Dallas Mavericks Playoff Roundtable: Round Two

Well here we are. The Mavericks have prevailed over the hated Spurs, and look to take another step in what is proving to be an unpredictable postseason.

Beat hated rivals? Check. Step two? Beat the team that has beaten you four times, sometimes by a lot, sometimes by a little.

The Nuggets/Mavs matchup presents a few interesting....uh....nuggets.

'Melo is out of the first round for the first time ever. The Mavs are out of the first round for the first time since their run to the Finals.

Read through some of our past roundtables, and many of us said we would be happy with a first-round victory. Well, we got that, and we're not ready to turn out the lights just yet.

1. 1. Do you think the Mavs' success over the Spurs speaks more to their talent, or the Spurs faults?

Janet Kessler: I believe both.  The Spurs defense completely collapsed, to the point Finley ended up one on one with Dirk.  And we knew who was gonna win that match-up.  I was very surprise the Spurs went away from doubling Dirk and Terry, it was working for them.  It was forcing the Mavs to win as a team, not by it's top-star.
 
I like seeing Dirk looking relaxed with the double team.  He knows he can help the Mavs in other ways, just be patient and don't force anything.
 
Right now, the Mavs are a team any coach in the league would dream of having.  It took them nearly all of the 82 regular season games, to start peaking.  To quote coach Carlisle, "they are becoming dangerous". 
 
Too bad Charles Barkley and his idiot co-hosts, were too busy talking about where the Spurs were gonna spend their summer vacation, to take notice.

Waleed Ershad: I break down the statistics like this:
Mavs talent - 60%
Spurs faults - 40%

The Mavs played extremely well against SA and did it without a lot of help from their leading scorers Dirk and JET.  This speaks volumes about the depth and talent the Mavs have developed over this year.  Also, it was impressive how the Mavs did not let Mason, Bonner, Finely, Hill, and everyone not named Parker and Duncan to get it going.  That might have been because of Mavs defense or the playoff pressure on those young players.

But at the same time we have to recognize that the Spurs are not the same defensive team.  Also, Duncan looked he was getting rusty.  Of course, they did not have Ginobili as well.  And the rest of the Spurs were not that offensively consistent and the playoff pressure got to them.

Alex McVeigh: Ginobili left a huge hole in the Spurs' offense, but I think he would have taken more of Parker's points away, rather than adding many of his own. Parker did about as much damage as a guard can do, and while Manu probably would have hit some of those threes, he would have pushed either Mason or Bowen out of the starting lineup, which could have let Terry have a bigger series.

I think the series came down to depth, and when the Spurs were able to shut down the Mavs, the role players hurt them, and the same couldn't be said about the Spurs.

The Spurs executed their game plan on defense, which is usually their strength, and the Mavs still beat them, in five, including two in San Antonio. That's not easy to do no matter who you are.

I think the series would have gone a little longer, but I think the Mavs could have pulled it out.

Robert Allred: I think that, more than anything, it was just a good matchup for the Mavs. These teams have beaten up on each other for years now. In any given game, either one can beat the other. That is precisely why I had been hoping for a Spurs first round for months, and was elated when it came to be.

Late in the season, I thought the Mavs needed to play in a series against a rival, because rivalries can always go either way, and I thought that was the only prayer they had of getting out of the first round. When the Mavs started playing better and the Spurs got worse due to injury (and lets face it, old age), that just sweetened the pot for me.

I think this would have been a much closer (and more stressful) series had Ginobili been healthy, but I still don't want to discount the play of the Mavericks. They have been a much improved team over the past several weeks.

2. Which matchup do you think is more important: Jason Kidd vs. Chauncey Billups, or Josh Howard vs. Carmelo Anthony?

Janet: The match-up at the point, two old school point guards having it out.  Both are good passers, both are good defenders, and both can score.  Controlling the tempo of the game will be a factor.
 
I looked over the box score, for the four regular season games.  Josh only appeared in two games.  The one on Nov. 07. he played 27 minutes, and got hurt.  The one on Dec.15, he came off the bench for 14 minutes.  So Josh was a bit of a non-factor in the regular season.  Now with his ankle managed better,  let's see if Josh can repeat his performance against the Spurs, against the Nuggets.
 
Another factor, in the four games against the Nuggets, the Mavs used four different lineups.  I think we will see the familiar line-up, with Antoine Wright at 2-guard. 
 
The battle of the bench points is one to keep an eye on.  Denver has a deep bench, they out scored ours 3-1, over the regular season. J.R. Smith had two game were he went off for 20+ points.  Birdman Chris Andersen is another dangerous player.  Hopefully our young hungry bench, will rise to the challenge like they did against San Antonio.

