Odds of Every Notable Phillies Prospect in Camp Making the Roster

When you're a prospect, cracking your club's Opening Day roster out of spring training is no simple task. 

Nowadays, clubs aren't concerned about the here and now with prospects; they're concerned about the future. Rushing a prospect to MLB could stunt his development and hurt the team in the long-run, and there is a lot on the line for prospects in this day and age. 

But not every prospect follows the rules. The perfect storm of development and circumstance could certainly lead to a player reaching the major leagues before he is supposed to and the Philadelphia Phillies will have a number of players in camp trying to do just that. 

Being realistic, this isn't an going to be an easy spring for most Phillies prospects. This is an older club with very few openings available. For most of these guys, making the club means that they'll have done something spectacular in the spring. 

The possibility exists for some of them to make the club, however, and that is the point of this slideshow. We'll break down the odds of making the Opening Day roster for every prospect in camp with the Phillies this spring, based on a scale of one to 100 percent.

Cody Asche

Odds: One percent

Something would have to go catastrophically wrong with Michael Young for the Phillies to even consider having Cody Asche open the season with the club.

But the Phillies are optimistic—to the point of being giddy—about Asche eventually becoming their best homegrown third baseman since Scott Rolen. Whether or not this is a realistic possibility is still up in the air. 

Asche, 22, was very impressive in 2012. He crushed High-A pitching, earning a promotion to Double-A Reading where he hit .300 / .360 / .513 with 10 home runs. 

Even amid all of the success, Asche still polarizes scouts. Some believe he'll be a solid third baseman. Others believe that he is a below-average defender and doesn't have the frame to develop the necessary power to stick at a corner infield position.

He'll likely play in Triple-A Lehigh Valley this season. The Phillies seem intent on handing the reins over to Asche in 2014.  

Zach Collier

Odds: One percent

If Zach Collier had a poor season in 2012, not too many people would be surprised. After a few poor showings to open his professional career, Collier was suspended for Adderall usage in 2011. This wouldn't be the first time that the Phillies were snake-bitten by their draft philosophy of picking raw, but extremely talented, players. 

But Collier didn't technically fail. In fact, he had the best season of his professional career. 

After torching the pitching in rookie ball to open the year, the Phillies sent Collier to High-A Clearwater where he hit .269 / .333 / .399 with six home runs. They rewarded him with a trip to the Arizona Fall League where Collier was even more impressive. 

Even after putting some of the pieces together in 2012, however, there is still a ton of work to be done for the 22-year-old outfielder. As a member of the 40-man roster, he'll be in camp this spring, but even odds of one percent are generous. 

Tyson Gillies

Odds: One percent

There was a point during the offseason, after the Phillies had swung and missed at their first two targets, that a thought crept into my head regarding the future of the club's center field situation: Would this team be comfortable with Tyson Gillies in center? 

That wasn't the case, as the club would eventually add Ben Revere, but the fact that the thought was there means that Gillies is progressing. He hit .304 / .369 / .453 in Double-A Reading last season, but more importantly, he was able to, for the most part, stay healthy. 

He also plays an above-average defensive center field and is a "plus-plus" runner. 

It will be interesting to see what the future holds for Gillies with Revere now firmly entrenched in center at the major league level, but he has a lot of potential and could be an interesting corner outfielder (or center fielder for a different club) if he could ever put it all together. 

Cesar Hernandez

Odds: One percent

Even after four years in the Phillies' system, opinions on second baseman Cesar Hernandez are still a mixed bag. 

The real problem with Hernandez, at least from a scouting perspective, is that he hasn't progressed in the way that some scouts believed he would. He is a good contact hitter, but not great. He is a very good defender at second base, but doesn't have the arm to play other infield positions. 

And that's the conundrum surrounding Hernandez, in a nutshell. He is a solid prospect that hasn't progressed quite in the way that the club had hoped and there is no room for him on the major league roster, especially since he doesn't have the versatility to play a utility role. 

Tommy Joseph

Odds: One percent

The Phillies can be a difficult organization to get a read on, but after this whole Domonic Brown and "is he ready?" fiasco, it would be seriously surprising to see them promote a positional prospect before he is 100 percent ready to go. 

That's why 2013 is going to be a huge year for catcher Tommy Joseph. 

Acquired in the trade that sent Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants, Joseph quickly became a bit part of the Phillies' future. With Carlos Ruiz set to become a free agent at season's end, Joseph could be the heir apparent. 

In order to do so, he'll have to progress in the way that scouts thought he would. That entails calling a good game, playing top-notch defense and developing power. 

When and if it all comes together, Joseph can be a very good catcher in this league with better than average offensive upside. But he's not ready for MLB right now and the onus is on the Phillies to allow him the necessary time to progress and develop. 

