Chicago White Sox: Odds That Each 25-Man Roster Player Will Stay for 2014

The Chicago White Sox are not averse to a little turnover on the 25-man roster. It actually seems to be an annual occurrence that the White Sox part ways with at least one veteran who was a long-time fan favorite.

In 2011, it was Mark Buehrle. Last year, A.J. Pierzynski bid the White Sox a fond farewell.

Will longtime captain Paul Konerko be this offseason’s veteran departure?

What about the rest of the active roster?

Let’s look at the wholly unscientific, completely arbitrary and unsubstantiated odds that each player will be on the 25-man roster in 2014.

Contract and productivity factors will be weighed—as well as potential midseason trade possibilities—to determine the probabilities.

Each player will be grouped based on his position, starting with the pitching staff.

*Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Contract information provided by Cots Baseball Contracts.

John Danks-LHP

2013 contract status: $14.25 million, signed through 2016

2014 25-man roster odds: 100 percent

John Danks is not going anywhere—and not because he is too valuable to the pitching staff.

Danks has an annual salary that makes him far too pricey for another team. Unless, of course, the White Sox assume a substantial amount of his contract and ask for a low-ceiling Single-A prospect in return.

It is not that he doesn’t have a place in a five-man rotation. Danks has the potential to be a solid No. 4—or a serviceable No. 3—for any team, but his contract and injury history renders him immovable.

Expect to see the Austin, Texas native to be in a White Sox uniform in 2014 and beyond.

Jake Peavy-RHP

2013 contract status: $14.5 million, signed through 2014

2014 25-man roster odds: 100 percent

Not only will Jake Peavy—fresh off a two-year, $29 million contract extension—be on the roster next season, he has to be.

He is a leader both on the field and in the clubhouse. Oh, he can pitch, too.

White Sox general manager Rick Hahn has made it clear that pitching and defense will be his main motivator while assembling a 25-man roster (via Scott Merkin, MLB.com).

That makes Peavy invaluable.

While his antics on the mound can be a bit over the top, competitors like him do not come around often.

Gavin Floyd-RHP

2013 contract status: $9.5 million, signed through 2013

2014 25-man roster odds: 1.5 percent

Gavin Floyd may not make it through the rest of 2013 on the South Side.

He is a legitimate back-of-the-rotation starter with real trade value.

Moving him midseason would shed payroll and the White Sox could, more than likely, get at least one prospect with real value in return.

Shedding payroll may not seem to be a contributing factor since he is in his option year. It could be, though. Trading Floyd may allow the White Sox to acquire a player with more than one year remaining on his contract.

The White Sox also have some quality arms in the minor leagues ready to ascend to the majors. Scott Snodgress, Eric Johnson and Nestor Molina are just a few of them.

Why 1.5 percent? Well, if Floyd wins the 2013 Cy Young award, he will be back in 2014. But what are the odds of that happening?

Chris Sale-LHP

2013 contract status: $850,000, signed through 2017 with club options for 2018 and ’19 ($1 million buyout)

2014 25-man roster odds: 100 percent

Not sure that anything needs to be written here.

Chris Sale is the next face of the White Sox—if he is not already.

A scenario does not exist that is even absurdly plausible by which Sale is not on the White Sox in 2014.

If the term 110 percent was not abhorrent, it would be used here. Alliteration aside, the lanky lefty can lob the leather and is here to stay.

Addison Reed, Jose Quintana, Nate Jones, Donnie Veal and Hector Santiago

2013 contract statuses: $520,000 or less, will not reach free agency until 2018, at the earliest

2014 25-man roster odds: 100 percent

Addison Reed, Jose Quintana, Nate Jones, Donnie Veal and Hector Santiago—along with Sale—are the future of the White Sox pitching staff.

Each of them has proven that he is worth the investment and all have very bright futures.

Reed—unless he fails miserably—will be the closer for years to come.

Jones and Veal will be the primary setup men as early as next season. Jones may be asked to fill that role this season if Jesse Crain finds himself on the disabled list.

Quintana, currently in the starting rotation, and Santiago, who should be, will help anchor the staff for years to come. If any one of the starting pitchers goes down this season, Santiago figures to be the first one to take his spot.

It would be a shock if any one of them is not on the 25-man roster next year.

Dylan Axelrod-RHP

2013 contract status: $493,000, signed through 2013

2014 25-man roster odds: 50 percent

Dylan Axelrod is a curious case.

He can start or work in long relief and recently won the No. 5 spot in manager Robin Ventura’s rotation after John Danks went on the DL.

That said, there are a bevy of options to replace him currently in the minor leagues.

Axelrod could pitch so well that he becomes indispensable. He could also perform so poorly that he is sent down and replaced before July.

Like others who have found moderate success in the big leagues, his future is entirely undecided.

One factor that is on his side is that he is not eligible for arbitration until after the 2015 season.

