Duke Basketball: 5 Keys to Ensure a Deep Run in the NCAA Men's Tournament

Following a tough loss to Maryland in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, Duke was bumped down to the No. 2 seed in the toughest region of the NCAA Tournament, the Midwest. The journey to another Final Four, and potentially another national championship for the storied program, now seems like an obstacle that cannot be overcome without some breaks here and there and with a little luck as well.

The region has the number one overall seed in the tournament in Louisville, who many believe are the favorite to win it all this year. Along with them are the perennial March contenders, Michigan State, and their fantastic coach, Tom Izzo. The other candidates to escape from this region also present tough possible tests for Duke should they meet: a sturdy Saint Louis team, Creighton and star player Doug McDermott, Oklahoma State with super-frosh Marcus Smart and the relatively untested but balanced Memphis team.

So what does Duke need to do in order to escape this loaded gauntlet of a region? Let's look at the five major keys to a few more weekends of basketball for Duke.

Shoot Three-Pointers Efficiently

Duke's Achilles heel in recent years has been converting their three-point shots effectively and as frequently as possible.

While the need to do that has minimized this year with the major improvement in low post threat Mason Plumlee, they can still occasionally rely on it too often, as we saw in the last loss to Maryland in the ACC Tournament. They shot four-of-25 from long distance in that game while Mason Plumlee shot an efficient eight-for-12 inside the three-point line. Now, games like this don't happen very often for Duke, as they do shoot an impressive 40.6% on Three-Point shots, ranking fourth nationally.

By having three elite 40+% shooters in Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly and Quinn Cook, along with a gunner in Rasheed Sulaimon, who can get hot in a hurry, the Blue Devils have an arsenal that can really spread a defense in the half court. It opens up space for Plumlee down low to either make a move to the basket, or find three to four capable shooters on the outside, should their defenders double down on the post.

Not many teams in the NCAA Tournament have the luxury that Duke has in possessing all these good shooters.

Get Mason Plumlee the Ball

Due to the tremendous balance Duke has on offense, some might say that Mason Plumlee does not need the ball that much and that Duke needs their guards to be the catalyst for a deep run in this tournament.

I would counter that idea with the contention that Plumlee draws in being such a dominant presence down low. It allows Coach K to implement an offense with four players, usually his best shooters, on the perimeter.

In having a stretch 4 in Ryan Kelly, he can roam the perimeter as Plumlee has the ball down low, constantly moving to free himself just enough to get an open look via Plumlee when Kelly's defender sags off.

If the perimeter defenders do not help off their man, Plumlee is free to make any move to get to the rim and either score or draw a foul. One of the biggest improvements in his game this season has been his foul shooting. He has improved from a 53% FT shooter to a 67% FT shooter, shedding the late game liability on offense for opposing teams to foul him. This improvement has led to him getting to the line more often this season as well; he has improved from 5.2 FTA's to 7.3 FTA's.

With Plumlee's improvement on the offensive end and Duke's large arsenal of potent outside shooting, opposing teams will need to pick their poison on defense.

Strong Guard Play

Over the years, Duke has produced some of the most elite collegiate guards in all of college basketball: Jay Williams, Kyrie Irving and J.J. Redick to name a few with several others becoming very efficient leaders late in their careers seasons to cap off great tournament runs for Duke like Jon Scheyer in 2010.

The guard positions for Duke have always been filled to the brim with talent, being able to wear opponents down with consistent attack in the lane and dependable shooting from the outside. This year's group is no different with two high level shooters in Seth Curry and Rasheed Sulaimon, the point guard of the most efficient offense in the ACC statistically, Quinn Cook, and a defensive stopper in Tyler Thornton.

Thornton, known for his defensive abilities, has turned into a very good outside shooter as well, shooting almost 36% on three-pointers.

Cook is having an excellent sophomore season for Duke, having the keys to Duke's high powered offense. He's averaging just over 12 points per game, shooting over 40% from three-point range and managing the game very efficiently with a 2.3 A/TO ratio. He shows excellent poise for a sophomore and has had one of his better games earlier this year against arguably the tournament's toughest defensive team for opposing guards, VCU.

Sulaimon has been one of the most productive freshmen in the country this season, averaging over 11 points per game. The only concern is that he has hit the proverbial "wall" as most freshmen do in their first full season of college basketball. He has only totaled 33 points in his last five games, while shooting 13-for-25 on field goals, a less than stellar 37% compared to the 43% he shot for the season. He must improve his performance and show he is up to the tall task of the NCAA Tournament. 

Lastly, Curry has been the go-to guard for Duke this season, despite battling severe shin problems that often keep him out of practice, leaving him only available for games. His production and leadership have been unquestioned all season, as he's averaged over 17 points point game on above average shooting numbers. His shooting splits are: 46% FG, 43% 3PT-FG, 82% FT. Curry redshirted the year Duke last won the national championship in 2009 and he knows this will be his last shot at one for himself. You can bet he will do all he can and leave everything on the floor.

The guards for Duke show great balance of youthful talent and veteran experience that can help overcome other teams with only one of the those two elements. If the guards play well, it will be hard to beat Duke. 

Out-Rebound Other Teams

While Duke does possess one of the best rebounders in the country in Mason Plumlee, they have been underwhelming at times in attacking the glass. 

In each of Duke's 5 losses this season, they have been out-rebounded by their opponents. Being out-rebounded isn't the sole reason they lost those games, but it was the only common denominator in the losses when looking at other factors; things like poor outside shooting, foul trouble, turnovers and missed foul shots.

One of the possible reasons for four of these losses could be the absence of Ryan Kelly down low. He did not average a high number of rebounds per game, coming in at 5.4, but those can be the difference between an extra offensive possession or preventing a second possession for the opposing team. Since he has come back, he has averaged that same number and the Blue Devils are 3-1, with the loss to Maryland being attributed to very poor outside shooting. 

If Duke wants to take a step towards winning this tournament, out-rebound the other team. Doing so hasn't failed them yet. 

Get More Penetration on Offense

As we saw in the last game Duke played, their outside shot was not falling, and they did not have a plan B other than maybe trying to get Mason Plumlee the ball more. When they rely on outside shooting this much, their opponent tends to know what is coming.

Duke should be able to use this to their advantage against teams that defend the three-point shot well and use it as a decoy. Shot fakes and pick and rolls would work best to ensure that Duke gets to the rim more often for easier shots.

With Quinn Cook being the solid distributor he is, they can use him more often in late-in-the-shot-clock situations with Plumlee to get an easier look than a contested jumper. If this type of two man game begins to work and break down a defense, the shooters will get better looks as help defenders sag off. This will also allow Duke to attack the rim more as shooters will be overplayed and cuts to the basket will be opened up from the outside. 

Against Maryland, they did not do a good enough job attacking the stronger players to try and get them in foul trouble. If they add this dimension to the offense, they no longer need to worry about being hindered by a cold shooting night from outside and teams will have that much more to worry about on defense.