NFL Draft 2014: Predictions for Day 1
If you're looking for draft "hot takes," head elsewhere.
Everyone has a mock draft or a general idea of how they believe the first round (or rounds) will go—either for their team or overall. Some of these opinions are based on personal preference or hope, others are based on doggedly following every draft expert and beat reporter on the Internet as to try and read the tea leaves of an unknowable future event.
This, in short, is my general idea of how the draft's first round is going to go.
I've provided some of it from the player perspective and some from the team perspective as well as looking at some general trends along the way.
Some of these predictions are sure to go wrong, because that's the nature of the beast. The draft is, at its core, an inexact science. Even the best mock drafts get submarined by a trade or some unforeseen pick—that's not just the media, that's the teams as well. So, some of these thoughts may get dashed early on.
Because of that, it's a fine line between trying to be "right" and making these predictions a little too safe. I've erred on the side of right, but tried my best to paint with broad-enough brush strokes so as not to pretend that I have some crystal ball.
Think I'm wrong? Think I'm crazy? Put your predictions on how the first round is going to go in the comments below.
Jadeveon Clowney Will Be Gone Before Pick No. 3
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Post-Draft Verdict: Right (first-overall pick)
As I said in the opening slide—but it bears repeating—anything can happen in the draft. Without trying to beat that dead horse, South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney lasting to pick No. 3 (or beyond) wouldn't be even close to the craziest thing that has happened in my decade covering the draft.
That being said, Clowney shouldn't get past the pick the St. Louis Rams currently hold at No. 2.
Right now, I believe the Houston Texans are still deciding whether or not they desperately need to take a quarterback at No. 1, if they go with the better overall player at a position of lesser need, or if they move the pick and try to get both a QB and a solid positional pick later.
Clowney fits into that scenario, and although Khalil Mack plays a similar position and might fit the Texans' scheme slightly better, Clowney is the better player, and figuring out how to use elite talents like Clowney is always a good problem to have.
If Clowney isn't taken No. 1, the Rams will get multiple offers for their first of two first-round picks at No. 2, and they will deal the pick for the biggest offer. In that scenario, Clowney could end up in any number of cities.
Either way, I don't see Clowney getting past the first two picks.
Eric Ebron Heads to a Team as *GASP* a Backup
2 of 10
Post-Draft Verdict: Right (Detroit Lions)
Teams don't draft while looking solely at a depth chart.
In fact, the game has long become more about the top 30-40 players on the roster rather than just the 11 starters on each side of the ball. Nickelbacks, swing tackles, multiple running backs, slot receivers, big nickel safeties, hybrid fronts—the game is more about roles than ever before.
One look at North Carolina tight end Eric Ebron and it's clear what his role will be. Though he can block (he's at least willing, if not entirely able), he's a pass-catcher at heart. He's closer to a big wide receiver like Vincent Jackson than a traditional tight end.
Because of that, teams like Detroit (with Brandon Pettigrew and Joseph Fauria), Pittsburgh (with Heath Miller) or Baltimore (with Dennis Pitta) will take long and hard looks at Ebron even if he ends up as the No. 2 guy on the depth chart.
Day 1 Will See 4 or More Cornerbacks Come off the Board
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Post-Draft Verdict: Right (Five: Gilbert, Fuller, Dennard, Verrett, Roby)
Justin Gilbert from Oklahoma State is my top corner.
His scouting report looks incredibly similar to that of Arizona Cardinals corner Patrick Peterson—not that he'll be the same caliber of player, but that he has a similar makeup. He's more athlete than technician right now, and that isn't a bad thing. Most top corners entering the league are in the same boat.
After Gilbert, Virginia Tech's Kyle Fuller is a near-lock as a first-round pick after proving healthy. He's a better cornerback than Gilbert now but without the top-flight, elite athleticism.
Those are the locks, but there could easily be a few more.
Jason Verrett from TCU: the undersized but ridiculously talented prospect. Maybe he's just a nickel corner at the next level, but he plays bigger than some of the taller prospects that others are falling in love with.