Matt Lindstrom-RHP

2013 contract status: $2.8 million, signed through 2013 with a $4 million club option for 2014 ($500,000 buyout)

2014 25-man roster odds: 50 percent

Matt Lindstrom, who signed with the White Sox in January, may fall victim to payroll restrictions as well as minor league competition.

The decision will likely rest in how effective he is this season.

If Lindstrom can use his fastball to dominate American League hitters, his value to the White Sox could be great enough for Hahn to exercise his option.

If he is mediocre this year, expect the Sox to buy out his contract and go young.

Jesse Crain-RHP

2013 contract status: $4.5 million, signed through 2013

2104 25-man roster odds: 23.15 percent

Much like Lindstrom, Jesse Crain will most likely not be in a White Sox uniform next year.

There are multiple options in the minors to take his place on the 25-man roster. Brian Omogrosso and Ramon Troncoso are just two of the right-handed relievers who are capable of replacing Crain.

Make no mistake, Crain can still pitch. He appeared in 51 games in 2012 and finished with a 2.44 ERA. He is just too pricey.

Crain will find the open market this offseason to be very rewarding.

Matt Thornton-LHP

2013 contract status: $5.5 million, signed through 2013 with a $6 million 2014 club option ($1 million buyout)

2014 25-man roster odds: 16 percent

The White Sox are almost certain to buyout Matt Thornton’s contract.

He is too expensive for a guy who consistently falters during clutch situations. Last season Thornton had a .292 BAA with two outs and runners in scoring position. He also had a .283 BAA when the game was within one run.

Never mind the fact that he lost 10 games last year; his situational statistics do not merit $6 million.

To be sure, Thornton has value in the bullpen, but has priced himself off the White Sox.

That is, unless he is willing to take far less money and sign an extension at the end of the season.

Adam Dunn-DH/1B

2013 contract status: $14 million, signed through 2014

2014 25-man roster odds: 100 percent

Adam Dunn is an enigma.

On one hand, Dunn is more than capable of hitting 40 home runs and driving in 100 runs. On the other hand, he can strike out 220 times and hit below the Mendoza line.

Now, it would seem that more than a few teams would be willing to have a player with Dunn’s skill set on their roster, but not for $14 million.

His bloated contract will prevent the White Sox from moving him at the non-waiver trade deadline this year, or in the offseason.

Paul Konerko-1B/DH

2013 contract status: $13.5 million, signed through 2013

2014 25-man roster odds: 6.0 percent

Why six percent? Well there is always a chance, but Paul Konerko is probably playing his last season with the White Sox.

There is his health to consider. He has a troublesome wrist that has caused him to miss time each of the last two seasons. And even though he had surgery to correct the issue, there is no guarantee that it will not resurface.

There is also his defense to consider. Perhaps due to his advancing age and decreased mobility, Konerko’s defensive metrics (chances, putouts and assists) have decreased each of the last three seasons.

Even if he finishes this season with a .300 average and hits 30 home runs, Konerko will find a home elsewhere in 2014.

One other thing to consider: Dayan Viciedo appears to be the first baseman of the future for the White Sox (via ESPN.com).

Alexei Ramirez-SS

2013 contract status: $7 million, signed through 2015 with a 2016 club option

2014 25-man roster odds: 74.25 percent

Alexei Ramirez could be traded, but probably won't be.

Ramirez’s defense is above average and he should have at least one Gold Glove award on his resume.

And even though Ramirez slipped with the batting average and power numbers in 2013, he still managed to drive in 73 runs and score 59 times.

He has the skill set to stay with the White Sox, but there are replacements in the minors. Tyler Saladino and Carlos Sanchez are both capable of replacing Ramirez.

While Saladino is by no means the hitter Ramirez is, if a worthwhile deal is presented, Hahn could pull the trigger.

Jeff Keppinger-3B/2B

2013 contract status: $3.5 million, signed through 2015

2014 25-man roster odds: 100 percent

The most expensive free-agent addition this past offseason, Jeff Keppinger will be around when the 2014 season kicks off.

Keppinger’s specific skill set—high OBP and ability to make regular contact as the No. 2 hitter—will keep him on the White Sox for the duration of his contract. His deal is also modest when compared to other third basemen.

He is a plus at the plate and on the ledger. The will only be one question. What position will he play?

Will he still be the everyday third baseman, or make the move to second?

It is not out of the realm of possibility that Keppinger mans the keystone position on Opening Day next year because of the uncertain future of the next guy on the list.

Gordon Beckham-2B

2013 contract status: $2.975 million, signed through 2013

2014 25-man roster odds: 10 percent

Gordon Beckham is playing for his job with the White Sox. Three straight seasons of offensive futility have made it that way.

His contract does not help.

Beckham recently avoided arbitration by signing a one-year deal. When the arbitration process is underway next year, he could be in line for an annual salary of around $5 million. That is sure to be out of the budget for the White Sox.

