Green Bay Packers 2009 Expectations

In 2008, the Packers entered the season as one of two favourites to win the NFC North, along with the Minnesota Vikings.

This made sense: Green Bay was coming off a 13-3 season in which they were the second-highest seed in the NFC and lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants in overtime. The Packers have won their division in seven of the past 14 seasons.

They had one of the league's best offenses and a defense that improved as the season went along, finishing 11th in the league. They had arguably the best defensive backfield and a pass rush in the top half of the league, led by Pro Bowl defensive end Aaron Kampman.

They had Ryan Grant in the backfield, who had gained more rushing yards in the final nine games than anyone other than Ladanian Tomlinson, and one of the deepest receiving corps in the league. They had a kicker that led all rookies in scoring and otherwise capable special teams.

So why were they not consensus favourites? Well, there was the issue of losing future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre.

That is why everything was on Aaron Rodgers. Could he step in and fill the very large shoes of Favre? More to the point, could he do it when there had been bad blood between Favre and General Manager Ted Thompson that spawned a schism between Packers fans, some of whom rooted against Rodgers?

Had we been told that Rodgers would account for over 4000 passing yards, 32 touchdowns (including rushing), and just 16 turnovers (including his three fumbles lost), the expectation would be that they would win at least 10 games.

What happened was quite different. The Packers had as many as five starters on defense on the injury report at any given time, could not stop the run and could not pressure the passer.

Injuries also struck the offensive line, and at times the Packers could not protect Rodgers or open holes for Grant. Furthermore, they failed on two occasions to hit potential game-winning field goals.

In other words, they failed in all phases of the game en route to a 6-10 season.

In the aftermath, they fired multiple coaches, most notably strength and conditioning coach Rock Gullickson and defensive coordinator Bob Sanders. Then they went a step further, scrapping the system entirely and bringing in Dom Capers and the 3-4 defense.

So how will the Packers do in overcoming the obstacle of transitioning to an entirely different defense? And are they closer to the 13-3 team they were in 2007 or the 6-10 team they were in 2008?

They are closer to the 2007 Packers precisely because they will be able to make the transition to the 3-4 by November of the 2009 season. They have the personnel for most of the spots, although pedestrian Brady Poppinga or rookie Clay Matthews will need to handle the outside linebacker spot opposite converted defensive end Aaron Kampman, who not only possesses the skills but played the position in college.

Before that point, their schedule looks pretty easy on paper; they will manage four wins:

1. vs. Bears
2. vs. Bengals
3. @ Rams
4. @ Vikings
5. vs. Lions
6. @ Browns

The 3-4 will not help them against the run, but being healthy will. However, that new defense is going to help a pass rush that dropped from 13th to 25th in the league, and the result will be a team that can make even more big plays and get off the field.

They will need to have things in order by the end of the season, as their schedule after Thanksgiving is brutal:

1. vs. Ravens
2. @ Bears
3. @ Steelers
4. vs. Seahawks
5. @ Cardinals

The Packers will win only two of those games, but should win four in November to finish 10-6, making things very close in the NFC North, where there are two teams that are major obstacles for Green Bay's playoff hopes.

The Bears were 9-7 last year and improved at quarterback, but still lack receivers for him to throw to. The Vikings, 10-6, still lack a quarterback (unless Favre does play for them, and I put the odds of that at about even), lost Darren Sharper, and will be without either Pro Bowl defensive tackle for four games.

Anything could happen.

The unknown of Favre heightens the suspense, not just of whether he will play but how well he will do. He is coming off a bad five game stretch in which he was likely hampered his play.

Will he be healthy? Will his desire to stick it to the Packers be a boon or a curse when he faces them? What about his drive in the other games?

The Vikings have all the other tools to win the division, and a quarterback makes them legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Will being without the Williamses at tackle have them in too big a hole, even if Brett does sign with them?

Finally, the Packers have some weaknesses on the offensive line. Left tackle Chad Clifton is coming off a tough year in which he was battling minor injuries. Right tackle Mark Tauscher will not be re-signed because of the injury suffered late last season, and his position will likely be filled by either fourth-year veteran Tony Moll or fourth-round pick T.J. Lang.

But remember, Tauscher was drafted in the seventh round and was able to start before the end of his rookie campaign. And with the injury struggles on the line last season, Moll gained valuable playing experience; sans those injuries, the line should be at least as good as it was last season.

So the Packers have three potential variables that could derail the 2009 campaign: OLB, OT, and competition from a number of teams. If any of those obstacles is greater than expected, they are likely to miss the playoffs.

Likewise, having injury problems even close to what were suffered in 2008 will make for another long season.

Then again, if someone steps up on the offensive line (fullback and tight end play could stand to improve, as well) and/or the team handles the transition to the 3-4 well, with either Matthews or Poppinga even playing solidly at OLB, this team has a chance to go deep into the playoffs.