Welcome to another set of predictions for UFC 100, a card with no subtitle. Lines taken from bodog as always, and are presented in decimal form, which I'll explain, as always!
Odds are given as what your return would be for every €1.00/$1.00/£1.00 that you put down, so 1.53 means that for every 1.00 you bet, you get 0.53 in profit plus your original 1.00 back.
UNDERCARD
Matt 'The Real One' Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty
(155lbs/70kg)
Matt Grice
9-2-0
USA
+Strong wrestler
+Good top control
-Does not look comfortable striking
-Sub-par submission game
Shannon Gugerty
11-3-0
USA
+Jiu Jitsu brown belt
+Some Muay Thai background
-Poor wrestling
Analysis
Grice could be thought of as a lesser version of Mitsuhiro Ishida or Gray Maynard, being a wrestler with good top control and little ability to finish a fight, except probably without the awesome submission defense, which is pretty crucial.
Gugerty has an advantage on the feet or on the ground, so he Grice is going to need a good strategy here.
My Take
Gugerty by sub, round one. Grice is a wrestler and nothing else.
CB 'The Doberman' Dollaway vs. Tom 'The Filthy Mauler' Lawlor
(185lbs/84kg)
CB Dollaway
8-1-0
USA
+NCAA All-American wrestler
+Passable striking and grappling
-Still one dimensional
Tom Lawlor
5-1-0
USA
+Shoots for takedowns fast
+Works hard enough from top position
+Persistent with takedowns
-One-dimensional without submission or striking skills
Analysis
Lawlor is pretty much a wrestler, being a three-time National Wrestling Collegiate Association champion in college and an all state wrestler in high school. Bad matchup for him here, what with CB Dollaway being an All-American wrestler in college.
Neither have submission skills worth noting, but Dollaway has at least some striking, meaning he's better in the two areas where the fight will take place.
My Take
Dollaway by unanimous decision, by being better than Lawlor at his strength, wrestling, and by using better stand-up.
Dong Hyun 'Stun Gun' Kim vs. Jonathan 'The Road Warrior' Goulet
Analysis
The last minute replacement for Jonathan Goulet, Grant may have a small advantage standing but suffers from a very average sprawl.
Jim Miller vs. Mac Danzig (155lbs/70kg)
Shannon Gugerty 11-3-0
USA
+Jiu Jitsu brown belt
+Some Muay Thai background
-Poor wrestling
Analysis
Grice could be thought of as a lesser version of Mitsuhiro Ishida or Gray Maynard, being a wrestler with good top control and little ability to finish a fight, except probably without the awesome submission defense, which is pretty crucial.
Gugerty has an advantage on the feet or on the ground, so he Grice is going to need a good strategy here.
My Take
Gugerty by sub, round one. Grice is a wrestler and nothing else.
CB 'The Doberman' Dollaway vs. Tom 'The Filthy Mauler' Lawlor
(185lbs/84kg)
CB Dollaway
8-1-0
USA
+NCAA All-American wrestler
+Passable striking and grappling
-Still one dimensional
Tom Lawlor5-1-0
USA
+Shoots for takedowns fast
+Works hard enough from top position
+Persistent with takedowns
-One-dimensional without submission or striking skills
Analysis
Lawlor is pretty much a wrestler, being a three-time National Wrestling Collegiate Association champion in college and an all state wrestler in high school. Bad matchup for him here, what with CB Dollaway being an All-American wrestler in college.
Neither have submission skills worth noting, but Dollaway has at least some striking, meaning he's better in the two areas where the fight will take place.
My Take
Dollaway by unanimous decision, by being better than Lawlor at his strength, wrestling, and by using better stand-up.
