New York Yankees: Predictions for the Next 3 Years of Yankees' Baseball
As we are smack dab in the middle of baseball's free-agent season. Now is a time full of hope for fans of every MLB team. It is a period where visions of glory and supreme optimism run rampant and speculation as to who will be standing in the end invade the mind.
Even though baseball isn't being played, the passion for it remains in the heart, and as the snow covers the ground, the sport stays relevant and "fun."
With that in mind, let's take a stab at predicting what the next three years will bring for the Bronx Bombers.
2014 Yankees
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It goes without saying the Yankees team that takes the field on Opening Day in 2014 will be vastly different than the one that finished a distant third in the AL East in 2013.
Gone is All-Star second baseman Robinson Cano who signed a mega-deal with the Seattle Mariners. Left-handed relief specialist Boone Logan has reportedly signed with the Colorado Rockies. Other departures include Phil Hughes (signed with Minnesota Twins), Joba Chamberlain (Detroit Tigers), Chris Stewart (traded to Pittsburgh Pirates), Andy Pettitte (retired) and of course Mariano Rivera (retired).
To say that this offseason would be a busy one for GM Brian Cashman would be an understatement. He has begun to rebuild the team. New York Times sports reporter David Waldstein tweeted that Cashman apparently has the blessings of owner Hal Steinbrenner to exceed the much discussed $189 million payroll goal that would avoid the imposition of a luxury tax.
"Yankees teetering close to $189 M, depending on what happens with A-Rod suspension. Person who knows Hal says he has given OK to go over.
— David Waldstein (@DavidWaldstein) December 7, 2013"
The biggest signings to date for the Yankees are former Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann, Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, and St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Carlos Beltran. When healthy, all three should help to bolster a lineup that ranked 16th in runs scored last season.
The Yankees' GM added depth by signing free-agent infielders Kelly Johnson and Brendan Ryan.
Cashman knows that there is more work to be done. The team still needs to replace Logan in the bullpen and fill out a starting rotation that has only CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Hiroki Kuroda set in stone. The biggest question marks surround who ultimately replaces Cano at second and whether the highly regarded Japanese pitching star Masahiro Tanaka will be posted. Should the latter occur, count on the Yankees to be among the most aggressive in pursuit of the right-hander.
Needless to say, the Yankees will remain active right up to the doorstep of the new season.
So, what will the new additions and subtractions mean for 2014?
Let's assume that Tanaka gets posted and the Yankees land him. Without acquiring another free-agent starting pitcher, the fifth spot in the rotation comes down to a battle between Michael Pineda, David Phelps, Adam Warren and David Huff. We'll put our money on Pineda (based on his "upside") and say that the rotation heading into the first week of 2014 looks like:
Sabathia
Tanaka
Kuroda
Nova
Pineda
From a Yankees' fan perspective it looks like a pretty formidable starting five.
In the bullpen the team has Phelps, Huff, Warren and 23-year-old Brett Marshall for middle and long relief. Preston Claiborne, Shawn Kelly and probable closer David Robertson headline candidates for short relief stints. The left-handed specialist role that manager Joe Girardi depended on Logan to fill remains open and the team could possibly look to 23-year-old Manny Banuelos as the solution.
In the field and at the plate the Yankees already look improved over last season's 85 win team. Rumors persist that the team has made an offer to second baseman Omar Infante, and though the latest report is that he is looking for one more year than the Yankees are offering, we'll put him down as manning second base in the Bronx on Opening Day.
With that piece of the puzzle in place, the lineup to begin 2014 could look like:
Ellsbury CF
Jeter SS
Beltran RF
Teixeira 1B
McCann C
Soriano DH
Johnson 3B
Infante 2B
Gardner LF
This lineup, of course, makes some assumptions. Namely, that Alex Rodriguez will serve some sort of suspension to begin the year, and that Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira begin the season healthy.
On the bench the team will have Ichiro Suzuki (outfield), Brendan Ryan (infield) and Francisco Cervelli (catcher).
The lineup represents upgrades at first base, shortstop, center field and right field. Those upgrades should be enough to off-set the drop in production at second base that the loss of Cano provides.
With a solid rotation, adequate bullpen, and an improved multifaceted lineup, the 2014 New York Yankees should reach the 93-to-95 win range and return to the playoffs.
2015
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Trying to guess the Yankees lineup on a daily basis is brutal, so you can understand that attempting to determine what their roster will be two and three years out is pure speculation.