Darqueze Dennard from Michigan State: the press-man cover who everyone is looking for but without the athleticism needed to cover No. 1 receivers in the NFL. No offense, but the Big Ten isn't exactly full of players like Calvin and Andre Johnson.
After that group, there's a solid chance we could see at least one more of the following picked in the first round: Bradley Roby from Ohio State, Pierre Desir from Lindenwood, Stanley Jean-Baptiste from Nebraska or Phillip Gaines from Rice.
While I certainly don't think we'll see all eight, there's a better chance we'll see four or five than only two or three.
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No Running Backs Are Selected on Thursday
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Post-Draft Verdict: Right
In the grand scheme of predictions, maybe this one is cheap. Just about no one thinks a back is worth a first-round pick, so I'm not exactly going against the grain.
The second and third days of the draft could certainly feature backs like Ohio State's Carlos Hyde, Washington's Bishop Sankey, Kent State's Dri Archer or my personal favorite, Baylor's Lache Seastrunk. Plenty of backs will be taken this year, and plenty will contribute in their rookie seasons.
With so much depth at other positions and no clear-cut No. 1 with Adrian Peterson-like athleticism and potential, teams will likely follow what the media has been saying all along and keep the backs out of the first round for another year.
At Least 5 Trades Will Be Made in the First Round
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Post-Draft Verdict: Right (Cleveland moved down (1), then up (2). New Orleans moved up (3). Cleveland moved up with their second pick (4). Minnesota moved up to No. 32 (5).
2014 is made for trades.
We've seen more and more moving and shaking as of late, possibly a by-product of the draft's new format that allows teams to take more chances moving around in the first round; they know they'll have two nights during the process to reset and reassess their situation.
Moreover, this year brings us a incredibly deep class but with enough players up top to entice a team or two to think about trading up into the top half of the first round. Teams that need a pass-rusher will start jumping when UCLA's Anthony Barr is the only one of the top guys left. Teams that need a receiver will do the same once Clemson's Sammy Watkins and Texas A&M's Mike Evans are off the board.
Finally, we have two teams with multiple first-round picks (St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns), another team with an incredible amount of picks (San Francisco 49ers) and a sudden potential backlog of quarterbacks at the end of the first round possibly enticing teams like Houston, Jacksonville and Oakland to move back up.
4 or More Wide Receivers Will Hear Their Names Called in Round 1
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Post-Draft Verdict: Right (Watkins, Evans, Beckham Jr., Cooks, Benjamin)
Similar to the cornerbacks in the draft, this is a deep receiver group with plenty of first-round potential. Not only is the NFL continually evolving into a passing league, it is also being played more and more out on the perimeter—stretching the field not only vertically but horizontally as well.
Sammy Watkins from Clemson is the big dog here—though not literally. Though he's shorter than Texas A&M's Mike Evans, Watkins brings a ton to the table in terms of high-pointing the ball, making plays after the catch and exploding into and out of routes to keep defenders off-balance. He's similar to the Indianapolis Colts' Reggie Wayne, and he'll have a huge impact even if he isn't physically huge himself.
After that, Evans is the total package. He's the better athlete over similar tall receiver Kelvin Benjamin from Florida State, and he is the far more polished receiver as well. He should go in the draft's top 10 and may not get past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Odell Beckham Jr. from LSU is a favorite for some, but he'll face tough competition both on draft night and in his rookie season from guys like Brandin Cooks of Oregon State and Marqise Lee of USC. I put all three into the same category: Place them in the right system and magic could happen.
That's five already, and Benjamin could potentially make six.
Add in Cody Latimer of Indiana, Allen Robinson of Penn State, Davante Adams of Fresno State and Jordan Matthews of Vanderbilt, and there is suddenly a very good chance that we end up seeing a ton of receiver talent off the board Thursday night.
Of course, teams have to covet those talents as well, so plenty of teams are going to go for other positions and hope one of that group falls. Still, four is a conservative prediction, and we could see plenty more.
