleman
15-9-0


USA

+Came 7th in 1992 Olympics at the 100kg class; 2nd in FILA World Freestyle Wrestling Championship. Still one of the best wrestlers in MMA

-Zero cardio
-Years of competition and age have left him badly worn
-Ability to finish fights very suspect





Notable Wins:
Igor Vovchanchyn (2000)
Dan Severn (1997)



Stephan Bonnar
11-5-0


USA

+Excellent heart and chin
+Good Jiu Jitsu
+Former Golden Gloves boxer

-Not much wrestling or takedown defense










Analysis

Coleman is still one of the best wrestlers in MMA, but only for one round. Anymore than that, he simply is not able to continue, due to horrible cardio that will not likely improve at this stage of his career, certainly not now that we have to add weight cutting into the mix. It was amazing that Shogun took so long to TKO him, based on how horrible his movement was.

I expect this to be similar, but with Bonnar having the cardio that Shogun lacked in UFC 93. Coleman will likely score a takedown or two, fail to do anything with it, and Bonnar will use his BJJ to stand, and he will punish Coleman in the standup.

My Take

Bonnar by TKO, Round Three. Coleman has way too much mileage on him. Although even still, with Coleman at 3.85 and Bonnar at 1.27, it is sort of tempting to bet on Coleman.




MAIN CARD


Yoshiro Akiyama vs. Alan 'The Talent' Belcher
(185lbs/84kg)

Yoshiro Akiyama
12-1-0


Japan

+Very good judoka; gold medalist in the 2002 Asian Games
+Punches hard
+Slick enough with submissions

-Not light on his feet
-Does not have fast takedowns













Alan Belcher
14-5-0

USA

+Competent Jiu Jitsu
+Knows how to KO

-Rudimentary takedown defense
-Poor boxing defense













Analysis

Though Akiyama is a ground fighter, primarily, his inclination to strike and lack of explosive takedowns will probably mean that this stays a striking match. I give Akiyama an advantage in that department, as Belcher was being picked apart by Kang before Belcher got the guillotine.

Akiyama should have a decent advantage on the ground, but I wouldn't expect him to submit the BJJ purple belt, as Akiyama hasn't submitted a ranked opponent yet.

My Take

Akiyama by unanimous decision, both by outstriking the American and by outworking him on the ground. Like a lot of the favourites on the card, though, Akiyama offers little value at 1.34, but Belcher may be worth a small play at 3.30.



Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago
(170lbs/77kg)

Jon Fitch
18-3-0


USA


+As much heart as any MMA fighter
+Awesome chin
+Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Wonderful cardio

-Not that hard a hitter
-Not a great offensive wrestler







Notable Wins:
Diego Sanchez (2007)
Thiago Alves (2006)



Paulo Thiago
10-0-0


Brazil

+Great chin
+Power puncher
+Jiu Jitsu black belt

-Does not have good defensive head movement or footwork -Striking combinations basic
-Questionable takedowns






Notable Wins:
Josh Koscheck (2009)

Analysis

This could be a pretty closely contested affair. Thiago was unknown to every MMA fan in the northern hemisphere until he got the TKO over Josh Koscheck earlier this year, sending him into the welterweight rankings.

Fitch has gone 8-0 in UFC, though without defeating many highly ranked opponents, as neither Sanchez nor Alves were highly ranked at the time.

Thiago has a great chin, as Koscheck dropped a heavy bomb on him early, which did not stumble him. Fitch's chin however, survived a war from Georges St.Pierre, and will not likely get KO'd.

He's unlikely to get submitted too, being a Jiu Jitsu black belt—he's probably a better wrestler than Thiago anyway, so it probably wont be an issue.

Thiago does throw hard, but was losing decisively to Koscheck before he got a TKO which was not conclusive. Fitch is understandably favourite for all these reasons, and after what happened to Koscheck, he won't take his opponent lightly.

Thiago does not have good striking combinations, and really, only KO'd Koscheck because Koscheck leaned into the uppercut. Doubtful he'll outstrike Fitch.

My Take

Unless Thiago lands a Manhoef style haymaker, Fitch will dispose of him easily. Fitch by TKO, Round Two.

There is little value in Fitch at 1.20. Thiago might be worth small money at 4.00, but that would probably just be throwing money away, really.



Dan 'Hendo' Henderson vs. Michael 'The Count' Bisping
(185lbs/84kg)

Dan Henderson
24-7-0

USA

+Olympian; qualified for the US greco-roman wrestling team in '92 and '96
+Big punching power
+Great sub defense
+Rock hard chin

-Bad cardio
-Tendency to stick head down and brawl
-Sometimes inaggressive when opponent is on their back
-No submissions




Notable Wins:
Rich Franklin (2009)
Rousimar Palhares (2008)
Wanderlei Silva (2007)
Vitor Belfort (2006)
Kazuo Misaki (2006)
Murilo Bustamante x2 (2005, 2003)
Ryo Chonan (2005)
Murilo Rua (2001)
Renzo Gracie (2001)
Renato Sobral (2000)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2000)
Carlos Newton (1998)



Michael Bisping
17-1-0

UK

+Good cardio
+Good technical counterstriker; uses Muay Thai and kickboxing combinations well
+Great use of Muay Thai clinch

-Poor submission skill
-Does not have one strike KO power
-Questionable wrestling








Analysis

Henderson is a 38 year old former olympian, who still hasn't had a (T)KO loss in his 31 fight career. Bisping is a relative newcomer, but at 29 years old and having 18 fights, he is not green at all.

