Dallas Mavericks Playoff Roundtable: Round One

Well, look who it is, your old buddies from the Dallas Mavericks roundtable. In this article, we will break down the keys to the Dallas Mavericks' first round series against the San Antonio Spurs.

And in case you can't get enough of our brilliant analysis, we will break down the other playoff matchups in another article.

1. How will the Mavs stop Tony Parker? Who should be guarding him most of the time?

Janet Kessler: After watching game one, no doubt Berea needs to stick to Parker.  JJ made Parker work on both ends of the floor. JJ even drew two charges on Parker. No other Mav came close to containing him like JJ.

Waleed Ershad: A lot of the ignorant analysts are talking about how Tony Parker is going to shred Jason Kidd and that's why the Spurs are going to do well against the Mavs. Ummm maybe they haven't watched the Mavs games because Kidd seldom defends the opposing PG. He usually switches off to the opposing SG or  SF, whichever is slower or stronger.

Antoine Wright, JJ Barea, and Jason Terry will pick Parker up for most of the series.  Terry gets the dominant amount of minutes out of those 3 so he will guard Parker most of the game, including crunch time. I'd imagine Barea or Wright picking Parker up in the start of the game though.

Alex McVeigh: Tony Parker won't average 90 PPG for the series, so as long as the Mavs shut down everyone else, particularly Duncan, Parker will probably have a good series.

With his speed he'll wear down defenders quick, so I imagine Wright will help on him, and J.J. seemed to get in his head in game one, wearing him out by crunch time, which helped a great deal.

Terry needs to be able to stop Parker in crunch time, the Mavs have enough to worry about with Finley and Mason on the perimeter and Duncan on the low post, then to worry about Parker getting to the cup.

Robert Allred: Devin Harr...oh, wait...nevermind.

In all seriosness though, I don't think we are going to stop Tony Parker. He's going to get his.

I would alternate between Kidd and Wright defending him.

2. What are some of the other key matchups that the Mavs need to win in order to win the series?

Janet: The battle of the benches, is in Dallas favor. In game one Dallas outscored S.A. 39-14. JJ, Bass, and Terry push in the second quarter to keep the Mavs in the game, with Dirk on the bench in foul trouble.  Again JJ setting the pace, to start the the third.  This will be a draining series, the Mavs will need the infusion of energy from their bench.

Waleed: If Barea starts Parker will probably defend him and Roger Mason will pick up Kidd I'd imagine. But if Wright starts Mason will defend him and Parker will defend Kidd.  There Kidd has the strength advantage. Kidd needs to make Parker work on the defensive end and post him up.

Also, Michael Finley will probably defend Josh Howard. Finley is playing out of position, weaker (than Howard), undersized, and old which naturally means he's slower now. Josh Howard needs to exploit all those factors. But Josh Howard did stink it up last post-season against Peja Stojakovic, who isn't known for his defense either.

San Antonio also has to worry about the one and only Dirk Nowitzki.  Will Matt Bonner start off on him?  Dirk can torch him. Will Duncan try to guard him? I don't think so because that will wear Duncan out defensively and offensively. Will Bowen/Udoka check him? That will allow Nowitzki to overpower them and it will also allow Josh Howard to do damage.

Alex: Dirk needs to exploit everyone they throw at him until Duncan is forced to defend him. If Dirk can go wild over Bonner and Thomas, then Duncan has to guard him, which in turn opens things up for Bass and Dampier. 

Josh Howard should be able to make Finley work hard every possession, especially if he's driving into the paint. Given Finley's age, that should be a big advantage.

Robert: I think one of the key underrated matchups is Dampier on Duncan. Dampier had a solid game Saturday, and that will need to continue for the Mavs to win this series. Like Parker, Duncan is going to get his, but Damp needs to continue to slow him down.

3. Who is the X-factor for the Mavs this series?

Janet: I was saying Josh, and he is a factor for the Mavs. Keeping him healthy is crucial to the Mavs success. The real X-factor could prove to be JJ, with his work on Parker.  The Mavs have no one else, 'cept Terry that came close to staying with Parker.

Waleed: We all know it's Josh Howard. When he's slashing, defending, and making jumpers the Mavs are hard to beat.

Alex: Howard needs to do what he's done, and Barea needs to play within himself, but I see Bass making a big difference against the Spurs. The Spurs have Bonner, Duncan and Thomas in the frontcourt, neither of whom is particularly athletic.

Bass needs to get his tough boards, hit his jumper, but more importantly, he needs to hand out free tickets to the gun show as much as possible. The Spurs have always struggled against athletic guys like Howard and Bass, and they need to take advantage.

Robert: Josh Howard. In fact, Josh Howard is the key to the entire playoffs. If the Mavs are going to do anything in this postseason run, they will need help from every one of their Big Three. You never have to worry about Dirk, and Kidd has been great since coming back to Dallas. Howard has been the biggest question mark, particularly because of his injury problems, but if he continues to play like he did on Saturday, I like the Mavs' chances.

4. What lineup do you think will be most effective?

Janet: J-Kidd, JJ, Josh, Dirk, and Damp. 

Waleed: I think Kidd, Terry, Howard, Nowitzki, and Dampier will be the most effective. Terry and Dampier will have a lot of responsibility to do a decent job on Parker and Duncan, respectively. Kidd will probably have to chase Mason/Finely around screens and defend the 3-pointer. Offensively, this line-up will give San Antonio problems.

Alex: The stats said that Kidd, Terry, Howard, Dirk and Bass was the most effective in the NBA this year, but they only played 123 mins together. I think that is a perfect lineup to exploit the Spurs' weaknesses.

Robert: I think for a team like the Spurs, we should just roll out our starting five and go with it. Nothing fancy.

Dirk, Kidd, Howard, Wright, Damp.

With the game in the later stages and everything on the line, the only thing I change is Terry for Wright.

5. Manu Ginobili hasn't played the Mavs at all this season, yet the series is even at 2-2. What do the Mavs need to do to make the Spurs miss  Ginobili?

Janet: Keep their bench playing red-hot, like game one. The Spurs have no one to compete with them.

Waleed: We need to run off Mason, Finley, and Bonner off the 3-point line and make them drive, something they are not comfortable with. Ginobili, of course, can drive and shoot the three so the Spurs will miss him dearly.

Alex: Not giving up the corner three to Finley and Bonner is a start, and rotating quickly around the perimeter is key. The Spurs don't have many players that can hit the midrange shot, which was a Ginobili strong suit.

You figure Duncan and Parker will get theirs in the paint, so if the Mavs can shut down the outside shot, they should be okay.

Robert: I'm not a great X's and O's guy, so this answer will be very generic in nature.

One of the hardest things about facing the Spurs has always that they have three guys that can legitmately take over the game. Now they have two. If the Mavs can shut one of them down, preferably Duncan, then the Spurs will desperately miss Ginobili.

Parker is great, but he's not going to beat the Mavs without a little help from his friends.

6. Your pick?

Janet: Mavs in 5.

Waleed: I am really confident that the Mavs can pull this one out. But San Antonio really scares me because they do have perhaps the best PF ever and a confident and improved Tony Parker. The Spurs are the Spurs and will not make it easy. I have the Mavs in 6.

Alex: With a win in game one, the worst that can happen is heading to Dallas at 1-1. If Dallas can take care of business at home, they should do it in six.

Robert: Before this series, my pick was the Mavs in 6, and I'm sticking with it. I thought we would split the first two, sweep the second two, lose again on the road, and then win at home in game 6.

However, I thought we would lose game one. If we can somehow steal both road games to start the series, I like the Mavs in 5.