Aaron Donald Goes Top 10
7 of 10
Post-Draft Verdict: Wrong (Went No. 13 to St. Louis)
Coaches are getting smarter about this whole pass defense thing.
Think about it. Quarterbacks used to step back in a pocket, and the best way to get to them was bringing a speedster around the edge and hit the quarterback from his blindside. Nowadays, though, that quarterback is likely back in shotgun much of the time and sees that defensive end coming from a mile away.
More and more, teams are finding that collapsing the pocket is a far more effective way to pressure the elite quarterbacks in today's NFL.
Enter Aaron Donald.
Slightly undersized, Donald is ferocious enough to play a number of positions and could easily add some weight to his frame if a 3-4 team asked him to play defensive end. His most tailor-made NFL position is 3-technique (or "undertackle"), and some teams value those interior pass-rushers just as much as they used to value the ends.
SEC Rules the Day...Again
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Post-Draft Verdict: Push (SEC had most picks, yes, but with only 11 they didn't "match or surpass" their 12 picks from the first-round last year).
In 2013, the SEC had 63 players selected in the entire draft and 12 in the first round.
This year could match or even surpass that.
Texas A&M alone has three players who should be first-rounders—left tackle Jake Matthews, quarterback Johnny Manziel and wide receiver Mike Evans—and there's a chance those three are all top-10 picks.
National championship runner-up Auburn has left tackle Greg Robinson and pass-rusher Dee Ford.
Alabama—maybe a bit of a down year for their draft prospects—should have linebacker C.J. Mosley and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix drafted and could easily add left tackle Cyrus Kouandjio to that mix.
Jadeveon Clowney (S. Carolina), Odell Beckham Jr. (LSU), Kony Ealy (Missouri), Ju'Wuan James (Tennessee) and Dominique Easley (Florida) could all add to that number.
Teddy Bridgewater Will Be Selected in the First Round
9 of 10
Post-Draft Verdict: Right (but barely...he went No. 32).
Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is still the top quarterback on my board.
With Matt Miller joining me on this bandwagon, maybe it seems like Bleacher Report is just being stubborn with our Bridgewater love, but in all honesty, I'd rather be stubborn with my beliefs than simply change them because of an average (not bad, not terrible...average) pro day.
Thing is, I know there are teams that agree with me.
Bridgewater may be slight, but he's the same size as Fresno State's Derek Carr. He may have hands that barely cross the 19-inch threshold, but they're the same size as Eastern Illinois' Jimmy Garoppolo. He may have played in an easier schedule at Louisville, but it's the same schedule as Central Florida's Blake Bortles.
All of the criticisms of Bridgewater are real (overblown, but real). Yet, they fail to convince me when they're used to drop him past people of which they apply just as much if not more.
Since November, I've watched every snap of Bridgewater's college career, and he's ready for the NFL. He's run a pro-style offense and really run it—not just taking cues from the sidelines, but assessing defenses, changing the play, moving protection schemes and calling hot routes. He may not have the strongest arm, but he can make every throw.
All of that—plus the umpteen teams that need a passer, badly—tells me that Bridgewater is a first-round pick.
Johnny Manziel Will Be the First Quarterback Drafted
10 of 10
Post-Draft Verdict: Wrong (Blake Bortles went No. 3 to Jacksonville, Manziel went No. 22 to Cleveland)
While we're on the subject of quarterbacks...
I have Bridgewater as my No. 1 QB, but it seems like most NFL teams have Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel as their top guy. There's a lot to love about Manziel, and I've always said there's a little bit of Brett Favre in him—in both a positive and negative way.
Favre was a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback, but he also threw a ton of interceptions. Like Favre, Manziel loves to extend plays and will often make plays that others dare not attempt, but some of those are picks waiting to happen at the NFL level.
Manziel still needs to take another step toward becoming an efficient short-to-intermediate-range passer before he's a complete NFL prospect, but that shouldn't stop him from going in the very top of the first round—the potential is there for greatness.
Michael Schottey is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. Find more of his stuff on his archive page and follow him on Twitter.
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