Erick Blasco's Western Conference Second Round Preview

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (5) Houston Rockets

Of all the second-round matchups in this year's NBA Playoffs, this one is the most tantalizing. L.A.’s athleticism and skill versus Houston’s discipline and brawn makes for quite the clash, and the two teams are clearly the best in the West.

The series will be determined by the answers to a number of crucial questions:

Will Kobe Bryant get the best of Houston’s tag-team defensive duo of Shane Battier and Ron Artest?

Depending on Kobe’s mindset, yes.

If Kobe attempts to force-feed his ego and fire up any manner of wild, contested jump shots, then the Lakers offense will become entirely one-dimensional and inefficient. It’s hard to imagine Kobe having more than one game like Game Four against the Jazz, in which everything he threw up went in.

Kobe did a great job of trusting the triangle against Houston over the regular season, controlling games by passing, selectively picking his spots to attack Battier’s attempts to force him left, using brush screens to create space when shooting against Battier going left, and psychologically destroying Artest’s desire to get the best of him mano-y-mano.

And with a game on the line, Kobe’s infinite range leaves him a threat against any defender.

Will Yao Ming be able to decimate the Lakers in the paint?

Because of the Lakers' ability to double team from the baseline, any time Yao puts the ball down to dribble will be an adventure.

And even if Andrew Bynum still lacks the awareness to play adequate defense against complicated offenses, he should be strong enough to bump and bang Yao out of premium position in the post.

Which team’s point guards will play better?

While Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry are tough and talented, neither possesses an elite handle or veteran postseason-playmaking experience. The tenacity of Derek Fisher should shut down Houston’s mighty mites and induce several careless turnovers.

Meanwhile, Fisher is a more reliable shooter, and Shannon Brown is playing with total confidence right now.

Will Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum wear down Houston?

Because his post moves are crude and tentative coming back from injury, Bynum should be a non-factor against Yao’s massive size.

And even Gasol, who has a huge quickness advantage over Yao, has trouble getting around the Ming’s gargantuan frame.

However, the times when Luis Scola is latched onto Gasol, the "Gas Man" has been too long and too quick for Scola to handle.

Which Lamar Odom will show up?

If Odom is guarded by Scola, Chuck Hayes, or Carl Landry, the versatile dynamo that ruptured Utah’s front line will return for the Houston series. But against Battier and Artest, Odom would revert to the passive spectator that plays disassociated with the rest of the offense.

Who will Houston turn to in the clutch?

Ron Artest has frequently made awful decisions down the stretch of big games, and it’s hard to believe this series will be an exception. However, since the Rockets have all sorts of trouble getting the ball to Yao in the game, Artest will have to be Houston’s sole offensive weapon—and that could spell doom for either team.

Do the Lakers have the killer instinct to put away the Rockets, or do the Rockets have the talent to keep up with the Lakers?

If the Rockets can count on anything, it’s that the Lakers will take their foot off the gas pedal and abort their offense if they jump out to a big lead.

Still, it’s hard to imagine the Rockets having the firepower to outscore the Lakers in the second half unless the Houston defense plays exceptionally well.

The Rockets have too much trouble generating easy points, and the Lakers have too many weapons.

Prediction

The Lakers will ride a number of second half surges to douse the Rockets. Houston will have trouble getting into their offense, and Kobe will outshine Artest. Lakers in 6.

(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks

Both of these squads are playing their best basketball of the season, setting up an explosive confrontation between two high-octane offenses.

Carmelo Anthony is much too strong for Josh Howard; whether by driving from the wing or posting up, Anthony should be able to call his number offensively, especially as Dallas doesn’t have the coordination to help and recover to Denver’s numerous three-point shooters. Of course, Anthony won’t be able to slow Howard down much on the other end, but the assumption is that Melo will make more plays over the course of the series than J-Ho will.

Chauncey Billups will feed teammates until they need him to take over the offense. However, unlike Chris Paul, who lacks the size to deal with Billups’ muscle, and who often overplays entry passing lanes, allowing pull-up threes, Jason Kidd is built to defend Billups. He’s strong enough to deal with Billups’ drives and smart enough to know when to help and when to stay attached to Billups’ hip.

Besides that, Kidd’s experienced a renaissance and is currently flourishing as a three-point shooter. That'll punish Billups when he’s forced to help.

Antoine Wright is strong, but he lacks the athleticism to deny Denver’s scorers. Meanwhile, the Nuggets' own stopper, Dahntay Jones, has the toughness, the speed, and the will to pick a man and stick to him like a leech, which is why Denver has a better chance of slowing down Dallas’ offense and not vice versa.

When Kenyon Martin is focused, he can compete smart enough to deny what his opponent wants to do—and in the case of Dirk Nowitzki, that's pull or spin left, then shoot. However, K-Mart often tucks his tail between his legs on the road or if off to a bad start.

Of course, given Dirk’s own fragile makeup, it’s imperative for each to have success early. Whoever gets off to a bad start might check himself out mentally for an entire game.

Erick Dampier is playing outstanding defensive basketball, rebounding, blocking shots, and avoiding foul trouble. If he can corral Nene’s quick post moves and drives, then the Mavs will only have to worry about Denver’s perimeter offense.

Jason Terry can light it up off the bench, but so can J.R. Smith. The Nuggets can answer Terry with Jones’ defense, while the Mavs’ counter for Smith is Smith’s own penchant for making awful decisions.

Brandon Bass can bounce and score both at the basket and with a midrange jumper. Since Chris Anderson is often abandoning his man to block shots, Bass should have a field day from 15 feet.

And if Anderson is checking Nowitzki, the Mavs will either have open invitations to the basket, or Dirk will feast on a buffet of midrange jump shots, depending on whether or not Anderson is instructed to sell out for blocks or stick to Dirk.

Anthony Carter is too strong for J.J. Barea, but Barea is too quick for him. Since Barea is also a better finisher and playmaker, give him the edge.

The Mavs don’t have a bench player to match up with Linas Kleiza, and the Nuggets reserves in general have more scorers than their Dallas counterparts.

Prediction

This is the kind of series that the most efficient scoring team will win. Will Carmelo be able to bully the Mavs and put up a parade of points, or will Dirk provide the extra scores to give the Mavs the edge?

With Billups such a calming influence on Denver’s offense, expect Carmelo to continue to shine. May the most explosive offense win. Nuggets in 6.