UFC 100: Fight Card Preview

The UFC celebrates a milestone this weekend with the UFC 100 fight card. While this is not the UFC’s 100th event, or even the 100th Pay-Per-View card, reaching the centennial mark is a great accomplishment for a promotion that was close to extinction only a few years ago.

Main Card

Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar

The UFC’s newest heavyweight hope, Brock Lesnar, will have the opportunity to stand alone at the top of the mountain, or suffer a major setback in his MMA hopes.

Most of the awe surrounding Lesnar revolves around his “massive” size and girth, but Frank Mir is not a small man by any means. While Lesnar will undoubtedly weigh-in at 265 lbs., Mir will probably tip the scales somewhere around 255 lbs. himself.

It would be foolish for me to suggest that Mir will be able to match Lesnar’s strength, but as far as physical size, I think both men will be pretty evenly matched.

Lesnar is also widely regarded for his background as a top collegiate wrestler, but those skills most likely won’t help him in this matchup against Frank Mir. Mir will gladly welcome Lesnar to the canvas in hopes of a repeat of their first matchup.

While Mir insists he has the tools to defeat Lesnar standing up, most fans recognize that the smart move is for Mir to attempt to work the fight to the mat and use his vastly superior submission skills.

Brock Lesnar definitely is a strong man, and in turn, a powerful striker, but let’s not forget this is still only Brock’s fifth professional fight. Powerful striking is not the same as technical striking, and it’s not the same has being an experienced striker.

While Mir is not known as a striker, his striking skills are up to par on a technical level with Lesnar’s. Working with Mark Delegrotte in training can only have improved Mir’s standup that much more.

While this fight truly could go either way in my mind, I have to give the nod to Frank Mir in this matchup, just for the experience factor.

I think Mir will be able to hold his own with Lesnar on the feet during the first round, and that will be enough to put some doubt into Lesnar’s mind. Eventually, Mir will be able to work the fight to the ground and pull off a submission victory to regain the heavyweight title outright.

Winner: Frank Mir

Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves

I’m looking forward to this fight for several reasons. First, I’m a huge GSP fan and always look forward to his fights, but I’m also excited to see GSP’s gameplan, and see him completely control another fight.

The UFC has been hyping Thiago Alves to no end, calling him “GSP’s toughest test to date”, and calling Alves a “bigger, stronger” opponent. I realize of lot of the talk is just the UFC “hype machine”, but I have to consider GSP’s last matchup with BJ Penn a tougher fight than facing Alves now.

The UFC 100 Countdown special on SpikeTV hyped the fact of how Alves quickly knocked out Matt Hughes, and how he dominated his last fight against Josh Koscheck. Not sure how they seem to forget that GSP also easily KO’d Matt Hughes and dominated Josh Koscheck as well.

Alves' strength is clearly his striking game, and more specifically his kicking game. While Alves may be a purely stronger fighter, I think St. Pierre’s boxing skills are equal to Alves’. I do give Alves the advantage in the kicking game, both in power and technical accuracy.

Alves' weakness is his ground game, however, and that is where Georges St. Pierre excels. GSP was able to effortlessly get takedowns against the likes of Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck, and BJ Penn, so I don’t see him struggling to bring Thiago Alves to the mat.

Takedowns are also one area where Alves’ kicking game will be a detriment to him. With a skilled wrestler and takedown artist like Georges St. Pierre, throwing a few leg kicks is like sending a huge invitation to be dragged down to the canvas.

I expect GSP to take the fight to the ground from the outset, and work his trademark ground-and-pound game to victory.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre

Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping

I have some pretty strong personal opinions about this matchup, mostly because I still don’t see the fascination with Michael Bisping. Sure, Bisping is a decent fighter, but in my opinion he is only pushed heavily by the UFC so they can secure successful events in Europe and the United Kingdom.

If we are going to be analytical, let's really look at Bisping’s career record in the UFC. His first victories were against Josh Haynes, Eric Schafer, and Elvis Sinosic. If anyone is impressed by any of those victories, then you shouldn’t be an MMA fan. Bisping was losing the Sinosic fight until he was able to turn things around in the second round.

Bisping’s next “victory” was against Matt Hamill, a fight that everyone outside of the UK acknowledges Bisping really lost. Next up was Rashad Evans, a loss that forced him to move down to the middleweight division.

Bisping was then handed a gift-wrapped opponent in Charles McCarthy, followed by Jason Day and Chris Leben. Not exactly any top-tier victories. Now I’m not saying Bisping is a bad fighter, I’m just saying he’s not a great fighter, and not on Dan Henderson’s level.

Bisping possesses solid striking, but a rather weak ground game. If Rich Franklin, Quinton Jackson, Wanderlei Silva, and a slew of other fighters have been unable to KO Hendo, I don’t think Bisping will either.

Dan Henderson should be able to win this matchup standing or on the ground. I anticipated “Hollywood” looking to take the fight to the ground and beat on Bisping early and often, as Dan is looking to punish Bisping and embarrass him.

Henderson’s wrestling and ground-and-pound game are easily too much for Bisping to handle, and will provide Henderson with an easy avenue for victory.

Winner: Dan Henderson

Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago

Why this matchup is even taking place has me seriously scratching my head. Jon Fitch is still one of the top three welterweights in the UFC, in my opinion. Paulo Thiago probably isn’t in the top 20.

Thiago first fought in the UFC at UFC 95 as a late replacement against Josh Koscheck. Thiago didn’t even have a guaranteed contract at the time, and was only fighting on a one-fight deal as a fill in. That is how little the UFC expected from him.

However, we all know what happened, and Thiago managed to knockout Koshcheck in the first round to improve his record to 11-0. So, the question remains: how good is Paulo Thiago?

The answer: not nearly good enough to defeat Jon Fitch, and not good enough to beat Josh Koscheck again, most likely.

Fitch’s striking is better, his wrestling is better, and, most likely, his ground game is at least on par, if not better than Thiago’s. I expect an extremely easy victory for Fitch.

Winner: Jon Fitch

Alan Belcher vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Japanese star Yoshihiro Akiyama will make his UFC debut after signing with the promotion back in February.

For whatever reason, Akiyama is bringing a lot of hype and expectation into this debut. I've covered Akiyama's checkered past before, and you can be certain he won’t be bringing any brass knuckles or body lotion into this matchup with Alan Belcher.

Akiyama does have strong punching power and good judo throws, and, if he fights smartly, he should be able to handle Belcher. However, we’ve seen in the past that fighters don’t always compete up to their potential the first time they step into the Octagon.

Belcher’s strength is his strong Muay Thai skills, his weakness has been consistency. We’ve seen Alan Belcher look like an explosive world beater, and we’ve also seen fights where Belcher looked like a middle of the pack fighter.

If Belcher can keep the fight from going to the ground, where he is weakest, I think he’ll be able to outpoint Akiyama, and perhaps gain a TKO victory.

Winner: Alan Belcher

Undercard

Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar – Winner: Stephan Bonnar
Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller – Winner: Jim Miller
Jon Jones vs. Jake O’Brien – Winner: Jon Jones
Dong Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant – Winner: Dong Hyun Kim
CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor – Winner: Tom Lawlor
Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty – Winner: Shannon Gugerty