Beware the Fantasy Guru

(Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Of the major fantasy sports out there, the fastest growing is fantasy baseball. It's nearly caught up with fantasy football in total participants and on some servers has become the most popular game.

As the number of players rises, so too rises the demand for fantasy advice. As the need for advice rises, the number of self-proclaimed experts or gurus goes up proportionally.

The major problem with this situation, of course, is that baseball is incredibly complex, making it a lot easier to seem wise, but dispense really bad advice.

One of the major factors is that the baseball season is really long—longer than almost any other season (European football's August-to-May is longer in months, but with about one-tenth the number of games).

Six bad games from the wide receiver you thought was your best in fantasy football is season-altering; six bad games from your fantasy ace can make an owner sweat, but shouldn't be an automatic drop.

I don't claim to be a fantasy guru. While I would have won all of my leagues last year if Carl Crawford and Orlando Hudson had been healthy, in the end, I didn't.

What I do claim to be is a baseball guy, which is ultimately what wins leagues. So, with that caveat in mind, here are some guys the "experts" are staying away from that may be good buy low candidates. 

Justin Verlander (SP, Tigers)

Verlander killed owners in 2008. CBS had him ranked as the sixth best starter, ahead of horses like Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, and Roy Oswalt. He went 11-17 with an ERA of 4.84 and a WHIP of 1.40, giving him nowhere near the value owners had hoped for.

With that hesitancy in mind, Verlander fell to 43rd among starters, near Ryan Dempster and rookie Max Scherzer.

Verlander hasn't started off terribly well, logging just 21 innings in four starts with an ERA of exactly 9.00. Still he has 25 strikeouts and shut down a very potent Texas lineup over five innings, which shows that he has some value left.

Fantasy man AJ Mass at ESPN told chatters he wouldn't touch Verlander with a 10-foot pole right now, to which I'd say "Great! More for me!"

According to Dave Cameron of USS Mariner, FanGraphs, and the Wall Street Journal, Verlander is back to 2006 form.

Hyperbole aside, Cameron notes that Verlander's fastball is back up to 2006 levels after having taken a two MPH drop off the last two seasons. His BABIP is unbelievably high, now sitting at .412, which won't last.

Now is probably the best possible time to find out who drafted Verlander and make them an offer. He's a solid bounceback candidate, and I expect he'll do it sooner rather than later.

One last reason I like Verlander is the offensive support he's likely to get. The Tigers have scored the sixth most runs in baseball so far this year, which means even if Verlander isn't on his game, he may still net you a win.

Chasing wins is generally a bad idea in fantasy, but if you're looking for that one reason to keep Justin around, a win here and there may not be a bad one.

Francisco Liriano (SP, Twins)

Unlike Verlander, Liriano has almost no shot of returning to his 2006 form; Tommy John surgery doesn't usually lead to a K-rate greater than 13, sadly.

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