Dong Hyun 'Stun Gun' Kim vs. Jonathan 'The Road Warrior' Goulet
(170lbs/77kg)
Dong Hyun Kim
11-0-1-1
South Korea
+4th degree Judo black belt
+Extremely difficult to shake off in clinch
+Has a very good habit of taking the back
-Bad standup defense
-Weak cardio
-Very few successful submissions
TJ Grant
Dong Hyun Kim 11-0-1-1
South Korea
+4th degree Judo black belt
+Extremely difficult to shake off in clinch
+Has a very good habit of taking the back
-Bad standup defense
-Weak cardio
-Very few successful submissions
TJ Grant14-2-0
Canada
+Jiu Jitsu purple belt
+Has the Basics of Muay Thai
+Decent takedowns
-Bad takedown defense
-Guard not hard to pass
-Basic defense standing
Canada
+Jiu Jitsu purple belt
+Has the Basics of Muay Thai
+Decent takedowns
-Bad takedown defense
-Guard not hard to pass
-Basic defense standing
Analysis
The last minute replacement for Jonathan Goulet, Grant may have a small advantage standing but suffers from a very average sprawl.
Kim took down Parisyan multiple times from the clinch and Parisyan is a Judo black belt. Kim will likely take Grant down and keep him there, but Grant may have a better chance of getting back up than Goulet would have had.
I don't see a submission win, nor a knockout for either fighter.
My Take
I'll take Kim via unanimous decision, since I don't think Grant will be able to keep himself from being taken down.
Jon 'Bones' Jones vs. Jake O'Brien
(205lbs/93kg)
Jon Jones
8-0-0
USA
+Junior College wrestling champion at Iowa
+Marvelous hip throws
+Good Thai Boxing
+Extreme reach advantage; stands at 6'4
+Confident enough to try rare techniques
-Bad cardio
-Inexperienced; may react badly to being hit
Jake O'Brien
11-2-0
USA
+Three time high school champion wrestler
+Good ground control
+Persistent takedowns
-Shots horribly telegraphed
-Too tentative when in an opponents guard
-No submission wins
-Below average striking
I don't see a submission win, nor a knockout for either fighter.
My Take
I'll take Kim via unanimous decision, since I don't think Grant will be able to keep himself from being taken down.
Jon 'Bones' Jones vs. Jake O'Brien
(205lbs/93kg)
Jon Jones8-0-0
USA
+Junior College wrestling champion at Iowa
+Marvelous hip throws
+Good Thai Boxing
+Extreme reach advantage; stands at 6'4
+Confident enough to try rare techniques
-Bad cardio
-Inexperienced; may react badly to being hit
Jake O'Brien 11-2-0
USA
+Three time high school champion wrestler
+Good ground control
+Persistent takedowns
-Shots horribly telegraphed
-Too tentative when in an opponents guard
-No submission wins
-Below average striking
Analysis
Jon Jones is being watched carefully by hardcore fans that believe they have found a prodigy, a future champ, after he ragdolled Bonnar and almost KO'd him on several occasions.
Jon Jones is being watched carefully by hardcore fans that believe they have found a prodigy, a future champ, after he ragdolled Bonnar and almost KO'd him on several occasions.
The 21-year old has certainly warranted their praise, but it will be a better test for him to fight O'Brien, who is a skilled wrestler and will not likely get thrown with ease.
O'Brien is a three-time high school state wrestling champion, and has had a successful run at heavyweight, only to losing to Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez, and having a good win over Heath Herring.
If Jones stops the takedown, he should take this, and with Jones being a Junior College wrestling champ himself, that should be very doable.
My Take
O'Brien is a three-time high school state wrestling champion, and has had a successful run at heavyweight, only to losing to Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez, and having a good win over Heath Herring.
If Jones stops the takedown, he should take this, and with Jones being a Junior College wrestling champ himself, that should be very doable.
My Take
I'm going to guess that Jones schools O'Brien in the standup, and that their wrestling cancels out, with Jones scoring a second Round TKO.
That's what I expect, but with Jones at 1.20 and O'Brien at 4.00, there is no real value on Jones, and there's always hope that O'Brien will take some benefits of experience to defeat Jones, such as cardio.
That's what I expect, but with Jones at 1.20 and O'Brien at 4.00, there is no real value on Jones, and there's always hope that O'Brien will take some benefits of experience to defeat Jones, such as cardio.