Ethan Martin

Odds: One percent

After Josh Lindblom tanked in the Phillies bullpen, Ethan Martin single-handedly made the Shane Victorino trade look like a good idea for the Phils last season. 

Martin joined Double-A Reading at the trade deadline and the command woes that had plagued him as a Los Angeles Dodgers prospect began to evaporate when he posted a record of 5-0 to go along with a 3.18 ERA. 

Now, a lot has to go right for Martin in the minors before he is even considered for a spot in the rotation. The command woes, while smaller, are still there and there is some chatter in the scouting community that he may be best suited for a relief role. 

The Phillies, however, will continue to develop him as a starting pitcher, and with the way that he succeeded in their minor league rotation last season, why wouldn't they? 

Adam Morgan

Odds: One percent

Adam Morgan is in camp as a visitor this spring, but with his rate of progression over the last couple of seasons, it won't be long until he is a member of the starting rotation and here to stay. 

Morgan, a third-round pick in 2011, has cemented his status as a top-five Phillies' prospect, according to most list-makers, and he is quickly becoming a system favorite. 

He generates a lot of movement on his fastball and has a good feel for all of his secondary offerings. After starting the 2012 season in High-A Clearwater, Morgan was promoted to Double-A Reading later that year, where he posted a record of 4-1 with a 3.53 ERA. 

How the Phillies handle the lefty this season will be interesting. He is probably advanced enough to open the year in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but he could go back to Reading to start the season as well.

J.C. Ramirez

Odds: One percent

I'm not sure that there is a prospect in the Phillies' organization who has fallen further than J.C. Ramirez. Once a top prospect acquired in the trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners, Ramirez's descent continued this offseason when the Phillies out-righted him off of the 40-man roster. 

Now in camp as a non-roster invitee, Ramirez is going to need a bit of magic to turn things around. He was used exclusively as a reliever last season, where he posted a 3.95 combined ERA over Double-A and Triple-A. 

There is still some talent here, but it sure seems as though Ramirez has fallen out of favor with the Phillies' organization.

Tyler Cloyd

Odds: Five percent

After winning 15 games in the minors last season, the Phillies called Tyler Cloyd up to join their starting rotation. He was solid, posting a record of 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA. 

When the offseason began, there was certainly a scenario that would see Cloyd remain in the rotation for 2013 as the club's fifth starter, but that scenario all but flew out the window when the Phillies added John Lannan on a one-year deal. 

Now, any starting pitcher on the periphery is going to have a tough time cracking the roster, let alone a guy with fringe-stuff like Cloyd. The best bet is that he opens the season at Triple-A, but the Phillies could convert him into a long reliever and see how that works out as well.

Jermaine Mitchell

Odds: Five percent

Jermaine Mitchell isn't much of a household name, having just joined the organization, but if there is any one area of the club where the Phillies could use some depth, it is in the left-handed power department. 

The Phillies signed Mitchell to a minor league deal after he was released by the Oakland Athletics early in the offseason. 

At 28 years old, he isn't much of a prospect anymore, but with Laynce Nix's failure to cement his role on the club last season, a guy like Mitchell could step up and make some noise with a quality spring. Otherwise, he is another option for a corner outfield spot in Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Sebastian Valle

Odds: Five percent

It would be a surprise to see Sebastian Valle open the 2013 season with the Phillies. 

While he eventually earned a promotion to Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year, his showing at the most advanced stage of the minors was unimpressive. He hit just .218 / .232 / .397 and showed abysmal plate discipline, striking out in 37.8 percent of his at-bats. 

Valle has come a long way from the "raw" talent that he was when the Phillies first signed him at age 16, but they have never rushed him through the system and now would be a terrible time to start. 

They have a need for a temporary backup catcher, but Valle isn't ready for MLB.

Justin Friend

Odds: 10 percent

On most other clubs, Justin Friend's chances of breaking camp with the big league club would be much better, based on the success of his 2012 season in the minors. But the Phillies are stacked to the brim with relievers, and this comes down to being a numbers crunch. 

Friend, 26, was excellent as Double-A Reading's closer last season, saving 24 games and posting an ERA of 0.23, earning himself a promotion to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he started to settle in nicely. 

The Phillies are bringing Friend to camp as a non-roster invitee this spring, so the odds are stacked against him right off of the bat. If he wants to earn a spot on the major league club, he'll have to fight his way onto the 40-man roster first.

Still, I like his odds better than some of the other relief prospects in camp.

Mauricio Robles

Odds: 10 percent 

Mauricio Robles is an interesting name to keep an eye on. The Phillies claimed him off of waivers from the Seattle Mariners when the season ended, meaning that he is a member of their 40-man roster and closer to the major leagues than some other relievers in camp. 

Robles, 23, has been a frustrating project for the Mariners. Signed at just 17 years old, he progressed through the system slowly and has never maximized his potential. 

