For just the second time since 1996, we have an No. 11 vs. No. 10 clash in the Sweet 16, and both the Dayton Flyers and Stanford Cardinal come in on winning runs in this South Region semifinal.
The Stanford Cardinal have won 10 of their last 12 straight up when installed as the favorite, while Dayton has covered six of seven overall.
The Flyers have also been a solid bet when getting points at the betting window, as they have covered the spread eight times in 11 tries this season in this situation.
Spread and total points scored betting line
The Cardinal opened as two-point favorites, but the spread was climbing early in the week to minus-3. The total was 133.5. (Compare lines and consensus picks on the Odds Shark matchup report)
Odds Shark computer pick
Why pick Dayton to cover the spread
The No. 11 Flyers have certainly shaken off their Atlantic 10 tournament loss to St. Joseph’s by ripping off consecutive upsets in the tournament.
Dayton has dispatched Ohio State and Syracuse using a stingy defense and match up well with a Cardinal team that has averaged just 59 points in their last three games.
Why pick Stanford to cover the spread
No. 10 seed Stanford’s win over New Mexico wasn’t that big of a surprise. The win over Kansas, however, was earth-shattering for many who believed the Jayhawks were headed to the Final Four.
Stanford likes to play a defensive game as well, allowing no more than 63 points to six of its last seven opponents, going 5-2 in those games. The Cardinal have also been solid when favored, winning 10 of 12 games recently in this role.
Smart betting pick
It’s very tough to argue either side of this game when there’s a good rebuttal for both. Dayton is on an 8-3 against-the-spread run as an underdog this season, so you can expect the Flyers to have their defensive game on point in this one.
But the line is too short to count out the stingy Cardinal, who have stayed UNDER in six of their last seven. Look for both these teams to play it tight and the total to stay low.
Dayton Flyers: No. 48
Stanford Cardinal: No. 123 (per Odds Shark power ranks)
March Madness betting trends
- Just second time for 11 vs. 10 matchup since 1996 (No. 11 VCU beat FSU in 2011)
- Dayton 6-1 ATS past seven games
- Dayton 8-3 ATS in 11 games as dog this season
- Six of past seven Stanford games played UNDER the total
- Stanford 10-2 SU past dozen games as favorites