Jim Miller vs. Mac Danzig (155lbs/70kg)
Jim Miller 13-2-0
USA
+Very dangerous grappler
+Aggressive striking and good hand speed
+Extremely slick sweeps and submissions off back
+Aggressive from top position
+Great cardio
-Not much takedown defense
-Leaves himself open in stand-up defense
Mac Danzig
+Aggressive striking and good hand speed
+Extremely slick sweeps and submissions off back
+Aggressive from top position
+Great cardio
-Not much takedown defense
-Leaves himself open in stand-up defense
Mac Danzig18-6-1
USA
USA
+Well rounded; possesses good sprawl, good striking and good grappling.
+Very aggressive ground and pound
-Does not excel in any one area
-Not good off back
Analysis
Jim Miller is a ground specialist who has submitted a BJJ black belt in David Baron, and one of his biggest assets is that he fights at such a frenetic pace. Holes in his stand-up are made smaller by the fact that he charges for takedowns in the middle of his striking flurries, making it difficult to sprawl against.
Miller has only been beaten by Frank Edgar and Gray Maynard by decision, two great wrestlers with great sub-defense.
Danzig has a decent sprawl, but Mark Bocek took him down and was able to keep him there for a while. He will not want to repeat a performance like that against Miller.
Miller has only been beaten by Frank Edgar and Gray Maynard by decision, two great wrestlers with great sub-defense.
Danzig has a decent sprawl, but Mark Bocek took him down and was able to keep him there for a while. He will not want to repeat a performance like that against Miller.
My Take
Miller by unanimous decision, but since he's at 1.53, I would feel better backing Danzig at 2.55.
Miller by unanimous decision, but since he's at 1.53, I would feel better backing Danzig at 2.55.
Mark 'The Hammer' Coleman vs. Stephan 'The American Psycho' Bonnar
(205lbs/93kg)
Mark Coleman
15-9-0
USA
+Came 7th in 1992 Olympics at the 100kg class; 2nd in FILA World Freestyle Wrestling Championship. Still one of the best wrestlers in MMA
-Zero cardio
-Years of competition and age have left him badly worn
-Ability to finish fights very suspect
Notable Wins:
Igor Vovchanchyn (2000)
Dan Severn (1997)
Stephan Bonnar
11-5-0
USA
+Excellent heart and chin
+Good Jiu Jitsu
+Former Golden Gloves boxer
-Not much wrestling or takedown defense
Analysis
Coleman is still one of the best wrestlers in MMA, but only for one round. Anymore than that, he simply is not able to continue, due to horrible cardio that will not likely improve at this stage of his career, certainly not now that we have to add weight cutting into the mix. It was amazing that Shogun took so long to TKO him, based on how horrible his movement was.
I expect this to be similar, but with Bonnar having the cardio that Shogun lacked in UFC 93. Coleman will likely score a takedown or two, fail to do anything with it, and Bonnar will use his BJJ to stand, and he will punish Coleman in the standup.
My Take
Bonnar by TKO, Round Three. Coleman has way too much mileage on him. Although even still, with Coleman at 3.85 and Bonnar at 1.27, it is sort of tempting to bet on Coleman.
(205lbs/93kg)
Mark Coleman15-9-0
USA
+Came 7th in 1992 Olympics at the 100kg class; 2nd in FILA World Freestyle Wrestling Championship. Still one of the best wrestlers in MMA
-Zero cardio
-Years of competition and age have left him badly worn
-Ability to finish fights very suspect
Notable Wins:
Igor Vovchanchyn (2000)
Dan Severn (1997)
Stephan Bonnar11-5-0
USA
+Excellent heart and chin
+Good Jiu Jitsu
+Former Golden Gloves boxer
-Not much wrestling or takedown defense
Analysis
Coleman is still one of the best wrestlers in MMA, but only for one round. Anymore than that, he simply is not able to continue, due to horrible cardio that will not likely improve at this stage of his career, certainly not now that we have to add weight cutting into the mix. It was amazing that Shogun took so long to TKO him, based on how horrible his movement was.
I expect this to be similar, but with Bonnar having the cardio that Shogun lacked in UFC 93. Coleman will likely score a takedown or two, fail to do anything with it, and Bonnar will use his BJJ to stand, and he will punish Coleman in the standup.
My Take
Bonnar by TKO, Round Three. Coleman has way too much mileage on him. Although even still, with Coleman at 3.85 and Bonnar at 1.27, it is sort of tempting to bet on Coleman.
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