Waleed: J-Ho vs. Melo.  It would've been great to see J-Ho at full strength go against Melo and perhaps make himself a bigger name in the '03 draft.  But it looks like J-Ho's iffy ankle hasn't really slowed him down so maybe we can still get that.

J-Ho will be relied on heavily to check Melo. Although I think Wright will start on Melo, J-Ho will be the one in crunch time om him.  Also, Melo might be a little bit too strong for Wright.  Maybe we'll see some Kidd on Melo?

Alex: In terms of scoring, it has to be Howard vs. Anthony. Anthony needs to be checked if the Mavs are going to win, and most of that will have to come from Howard or Wright.

J.R. Smith, Linas Kleiza, and Anthony Carter are a step above Bonner, Oberto, George Hill and others offensively, they are capable of winning a game themselves, but Anthony is going to be the main offender.

Anthony will probably get a lot of the offense to run through him, just to try and capitalize on Howard's ankle.

I'd like to see Singleton get some turns on Anthony, he has the size to cause him trouble, though I'm not sure that his defense is anything to write home about.

Robert: With all the talk coming out of Denver about how Chauncey has completely turned this team around, I have got to go with the Kidd-Chauncey matchup.

We cannot let Billups take over this series.

3. Who do you think will win those matchups and why?

Janet: If Kidd and Billups were held to less than 10 points a piece, that would be in the Mavs favor.  We don't expect Kidd to score alot, if Billups is kept in check we will be fine.
 
Melo won the matchup vs. Josh in the regular season, because Josh was a no-show.  Josh has the speed to beat Melo.  Just as long as Josh drives the lanes, and doesn't settle for jump shots, we will be fine.
 
Mind you Melo is not Micheal Finley.  Melo is gonna make Josh work.  Josh has to remember, and that's Kidd's job to remind him, to give up the ball if he in trouble.  We need Josh to be "on", to stretch the defense off of Dirk and Terry.
 
We need our bench to remain hot, like they were against the Spurs.  We have to win the battle of the benches.

Waleed: I think Kidd will do a great job on Billups if he ends up guarding him.  I really don't know what starting line up will be used and who will guard who in this series.  Rick Carlisle has too much ingenuity.

I would go Kidd/Wright/Howard/Nowitzki/

Dampier with Kidd on Billups, Wright on Melo, Howard on Jones, Nowitzki on Martin, and Damp on Nene.

Depending on how well Melo is playing, Howard and Wright can flip-flop on Melo and Jones/Smith.

Alex: I think Billups shoulders more responsibility for the Nuggets, so he is more likely to falter. Billups needs to get points, he only scored less than 5 six times, the Nuggets were 5-1 in those games, including one against Dallas

The Mavs are 18-9 when Kidd scores 5 or less, meaning they don't need Kidd to be a scorer, just hit an open three or two.

Billups has to balance his scoring wth distribution to people like J.R. Smith and 'Melo, which he has been doing successfully, but with so many responsibilities, the Mavericks should be able to mess some of them up.

Plus I think Billups is most effective in the halfcourt set, while Kidd is very good on the fast break and the halfcourt, so I think he has more flexibility. His greatest flaw is his poor defense against quick PGs, and Billups isn't a speedster.

With Howard vs. Anthony, I think Anthony will take it. Howard doesn't have the huge advantage in terms of athleticism like he did with the Spurs.

Anthony needs to be their bulk scorer though, the Mavs seem to have more weapons, so they should be able to overcome good performances by Anthony, like they did with Parker.

Robert: I think that Chauncey wins the matchup against Kidd, but I think the Howard-Carmelo matchup could go either way.

J-Ho is weird for me, because I think that he has potential to be one of the great players in this league, but I am not always convinced that he wants to be. If he continues to play with the same motor and emotion that he had in the Spurs series, however, I think this matchup will be a good one.

With Chauncey being Chauncey, and Dirk being Dirk, this series could come down to who wins the Howard and Carmelo matchup.

4. Kenyon Martin's stifling defense on David West is one of the main reasons that the Hornets were ousted in five. Do you think he can continue to have the same success on Dirk?

Janet: NO!  Dirk's worst game this season against Denver, was 23 points on Nov. 07.  Josh had 11 points that night also.  In the other three games, Dirk scored 27, 44, and 26.  The 44 point outing was without Josh in the game. 
 
At this point in time, Dirk will be happy to pass to his team-mates, if he can not get clean looks for shots. 

