New England Patriots: Stick with the Pick, or Stick to Protocol?

As the April 26 NFL Draft approaches, no one team may be watched more closely than the New England Patriots.  After a loss that was nothing short of devatating to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl in February, the Patriots will look to avoid the peculiar trend of the Super Bowl loser.  Every team that has made it to the final game and lost since the early 2000s has had at the very least a somewhat underwhelming follow-up the next season. 

The Patriots, as everyone knows, lost their first round selection as a penalty for spygate.  In addition, the Patriots have the number seven overall selection that they received in a trade with San Francisco last year.  You would have to be living under a rock for the last year to not catch those two blurbs, but I guess they're worth repeating to set the premise for this article. 

The question that the Patriots are faced with answering is this.  Should they keep this pick, and get a blue chip stud, or trade down for multiple picks later in the first round of the draft?  One scenario that seems to have stirred up some discussion is what will happen if Darren McFadden falls to New England at No. 7?  This seems to be the most likely of trade scenarios for the Pats, and it takes a simple equation to explain why.

Jerry Jones loves the Arkansas guy + Jerry Jones has the No. 22 and No. 28 overall selections + the Patriots have more experience since Belichick and Pioli have been in New England drafting in the later part of the first round + Did I mention Jerry Jones loves the Arkansas guy?

Well, it at least seems to make sense that this could happen.  My question is, if this were to happen, what would be the correct move for the Patriots?  Let's take a look at this from both angles. 

Stick with the Pick

As an almost unanimous viewpoint, the Patriots two biggest needs are at defensive back and linebacker.  There are a multitude of defensive backs in this draft that can make an impact on a team now or down the road.  Mike Jenkins, Leodis McKelvin, Aqib Talib, Antoine Cason, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Tyvon Branch are all cornerback prospects that will be highly sought after come draft day.  Looking at linebacker, Keith Rivers and Dan Connor are the only high end linebacker prospects, except if the Patriots would be interested in converting Vernon Gholston into an outside linebacker should he fall to pick #7.  The Patriots have lost Asante Samuel, Randall Gay and Eugene Wilson to free agency, so in my opinion the secondary is the first priority.  Look at it from this perspective, however. With picks 1-6, a cornerback will most likely NOT be taken.  If the Patriots select a corner with the #7 pick, he will be the first of probably five or six corners taken in the first two rounds, and is going to want to get paid for being the first taken out of a big, talented group of corners.  That means the Pats will have to dish out money that they weren't willing to spend on keeping Asante Samuel, so what was the point in letting Samuel go if they select a corner with this pick?  I know you could get younger, but you face being in the same position with this player down the road as you did with Asante Samuel this offseason.

Stick to Protocol

As I stated before, since Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli have been drafting the players for the New England Patriots, they have more experience drafting in the later part of the first round, and have had one top ten pick.  They drafted Richard Seymour at #6 overall, who is a staple on their defensive line.  Every other first round pick the Patriots have had ( aside from one #13 selection, Ty Warren, 2003 ) has been no higher than 21.  The players drafted by the Pats in the #21 to #32 pick range were Daniel Graham, Vince Wilfork, Benjamin Watson, Logan Mankins, Laurence Maroney and Brandon Meriweather.  It is safe to say that many football minds would consider that a good drafting pedigree.  If the Patriots get #22 and #28, they could maybe get Rivers or Conner if they fall or draft one of the corners that are left near the end of the first round for less money.

The Lowdown

I guess at this point it all comes down to the Patriots' draft board.  Do the Patriots think Keith Rivers or Dan Connor could even fit the 3-4 scheme, and do they even like any of the cornerbacks in this draft to fit their system?  The Patriots, along with the Chargers and Colts, are the best in the league at drafting and evaluating young talent.  It will be interesting to see whether the Patriots will keep the #7 overall pick if McFadden falls to them, or trade the pick to the Cowboys for an opportunity to get right back into their drafting wheelhouse.  If history repeats itself, the Patriots would trade the pick and jump on the opportunity to get a quantity of picks, instead of going for a certain quality with their draft picks.  In my opinion, the Patriots should stick to protocol, and select two players that will make an impact on the team instead of drafting one player that will most likely be a star, but it's as they say, two is always better than one.  Especially in the New England Patriots case.