Roaming the Outfield: Backpedaling through May

With the second month of the season in the books, the last 31 days have shed some light on crowded situations and potential short-term solutions for owners needing offense out of a stagnant roster. Developments from early this month in Baltimore has created shuffling in the ranks, and a move on the final day could have ramifications for another team in the AL East.

The Orioles are sitting with a problem: Five players, four spots. Until they realize what the Cubs did, there is going to be a logjam that owners will not be able to avoid.

What is that piece of information? That Felix Pie is not good. He’s certainly the weak link of the Orioles current outfield rotation, but, unless he is played, the team can’t even develop a trade market for him. 

His at-bats are likely to shrink, but until he’s regularly seen on the bench, fantasy owners will need to adjust lineups on a seemingly daily basis.
 
Pie becomes an issue because of the performances of Luke Scott, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, and Nick Markakis. For all intents and purposes, Markakis doesn’t even need to enter the discussion. He’s cemented himself within that organization, and his spot in the lineup is completely secure.  

The interesting point on his month? He had the fewest home runs of the four mentioned, and the lowest batting average.
 
Scott and Jones are hopefully going to bring the power most regularly. Even in an abbreviated 40 at-bats in May, Scott slugged eight home runs, drove in 18, and hit .400. The fact is, his BABIP has to normalize. As of May 31, Scott has that number up to .321.  

Last year, he was 30 points lower. It’s possible for Scott to hit above the .260 mark we saw in 2008 and the .255 from 2007, but he is more bound for .280 than for .310. Still, he’s no worse than the everyday DH for the Orioles.
 
Jones is on his way to a breakout season. His May numbers were phenomenal, and he’s not showing signs of slowing. With seven home runs and a .330 average, he’s got a solid hold of his spot.
 
That brings us to Reimold. Unfortunately, he’s the one slated to be hurt the most from the team’s continued use of Pie. In 60 at-bats, he posted five home runs and a .267 average. Reimold has been always been able to generate power, and we’re seeing that during this current stint. 

He should displace Pie permanently by the end of this month, especially if he continues hitting this way. Still, owners need to be wary. Even playing three out of five, he will hit 20 home runs and hover right around that .270 mark.
 
The scene in Boston, though, is slightly different. The starters are performing well, but the runs simply aren’t being produced. While what the Red Sox did Sunday was a first, it’s likely that Jacoby Ellsbury is dropped down in the order against left-handed pitching.  

Ellsbury has had problems facing the southpaws for the majority of the season. Against them, his average falls all the way down to .232 with a .268 OBP.
 
To be certain, the Red Sox outfielder is not struggling. His home/road splits are nearly identical, posting a .293 average on the road and a .308 mark at Fenway. Better, his peripheral stats support the average.  

Yes, his BABIP mark is above where he landed in 2008 by about ten points, but it’s not a statistically significant enough difference to be concerned with.
 
It would be logical for Terry Francona to make the move against left-handed starters to give his lineup the best chance to win. With Dustin Pedroia’s .284 mark, and J.D. Drew’s overall patience, the lineup functions more smoothly.
 
If this is the overall approach, it happens maybe once a week. Ellsbury, though, was slated to bat sixth against right-handed starter Rick Porcello in Detroit on Tuesday. Should the move be more permanent, his ability to score runs and even steal bases could be slightly hampered.
 
With Jason Varitek hitting directly in front of him and Mike Lowell only another spot up, station-to-station baseball would be more of a necessity. Since Julio Lugo, Nick Green, or Jed Lowrie (when healthy) would be hitting behind him, the offense required to produce runs could stagnate. Green has played well, but there is nothing to hold owners to the belief that he could continue this pace over an entire season.
 
Still, the savvy owner can capitalize on the fact that someone may be disenchanted with any drop of Ellsbury in the lineup. Everyone understands his speed, but an owner could leverage this shift as well as the return of Mark Kotsay into the speedy centerfielder at a slightly reduced cost.
 
Moving outside the AL East, waiver wire work is proving valuable again this season. With ownership of Juan Pierre and Michael Cuddyer shooting up based on their play in the last few weeks, owners need to find other places for distinct category help. That can come in many ways, shapes, and forms.  

The season is still young enough to make moves in rotisserie-style scoring leagues, and head-to-head owners can gain ground on a weekly basis to generate momentum and swing the standings.
 
If the focus was solely on RBI production, more than 50 outfielders drive in at least 12 runs. Of those 50, 19 are available in at least 50 percent of ESPN leagues. One of those is Jack Cust. While Cust is likely to kill your average, as evidenced by his .240 number for May, he drives in runs.  

His 18 for May are good for 11th among outfielders for the month. Given the injury history of many on the Oakland roster, Cust will find ways to get at-bats.
 
Still just 20 years old, Gerardo Parra is producing in Arizona. Owners should only be concerned with how much longer. Conor Jackson will eventually come back and need a place in the lineup, but considering he struggled with fatigue after hitting off a tee, that could be a ways off.  

Parra is hitting well and driving in runs, similar to what Jackson does, as neither has shown much power. He drove in 16 during a partial month, and is certainly valuable in at least NL-only formats based on his production.
 
Scott Hairston has been considered a strong hitter against left-handed pitching, and his .393 average in 56 at-bats proves that. Still, he hits .292 against righties. Is it a big drop? Yes. Is it unmanageable? Not at all. Hairston closed in on .320 for the month of May and hit five home runs to go 12 RBI.
 
While Hairston doesn’t generate the speed of Ellsbury, pairing the two together would help fantasy production, as they complement each other well.
 
Need some home runs? Don’t sleep on Josh Willingham. The Nationals outfielder has done a lot for his stock this month, but still doesn’t have wide ownership. In 76 at-bats, he hit .303 with eight home runs.
 
After being stuck at .212 on May 12th, Willingham has now raised his average above .250 and has become more of a regular in the Nationals lineup. He has a hit in each of his last eight starts. While the activation of Elijah Dukes could eat into his appearances, Willingham is going to produce more consistently than Austin Kearns and Willie Harris. Expect the outfielder to hit 20 home runs for the fourth time in his career.
 
In more shallow leagues, options like Brad Hawpe and Jayson Werth may still be sitting on waivers. It’s out in the middle of the country, though, where owners might want to look. With the state of flux in Cleveland that results from Grady Sizemore heading to the DL, Shin-Soo Choo becomes a more desirable starter.  

Choo is available in about 15 percent of all leagues, and he managed to drive in 19 runs and hit four home runs in 101 at-bats. He’ll be one of the harder to find, but his moderate availability is worth mentioning here.

The Indians have some short-term flexibility problems. They likely won’t be able to play Kelly Shoppach or Victor Martinez at DH, as they’ll risk losing their DH spot with an in-game injury to one or the other.  

Since Travis Hafner isn’t yet ready to return, Choo and Ben Francisco are the most likely in line to take up the remaining at-bats. Yes, Choo is already an everyday player, but this changes the lineup dynamic and will adjust his position to where owners could see more RBI from him.

Collin Hager writes The Elmhurst Pub fantasy blog. You can get your questions answered by sending an email to [e-mail]. He's also on Twitter @TheRoundtable. This article originally posted at www.fantasypros911.com.