There are also options to replace Beckham.

Either Keppinger or Carlos Sanchez could find themselves at second next season.

The only way Beckham sticks around is if he hits .275 this year and knocks out 25 home runs. The odds of that happening are quite slim.

Angel Sanchez-IF

2013 contract status: $505,000, signed through 2013

2014 25-man roster odds: 30 percent

It would seem that Angel Sanchez, a Rule 5 pick from the Los Angeles Angels, will be on the South Side for the remainder of the 2013 season.

His status for 2014 is less certain. Backup infielders do not generally have a lot of staying power, and Sanchez has not been viewed as a long-term option.

That said, he may surprise most of us and outperform expectations. If he can do that, he may earn himself another season with the White Sox.

Conor Gillaspie-1B/3B

2013 contract status: $490,500, signed through 2013.

2014 25-man roster odds: 50 percent

Conor Gillaspie’s stock has fallen a bit since he got off to a torrid start during spring training.

He did well enough to make the White Sox, though, and benefits from hitting left-handed. He can also play multiple positions—first, third and in the outfield—so he has inherent value.

Unfortunately, a .224 average will not do on an offensively challenged team such as the White Sox.

Hahn could end the experiment quickly, replacing Gillaspie with any number of minor leaguers.

If he can swing a .260 average over the course of 150-175 plate appearances, however, Gillaspie will likely find himself back next season.

Dayan Viciedo-LF

2013 contract status: $2.8 million, signed through 2013

2104 25-man roster odds: 100 percent

Dayan Viciedo will be with the White Sox for years to come.

Viciedo is one of the premier young hitters in baseball, and the White Sox have big plans for him.

As was mentioned earlier, Hahn has left no doubt that he is more than willing to move Viciedo to first base. With various options to replace him currently in the minor leagues, the move is likely.

Expect the current left fielder to sign a multi-year contract sooner, rather than later.

Alex Rios-RF

2013 contract status: $12.5 million, signed through 2014

2104 25-man roster odds: 95 percent

It would take quite the package of prospects to pry Alex Rios away from the White Sox at the non-waiver trade deadline this year.

Why?

Well, first off, Rios can play baseball at an incredibly high level. As evidenced in 2013, a .300 average, 25 home runs, 90 RBI and 20 stolen bases is not out of the question for the former Blue Jay.

He is also dirt cheap. Somehow, $12.5 million has turned into a bargain for a five-tool outfielder.

If he can follow up on last season’s successes, Rios will finally earn his contract—and then some.

It will take a lot for Rios to be in another uniform in 2014.

Alejandro De Aza-CF

2013 contract status: $2.075 million, signed through 2013

2014 25-man roster odds: 40 percent

Alejandro De Aza may be playing his final season with the Pale Hose, and it is not for a lack of talent.

He has performed admirably as a left-handed hitting leadoff man. The White Sox simply have too many young outfielders in the minor leagues.

Jared Mitchell and Courtney Hawkins are both in line to replace De Aza.

Mitchell would seem to have the inside track based on his recent performance, but Hawkins is also rising fast through the ranks.

It stands to reason that Hahn would have locked De Aza in long-term if he were in the plans moving forward.

Dewayne Wise-OF

2013 contract status: $700,000, signed through 2013

2014 25-man roster odds: Zero

Dewayne Wise may not make it to the All-Star break.

The left-handed-hitting fourth outfielder has value right now, but that can change quickly depending on his production.

If Wise fails to capitalize on his opportunities early, the White Sox may turn to Jordan Danks. Danks, who also hits left-handed, is a better defender and has a bit more speed on the basepaths.

Wise needs to impress early to remain on the active roster.

Tyler Flowers-C

2013 contract status: $510,000, signed through 2013

2014 25-man roster odds: 60 percent

Tyler Flowers controls his own destiny.

Tabbed this offseason as A.J. Pierzynski’s replacement, Flowers is being given every opportunity to prove he is up to the task.

His defense is not in question. Nor is ability to call a game and handle a young pitching staff.

Flowers must deliver at the dish to have staying power. If he does not, Josh Phegley and Bryan Anderson are only a call away.

Unless Flowers is an absolute disaster this year, though, he will be back.

Hector Gimenez-C

2013 contract status: $493,000, signed through 2013

2014 25-man roster odds: 11 percent

Hector Gimenez is a journeyman backstop who needs to thoroughly impress the White Sox brass if he hopes to be on the team next year.

He can switch-hit and looked good this spring, which is a bonus, but is not fleet of foot and has found limited success at the major league level.

Gimenez did impress in 11 at-bats last season following a late-season promotion to the White Sox, but it may be too little, too late.

Like Flowers, Gimenez will be under some pressure to perform from a couple of minor leaguers.

@MatthewSmithBR