The M's finally gave up on Robles, but the Phillies clearly believe that he is still worth giving a shot. He'll be in camp competing as a left-handed specialist, but it is much more likely that he is sent to Triple-A to open the season.

Ender Inciarte

Odds: 15 percent 

If the Phillies were serious about changing the dynamic of their bench, adding Ender Inciarte to it is a good way to start. That would most likely involve cutting Laynce Nix, however, and that doesn't seem all that likely at this point. 

There is a chance, though, that with a good spring, Inciarte could see those odds increase. He is an above-average runner and defensive outfielder, and he could probably step right in and be a solid bench player at the major league level. 

The obvious concern here is that he is 22 years old and hasn't played above High-A—the equivalent of Clearwater in the Phillies' system. 

He'll be an interesting name to keep an eye on this spring and has better odds than most prospects to make the major league club because he is a Rule 5 pick. But the more likely scenario here is that the Phillies will work out some kind of deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks to keep him in the system, allowing them to option him to the minors.

Kyle Simon

Odds: 15 percent

2012 was a disappointing year for the Phillies, but one of their brightest moments came during an under-the-radar trade, sending Jim Thome to the Baltimore Orioles for prospects Kyle Simon and Gabriel Lino. 

Lino, a young catcher, is still years away from the major leagues, but the Phillies may have found a real gem in Simon, a right-handed pitcher who was instantly converted into a reliever upon joining the organization. 

After tearing up High-A Clearwater out of the bullpen, the Phillies promoted Simon to Double-A Reading, where he appeared in 13 games and posted an ERA of 1.42. 

Although he is in camp as a non-roster invitee this spring, it wouldn't be surprising to see Simon start the year in Triple-A and stand right on the doorstep to MLB in 2013.

Jon Pettibone

Odds: 20 percent

If the Phillies hadn't signed John Lannan over the offseason, Jon Pettibone seemed like he would be the favorite to break camp as the club's fifth starter. While that opportunity is obviously much smaller with the addition of Lannan, there is still a small chance that Pettibone could win the job. 

A lot of that chatter was built around a phenomenal 2012 season. Pettibone pitched very well in Double-A Reading before the Phillies promoted him to Triple-A during the season. He posted a record of 4-1 with an ERA of 2.55 in seven starts. 

But that's the catch: it was only seven starts.

The signing of Lannan suggests that the Phillies would prefer Pettibone to build up some experience in Triple-A, but in the event of an injury (or spring struggles from Lannan), Pettibone may have leaped over Tyler Cloyd on the depth chart. He has better "stuff." 

Jake Diekman

Odds: 50 percent

With so many exciting arms competing for just a few spots in the bullpen this year, Jake Diekman is quickly becoming a forgotten name. He'll have to have a great spring to make the club, so right now, his odds are essentially 50/50. 

But there are people within the Phillies organization who love what Diekman brings to the table as a left-handed specialist, and it isn't hard to figure out why. Take a look at that photo. His delivery is all limbs and it can't be comfortable to stand in the box against him. 

Diekman brings a good fastball to the table and he spent 2012 continuing to develop his secondary offerings. He is certainly an under-the-radar name to watch in camp.

Justin De Fratus

Odds: 95 percent

Had he not been sidelined with an injury last spring, Justin De Fratus probably would have gone north at the end of camp with the rest of the Phillies and joined the bullpen. But he was sidelined with an injury, missing the first half of the regular season and delaying his MLB reentry until September. 

Now fully healthy, De Fratus should make the club this year and become one of the Phillies' better arms. He has a solid fastball / slider combination that has worked particularly well for relievers in the past, but the kicker here is that De Fratus controls his offerings. 

Darin Ruf

Odds: 99 percent

I don't like calling anyone's odds "100 percent" because it feels kind of absolute, but Darin Ruf is as close as you're going to get to 100 percent on this list, especially with Delmon Young likely to open the regular season on the disabled list. 

Ruf made his major league debut after torching minor league pitching last season and continued to destroy baseballs upon his arrival to the Phillies, leaving fans practically begging the organization to make him the starting left fielder. 

He'll have his opportunity to prove that he can handle such a role this spring, and if he is able to do so, he has the kind of potential that makes a player like Young obsolete. 

Maybe Ruf is nothing more than a below-average defender with incredible right-handed power, especially against lefties—but hey, there is value in that.

Personally, I believe that there is room for more growth for Ruf, but he is pretty much a lock to make the club out of spring training. 

Final Note

Here's one final note. There are a few players in camp that some people may still consider prospects, but I think we've seen enough of them as MLB regulars to remove the "prospect" status. For the sake of full disclosure, here they are: 

Domonic Brown: 99.99%

Phillippe Aumont: 95%

Freddy Galvis: 85%