Here's what we know for certain heading into 2015: Derek Jeter will be a free agent, and depending how 2014 goes, either the Yankees will re-sign him to another one year contract or he will retire.
We will assume it is the former and that 2015 will be the Yankee captain's swan song. In much the same manner that teammate Mariano Rivera made his farewell tour, Jeter will be lauded at every ballpark throughout the season as he wraps up a certain Hall of Fame career.
Elsewhere in the field, Mark Teixeira remains at first base, Omar Infante at second and Alex Rodriguez at third.
Behind the plate, Brian McCann will continue to endear himself to the Yankees' faithful with gritty play and displays of power.
In the outfield, Jacoby Ellsbury enters the second year of his seven year contract as the team's center fielder, Carlos Beltran will again man right field and left fielder Brett Gardner will be awarded a significant increase in salary from the Yankees in an effort to keep the speedy left-hander in the Bronx (he's a free agent in 2015).
Depth for the everyday starters will include Brendan Ryan and Francisco Cervelli. In all likelihood 39-year-old Alfonso Soriano will not be brought back as other potential designated hitters will be pursued via free agency (Adam Dunn, Victor Martinez and Pablo Sandoval).
Outfield depth will most likely come from within as Slade Heathcott, Mason Williams and Tyler Austin begin to come into their own.
Remembering that this is the Yankees and history has taught us that no player is a definite from one year to the next. Here is a speculative look at the 2015 lineup:
Ellsbury CF
Jeter SS
Beltran RF
Teixeira 1B
McCann C
Rodriguez 3B
V. Martinez DH
Infante 2B
Gardner LF
The rotation will lose Hiroki Kuroda who, at 40, will decide to pitch one final year in Japan. Entering 2015 there will be a number of top-flight free-agent pitchers available. They include John Lester, Brandon McCarthy, Max Scherzer, Homer Bailey, Justin Masterson, Jake Peavy, and Clayton Kershaw. While it is expected that the Los Angeles Dodgers will retain Kershaw, it is likely that the Yankees will be in the running for at least one of the others.
The rest of the starting five should carry over from 2014 and the predicted rotation will be:
Sabathia
Tanaka
Bailey
Nova
Pineda
In the bullpen, David Robertson will remain entrenched as the closer and the Yankees will pay top dollar to keep the free agent. His supporting cast will remain fairly stable with Claiborne, Banuelos, Warren, Phelps, Huff and Kelley.
In 2015 the Yankees will once again reach the playoffs and make a run at a title. The prediction for this squad is 95-to-100 wins.
2016
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As difficult as it may be to comprehend, 2016 could very well be the most stable the Yankees are as a team.
The only free agent the team could lose is Shawn Kelley. The most probable retirement is that of Derek Jeter, though there is always the possibility that others could join him.
A first glance at our predicted rotation shows little or no change. Should everyone perform as planned in 2015, the starting five would remain:
Sabathia
Tanaka
Bailey
Nova
Pineda
The bullpen closer is David Robertson and his supporting cast remains Claiborne, Phelps, Huff, Warren and Banuelos. Others potentially breaking into relief roles are Brett Marshall, Dellin Betances and Jose Campos.
In the field the Yankees will need to replace Jeter at shortstop. Free agents available will be Jimmy Rollins, Mike Aviles, Ian Desmond, Yunel Escobar and Ramiro Pena (yes, Yankees' fans, THAT Ramiro Pena).
Let's assume the Yankees are intrigued by Aviles and willing to sign the 35-year-old to a short-term contract while hoping that a "baby Bomber" in their minor league system develops (Eric Jagielo, currently at Single-A Staten Island will be 24 years old in 2016 and has shown promise).
In the outfield, Carlos Beltran's age could mean the star begins seeing the majority of time at DH. That would allow the Yankees to bring the likes of Williams, Austin and Heathcott into the regular mix.
Here's the potential lineup for 2016:
Gardner LF
Austin RF
Ellsbury CF
Teixeira 1B
McCann C
Rodriguez 3B
Beltran DH
Aviles SS
Infante 2B
The bench will have Cervelli, Williams, Ryan and a free-agent addition (Billy Butler?).
2016 will represent a final run at the playoffs for this current configuration that we've put together. Teixeira, Sabathia, Nova, Pineda, Cervelli, Ryan, Huff and Beltran will all be free agents at the end of the season. Given the age of most, it is unlikely that all would return to the Bombers.
Look for our predicted team to make one last run together and finish with 93-to-95 wins and play well into October.
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