A huge problem presents itself for Bisping, and that is how to stop Henderson's takedowns. He could probably win the standup simply by pulling the Misaki strategy and sticking and moving, but sooner or later, he is going to have to sprawl.

Considering Bisping/Hammil, it's hard to see how he'll deal with Henderson; one could only hope that Rampage was training wrestling with Bisping 24/7, but even then Bisping does not have Rampage's strength.

Bisping also is not known for submissions, and if Hendo puts him on his back, expect the American to use much more aggressive techniques than his usual mouth covering. Bisping is going to have to do what he did to Leben to win, stick and move, be elusive and above all else, avoid clinching.

My Take

I expect this to look like Henderson/Franklin, with the American winning the first two rounds, putting the Englishman on his back, using some GnP and landing one or two big punches, and possibly gassing and losing the third, but doing enough to win convincingly and getting the unanimous decision.

Henderson enters at 1.43, while Bisping enters at 2.90. But Henderson is pretty much everything Matt Hammil is but much better. Henderson is a safe bet.



Georges 'Rush' St-Pierre vs. Thiago 'Pitbull' Alves
(170lbs/77kg)


Georges St.Pierre
18-2-0


Canada

+Olympic calibre wrestling
+Excellent blend of Kyokushin karate, boxing, and Muay Thai
+Explosive athlete
+Switches from striking to takedowns superbly
+Great training camp with brilliant gameplans
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Ferocious ground and pound
+Excellent cardio

-May have trouble fighting under pressure
-Possible lack of heart







Notable Wins:
BJ Penn x2 (2009, 2006)
Jon Fitch (2008)
Matt Serra (2008)
Matt Hughes x2 (2007, 2006)
Josh Koscheck (2007)
Karo Parisyan (2004)



Thiago Alves
16-3-0


Brazil

+Ferociously powerful striker
+Excellent Muay Thai combinations
+Probably the largest welterweight in the division
+Fantastic sprawl
+Very good at countering takedown attempts with knees

-Questionable cardio which may be worsened if he has difficulty making weight
-No submissions - only submission win was by 'punches.'
-No offensive wrestling





Notable Wins:
Josh Koscheck (2008)
Matt Hughes (2008)
Karo Parisyan (2008)

Analysis

Thiago Alves is the one man in Georges St. Pierre's way before he really has cleaned out the welterweight division, but it just so happens that this will likely be the toughest matchup there is.

Alves has a wonderful sprawl and very dangerous striking, meaning that he could cause GSP a ton of problems, and this should come down to whether Alves sprawl is better than GSP's takedowns or vice versa.

If Alves has enough confidance in his sprawl, he may open up with his Muay Thai, in which case he could do severe damage, but if he is put on his back successfully, and takes some GnP, then GSP will likely put him off balance, making him weary of being taken down, and thus fight defensively, and I could easily see GSP at that point outstriking him.

Another thing that has to be noted is that GSP has a black belt in BJJ, so there is a huge possiblity that Alves could get subbed on the ground, himsef being at purple belt level.

My Take

If Alves outsprawls St.Pierre, he'll probably win, but if St.Pierre outwrestles Alves, he'll probably win. At the moment I am leaning towards Alves, and at 3.60 he is a solid underdog. Very little value in betting at GSP at 1.29.



Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
(265lbs/120kg)

Brock Lesnar
3-1-0


USA

+Excellent wrestler; 2000 NCAA Heavyweight champion
+Extremely dangerous punching power
+Very athletic; 285lbs frame, but still moves very explosively
+Huge reach advantage

-Questionable sub defense
-Unreliable cardio
-Slow handspeed
-Basic boxing footwork or head movement





Notable Wins:
Randy Couture (2008)
Heath Herring (2008)


Frank Mir
12-3-0

USA

+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Excellent killer instinct
+Good kickboxing

-Questionable cardio
-Not fast on feet
-Still rudimentary striker








Notable Wins:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2008)
Brock Lesnar (2008)
Tim Sylvia (2004)

Analysis

This will likely be a boxing match for the first round or two, as Lesnar will likely be unwilling to risk fighting in Mir's guard, and Mir will not likely try to take Lesnar down in the early rounds, blowing his load early.

The striking is pretty even, with Mir probably having slighting cleaner and more technical kickboxing, and Lesnar being the harder and more explosive hitter, with one-punch KO power.

Whoever wins the striking will likely win the fight. If Lesnar wins it, Mir will be forced to try to take him down, maybe through pulling guard, and if he's losing the standup, he likely will be too rocked and gassed to succeed. If Mir gains the edge, Lesnar will be forced to take him down, where Mir will have a great chance of subbing him.

My Take

Lesnar may have an edge in standup, and he should be able to keep it off the ground. At 1.40, there's very little value in backing Lesnar.

But at 2.90, Mir is tempting. His standup looks good enough to damage Lesnar, and his ground game should be good enough to sub him if Lesnar reverts to wrestling instincts. At 2.90, Mir is a solid bet. Lesnar enters at 1.40
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