How good is Justin Fargas?
Things we can agree on: Fargas is fast. He came out of nowhere last year to have a productive season, rushing for 1009 yards on 222 carries while starting seven games. Fargas runs hard, doesn't avoid contact, keeps to himself, and seems like a great teammate. He waited patiently until he received his chance, then made the most of it.
We can also agree that dating back to college, Fargas has rarely gone an entire season without missing games due to injury. That said, if Fargas stays healthy next year, he can have another productive season in Oakland's one-cut running scheme.
What we may not agree on: Fargas is an average running back. We can break this down two ways—through stats, or through observation. Let's begin with the numbers. Fargas started each game between weeks ten and 15. He had zero rushes over 30 yards. These were his yards-per-rush averages: 3.5, 2.7, 6.3, 4.4, 3.8, and 3.4. We lost four of those games, with three of them (vs Bears, at Vikings, vs Colts) being non-blowouts.
During that stretch, Fargas had a 4+ yards-per-carry average only against the Broncos and the Chiefs. Denver ranked 30th against the run last season, the Chiefs 28th. Fargas also had that monster game early in the season against the Dolphins, who ranked 32nd (dead last) against the run. He averaged 4.1 yards per carry as a starter, and 3.9 during December. His longest reception was for 17 yards.
So the numbers say that Fargas got fat stats against some very bad run defenses. Now that's not his fault, he did what he should have done against them. But other than decent games against the Titans and Texans, Fargas didn't accomplish much that would be described as overly impressive. We know the system takes average backs and helps them produce above-average numbers, so consider that when addressing Fargas' stats last season.
For example, Lamont Jordan would have finished the season with about 1,200 yards had he started every game. Would we be pining for his return, or would we say "yeah, that was nice, but in this system, we can get a 1,500 yard rusher."
Even Dominic Rhodes was impressive in his late-season 100-yard games against two very tough defenses—Jacksonville's and San Diego's. Yet I doubt most of us would be satisfied with him as a starter. So while Fargas' cumulative numbers look solid, his consistency, game-changing long plays, and pass-catching numbers were sorely lacking and allows us to at least contemplate exploring a better alternative.
What did our eyes tell us? Well, we saw Fargas running hard and making good cuts, getting to the outside often, and running well against some soft defenses.
Unfortunately, we also saw very little ability to make defenders miss, or ability to generate yards after contact. We saw Fargas' upright running style, lack of vision, and lack of wiggle expose himself to numerous highlight-level de-cleater hits. We saw a guy with average to below-average hands who only once had more than three catches in a game. We saw some 15 and 20-yard rushes, but only one run longer than 30 yards all season.
Do we count on Fargas to churn out more 100-yard games next season against the Patriots, Ravens, Jets, Bills, Panthers, Bills, and Bucs? This would remind me of the way we just assumed that our defense would be great last year due to our returning all starters from a "top-eight" defense in 2006. One should always look to improve every area of a team, regardless of what transpired the previous season.
So what's the plan next year? We split the carries at something of a 15-10-5 level between Fargas, Bush, and Rhodes. This assumes that Bush will be the pre-leg break beast we saw at Louisville. But what if he's lost a step or that lateral quick-feet ability that made defenders grasp at the Autumn Wind?
Then he's just an average grinder, nothing too special. So while I like Fargas as much as the next guy, I am not going to pretend that the running back position can not be improved upon. And when you're dealing with a position that will touch the ball 30 times a game, I think we can all agree it's one that needs to be consistently evaluated and improved.
Whether you think McFadden could give us the first great mutli-threat runner since Charlie Garner and post 1,800 all-purpose yards in the Oakland system, or feel that Darren is over-hyped, let's not pretend that we're rock solid at the running back position and would be wasting a pick if Al Davis decides to gamble a little on one of the few draft talents this year that could become a legitimate super star.
Can he stop the run? Of course not. Can a quality run-plugging DT be found in round four or in post-June free agency? Probably a lot more easily than a runner who over the span of three seasons destroyed Georgia, USC, Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, South Carolina, and LSU all at least once.
Again, this isn't to knock Fargas, or to suggest that we shouldn't draft a defensive tackle. Instead my intent is to simply point out that there is room for improvement at the running back position—improvement that would help us score more points, rest the defense longer, and win a few more games.