Waleed: Kenyon Martin's defense does worry me.  But I know Dirk is not like many other PFs in the league and will get his shot off and be effective as long as a double team doesn't come.  In that case, others will have to step up.

Alex: I was worried, until I saw the stats. Like Janet said, Dirk's has pretty good scoring nights against the Nuggs, and he's also rebounded in double digits all four games.

I think Martin will get physical with Dirk, but I think he can handle it. One of the things the Nuggets did well against the Hornets is not have to double team. I think they'll have to do that with the Mavs, because that's usually the only way to slow down Dirk and Terry.

If the Mavs are able to force double teams, that changes the whole complexion of the defense that they threw out there against the Hornets.

Robert: I think Dirk will be a little bit (actually, a lot-a-bit) of a stiffer defensive challenge than David West was, so in short, no.

K-Mart, although still a solid player, is not what he once was. He will not shut down Dirk without some help.

If he does get some help in shutting down Dirk, then... (question five)

5. Do you think the Mavs can survive another series where Dirk and JET don't dominate almost every game?

Janet: They can if Josh and the role players show up.  That's how we beat the Spurs. 
 
Carlisle has our bench players primed and ready.  They know there is not enough minutes to go around.  Everybody on the bench has to be ready, to make the most of the few minutes they get. 
 
 Just because Hollins has a rock-solid game one night, doesn't mean he get more minutes the next.  Carlisle has to play to the match-ups, and he had shown very capable of it. 

Waleed: No.  Unfortunately, Denver is a little bit too sound on defense that San Antonio.  Either Dirk or Jet will have to put up 25+ with the other putting up 15+ every night in order for a win.  But it wouldn't surprise me if J-Ho, Kidd, Barea, Bass, and the other guys won a game or two by themselves.

Alex: It's possible but the numbers wouldn't suggest it. I think the center position needs to come up big, unlike when they needed all six fouls from Damp and Hollins to combat Duncan, Nene doesn't present that kind of a threat.

JET and Dirk don't need to average 20 and 30 respectively, but they can't be taken out most games like they did this series.

Fortunately, the numbers also suggest that Dirk and JET will heat up again, just in time.

Robert: Yes, if the role players continue to play the way they did in the Spurs series.

If the Nuggets are going to make it their goal to take Dirk and JET completely out of the game, that is fine, but the other guys need to step up and make them pay for that.

Old Mavs teams didn't do that. It was either Dirk carrying the team on his back and getting them a win, or the Mavs fall on their face and go home with their tail between their legs.

Howard has been key lately, probably playing the best basketball of his career. Kidd has been mister consistent, and the help off the bench from guys like Barea, Bass, Wright, and even Hollins has been absolutely huge.

If these guys can continue to make the opposing team pay, then the Mavs can afford to not have Dirk and JET dominate in every game.

All that being said, I still think it will take at least one or two monster games from Dirk and/or Jet if we want to win this series.

6. Your pick?

Janet: Dallas gained a lot of confidence against the Spurs.  Like in San Antonio, Dallas needs to draw first blood, and get a win on the road. 
 
Denver is healthier and more athletic, than the Spurs.  Dallas lost all four games to Denver,  in the regular season.  I think we can easily say the Mavs are not that same team. 
 
Dallas margin of loss to Denver in the regular season, was close.  Two games games by two, one game by three, the other one by ten. 
 
The ten point loss was on  Dec. 15, in Dallas.  Josh came off the bench for 14 minutes, and scored seven points.
 
The main thing to remember the Mavs of the regular season, and the Mavs that beat the Spurs in Five, are two different teams.
 
I believe our guys can meet the challenge, against Denver.  It gonna be more of a grind it out game.  I say Dallas in seven.

Waleed: Mavs in 6.  Yeah you heard it here first.

Alex: Judging from how the regular season series went, we could be in for a doozy. The Nuggets won one game by 10, but the other three were by two, two and three points.

Hopefully the Mavericks will get a few of those close ones to go their way, and can stretch the series. I don't think Denver has a particularly strong homecourt advantage, so if the Mavs can steal one of the first two, they should be on good shape.

On a side note, if you enjoyed my slide show, please feel free to contact me about funding another trip to the American Airlines Center. It's hard work, but I would be willing to make the sacrifice.

Mavs in 6.

Robert: My heart tells me that the Mavs pull out another series and keep our title hopes alive, but my gut tells me that the Nuggets win in six or seven. I'll still be watching every game, however, and will be praying that my heart is smarter than my gut!

(The good news is that my heart is a little closer to my brain than my gut, so maybe it has better information?)