Fantasy Football: A Wining Draft Strategy For 2009

Hey guys, hope your all heavily engaged in fantasy baseball right now like I am.  Fantasy Sports are great; they keep us following the sport to a tee and they allow you to become an expert on players within the league. 

Anyways, this is fantasy football that we are talking about, (specifically draft strategy), so as that captain on Spike's tv show "MXC" would say, "Get it on".

Last year, we saw a star quarterback go down before taking one snap (Tom Brady), a fantasy legend show some age in the wake of a "down" year (Ladanian Tomlinson), and an unlikely running back lead all backs in fantasy points (DeAngelo Williams).  What we also saw (as we do every year) was many injuries, primarily to running backs, the position that arguably takes the most pounding year after year—swiftly prompting teams to turn to a running back by committee approach.

So, what does all this information mean?

For one, the market for top tier running backs has been rung dangerously thin.  In my opinion, the only truly safe first round type talent remaining in the RB pool includes: 

Adrian Peterson, Michael "The Burner" Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Matt Forte. 

That's it. 

"Where's Steven Jackson," you say. Well I say where's he been the past two years?  And Chris Johnson, well unfortunately he is stuck in that dreaded acronym "rbbc" thus failing to meet the safe aspect from these prerequisites listed.

Again, what does this information all mean?

It means that we need to approach our drafts with a different mind-set, a different approach. 

Now, I'm not going to babble on about the so called "psychological" aspect of throwing your opponents off, or of having a tiering sheet, (although there is only good that can come out of that), but I will talk about what positions to target, and where at (specifically what rounds).

Let's get the basics out of the way first shall we? 

Always draft your kicker with your last pick.  NO exceptions, at all. 

Trying to predict who the top kicker will be at year's end is akin to winning the lotto, it ain't gonna happen.  Defenses are a tad easier to predict, just because they actually have an outlook at the beginning of the season, where as next to no information is available about kickers at that same time.

Now, this is the meat and potatoes of what we are all reading this article for, the specifics, the goods.  In the first round, picks 1-6, (I'll include Johnson here, disregarding my early comment of him), you'll want to go RB.  They are by far the most consistent, strongest part of your fantasy team.  I've tried to field teams without a star running back, trying to dance around the notion of needing one or two great backs to win, not too surprisingly, it didn't work out to well.

First Round:  Get one of the top six running backs if you can, if not, draft the top available wide receiver.  While this is not unheard of, it is not looked after too highly amongst the eyes of seasoned fantasy football vets.  But here's the logic, you'll be drafting a WR sometime, might as well get the best one of the league's best and not draft a running back who isn't safe.

Second Round:  In scenario one, you get a top six back, nothing to scoff at and great to build your team around.  Here, you will definitely want to grab the best wideout available, since waiting even one more round will push you into the pool of wr's that have question marks.  In scenario two, you have a top wideout, and here's the big twist from this article to any other you'll read, you'll want to take another, yes I just said that, you will want to grab another wide receiver, you can stop pinching yourself and rubbing your eyes.  The rationale is simple, the running backs from rounds two to four are statistically comparable where as wide receivers are not.  Let's play Player A, Player B

Player A:  885 rush yards, 10 total td's

Player B:  1089 rush yards, 15 total td's

Player A is Marion Barber, who was on average drafted in the second round of fantasy drafts last year.

Player B is Brandon Jacobs, who on average was drafted at the end of the third and even into the fourth round of drafts.

One more time, this time for wide receivers:

Player A:  1575 yards, 8 td's

Player B:  821 receiving yards, 5 td's

Player A is Andre Johnson, who on average was drafted in round two of fantasy drafts last year.

Player B is Santonio Homes, who generated almost as much hype as Mr. Johnson, and was on average taken in the fourth and fifth round of fantasy drafts.

Third Round:  In scenario one, we have a top-six running back, and a top-10 wideout.  Now, you want to take a running back that compliments who you took in round uno.  If you took a yardage machine who gets the boot at he goal-line, then maybe it's time to snatch up Jonathan Stewart, who had 10 touchdowns last year while playing on a newly surgically repaired toe.  Did you grab a touchdown maker in round one?  Then take a yardage horse such as a Ryan Grant.  In scenario two, we have a pair of stud WR's.  It's time to take a running back now, the best available works.

Later rounds: In scenario one you will want to take about two more running backs while mixing in a QB and two good WR's somewhere in rounds six through eight (the WR's preferable coming first).  In scenario two, it's a good idea to stack on some sleeper RB's such as Chris "Beanie" Wells, who happens to be my favorite sleeper on the year, Shonn Greene, and Rashard Mendenhall.  Take a QB somewhere in rounds six through eight and you should be set.

The goal is to grab the best available player, while avoiding rbbc messes and injury risks.

I'm Taylor Rummel, (The Fantasy Football Wonder) and that's been Fantasy Football:  A winning draft strategy for 2009.