On Thin Ice: 5 Signs Pointing to a Short Playoff Run for the Pittsburgh Penguins

Despite impressive wins in their last two games, the Pittsburgh Penguins find themselves in the unfamiliar position of looking up at the Metropolitan Division leaders instead of looking down at the rest of the division.

After a strong start this season with a revamped roster and new coaching staff, the Pens looked as if they would breeze through the regular season as they have in previous years, but their offensive output is down and concern among their fans is up.

Having collapsed in the postseason yet again last year and with only the final quarter of the regular season left to right the ship, let's take a look at five reasons why the Pens could be looking at yet another early offseason.

Inability to Come from Behind

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While the Penguins have proven to be fast starters and lead the NHL with 62 first-period goals, they have yet to prove that they have what it takes to come from behind to win games.

With a record of 0-10-4 when trailing after two periods, the Pens and the Winnipeg Jets (0-16-3) have the dubious distinction of being the only teams without a third-period comeback.

When you consider that the goal of the Pens' puck-possession system is to wear teams down through forechecking, quick transitions and shot volume, their inability to overcome third-period deficits is even more troubling.

Having scored just 50 third-period goals, which ranks 20th out of 30 teams, the Pens must find a way to bounce back late in games down the stretch and in the postseason if they have any chance of avoiding a repeat of their recent dismal postseason performances.

Lack of Discipline

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For the past few seasons, the Penguins have been criticized for not showing enough grit, especially against bigger and more physical teams in the playoffs.

This year, however, the door to the penalty box seems to have swung the other way. After being in the bottom third of the league in 2013-14 with 10.1 penalty minutes per game, the Pens are racking up a league-high 14.3 penalty minutes per game this season.

While the Penguins have clearly been more physical, they have not always been disciplined, as was the case in their February 17 loss to the Washington Capitals where two ill-advised penalties late in the third period of a tie game led to a five-on-three power-play goal and a 3-1 defeat.

Unless they can show an ability to play with both brawn and brains, the Pens could find themselves suffering another first-round meltdown like they suffered against the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012.

Poor Shot Differential

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Considering their wealth of offensive talent and newly installed puck-possession system that emphasizes quantity of shots over quality, the Penguins' paltry plus-1.4 shot differential is cause for concern.

While the Pens have fared better this season (20-5-5) than last season (27-13-4) when holding the shot advantage, they have been much worse (14-12-4 compared to 24-11-3) when the shots are even or in favor of their opponent.

Unlike previous years, this Pens team is built to outshoot their opponents and doesn't have the skill to be outshot and still win consistently.

When you add the fact that two division rivals, the New York Islanders (plus-5.9) and the New York Rangers (plus-1.9), are first and tenth respectively in team shot differential, it reinforces the fact that the Pens must find a way to tilt the ice more in their favor, especially in the playoffs.

More Puck Pursuit Than Puck Posession

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As the name implies, Penguins head coach Mike Johnston's puck-possession system places a great deal of emphasis on gaining and maintaining control of the puck and operating as a five-man unit.

Unfortunately, the Penguins are just 26th in takeaways and 19th in faceoff win percentage out of 30 teams, and this inability to secure position has allowed opponents to dictate the style of play and often pin the Pens' top lines in their own zone.

In addition, opponents have focused on standing up at the blue line and daring the Pens to play "dump and chase" hockey, knowing that given their difficulties in gaining possession, they are hesitant to do so.

Given that each of the last three Stanley Cup champions have finished in the top 10 in either takeaways, faceoff percentage or both, it's clear that the Pens can't spend so much time and effort chasing the puck and expect to have any real shot at chasing the Stanley Cup.

Lack of Adjustments

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Having been named Penguins head coach in part because of his predecessor’s perceived inability to make adjustments both during a game and during playoff series, Mike Johnston seems to be falling into the same trap that claimed Dan Bylsma.

While they don't share philosophies or systems, they do share a strong belief in the strength of their respective systems, and Johnston, like Bylsma, seems hesitant to employ anything else even when the situation dictates.

In the past, the Pens have blown through the regular season, where teams do not make major adjustments for one game, only to struggle in the postseason, where they do make such adjustments.

This year, however, it's been a different story as the Pens are just 14-11-6 against teams currently holding a playoff spot and just 7-11-4 against their divisional rivals.

Given their struggles, it's clear that the book on how to beat the Pens is out and Johnston will need to make adjustments in the regular season in preparation for what the Pens will face in the postseason.

Should the Pens bow out early in the playoffs yet again, Johnston will take the blame, and with Mike Babcock serving out the final year of his contract in Detroit and viewed by many as the perfect fit in Pittsburgh, could end up as a former Penguins head coach like Dan Bylsma.