We were complacent with what we thought was a great highly-ranked defense in 2006. I won't blame Davis if he learned from that mistake and simply drafts the best talent available regardless of position at the four-spot in two weeks.
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5 months ago
Alex,
You're towing the line here or standing on both sides of the fence. You need to make a decision Alex. The improvement you mentioned was made last year and the improvement this upcoming season will be with this being Justin Fargas' & the team's second year in the system, Michael Bush's contribution, Dominic Rhodes not having to go through a 4 game suspension. Speaking of improvement wouldn't it make more sense to improve the areas with the biggest needs instead of loading up at a position that doesn't? The Raiders are in need of a Defensive Tackle and hasn't drafted one in years; that can be corrected in this draft. If a Defensive Tackle is selected in the 1st round the Raiders will have one of the best two in the draft, if not the Raiders will have to a run stopper in the 4th round meaning missing out on three opportunities to fill their biggest need. Another thing when did Darren McFadden "kill" USC? Arkansas played Southern Cal twice over the last three years and lost 70-17 & 50-14? In the 2005 game McFadden had 13 carries for 88 yards & in the 2006 game in Arkansas Darren McFadden had 9 carries for 42 yards. Unless you meant the University of South Carolina? But that would be off base as well seeing as he ran for a career high 219 yards against South Carolina.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fWz8QAYfTw
from 5 months ago
USC + University of South Carolina, not Southern Cal.
from 5 months ago
Well Greg what a surprise. Just so you know Southern Cal was put in there to avoid confusion. There is absolutely nothing you can tell me about USC that I don't know. But thanks for the feedback regardless.
5 months ago
Alex,
You're towing the line here or standing on both sides of the fence. You need to make a decision Alex. The improvement you mentioned was made last year and the improvement this upcoming season will be with this being Justin Fargas' & the team's second year in the system, Michael Bush's contribution, Dominic Rhodes not having to go through a 4 game suspension. Speaking of improvement wouldn't it make more sense to improve the areas with the biggest needs instead of loading up at a position that doesn't? The Raiders are in need of a Defensive Tackle and hasn't drafted one in years; that can be corrected in this draft. If a Defensive Tackle is selected in the 1st round the Raiders will have one of the best two in the draft, if not the Raiders will have to a run stopper in the 4th round meaning missing out on three opportunities to fill their biggest need. Another thing when did Darren McFadden "kill" USC? Arkansas played Southern Cal twice over the last three years and lost 70-17 & 50-14? In the 2005 game McFadden had 13 carries for 88 yards & in the 2006 game in Arkansas Darren McFadden had 9 carries for 42 yards. Unless you meant the University of South Carolina? But that would be off base as well seeing as he ran for a career high 219 yards against South Carolina.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fWz8QAYfTw
5 months ago
I wrote USC and South Carolina, and only meant South Carolina. Some sites list them as USC. My mistake. That said, McFadden's 6 yards per carry average against USC is still impressive considering the defense and the fact they likely focused on shutting him down.
As far as fence-sitting, I'm not advocating drafting McFadden or not drafting him. I think we would improve just the same whether we draft him or Glenn Dorsey. For this article, I simply wanted to state some reasonable logic that would defend the drafting of McFadden, if that's what Al decides to do.
A good question would be "who would you rather have: McFadden, Fargas, and (4th round / post-June 1 cut DT), or Dorsey and Fargas?" Honestly, I'd be very happy with either situation.
from 4 months ago
I know this is very late, but I thought it was a good article Alex. I thought I said that but did not. You did state some reasonable logic. I agree with you stating that you're not advocating drafting McFadden or not drafting him. I'm all for improving the team as well. You raised some very good questions as well.
5 months ago
good article, very good reasoning and information
5 months ago
like the article, well thought out and backed up.
5 months ago
1st round, 4th Pick: Jake Long(If he's still on the board) Russell needs time to throw.
4th round, 5th Pick: Lawrence Jackson, DE (USC)
5 months ago
Interesting way to look at Fargas....shows again, you can have a 1000 yard rusher on your club, and still have a bad record. 4-12, LaMont Jordan had one a few seasons ago.....but unless you get the last 2 yards on a touchdown drive....it means 0 on the scoreboard.
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