Ranking the Most Trustworthy Arms in the Cincinnati Reds' Bullpen

The Cincinnati Reds had the best bullpen in baseball last year.

Among all major league bullpens, the Reds ranked first in ERA, saves, earned runs and runs allowed. Additionally, the bullpen finished in the top five in wins, BAA, OBPa, SLGa, OPSa and K/9 (per ESPN.com).

This year, the bullpen will have something to prove with the subtraction of Aroldis Chapman, who will be taking his talents to the starting rotation. 

The team addressed this with the re-signing of Jonathan Broxton and the recent signing of Manny Para.

The Reds have re-tooled their bullpen a little bit in their last couple of months, but they still have a plethora of trustworthy arms.

One stat I will use repeatedly throughout this article is average leverage index or aLI. 

According to Baseball-Reference, average leverage index is a measure of "the average amount of pressure the pitcher or batter saw in this game or season." With 1.00 being average pressure, anything below 1.00 signifies low pressure anything above is indicative of a high-pressure situation.

Without further adieu, here's the entire Reds' bullpen ranked in order of their reliability.

Bullpen based on MLBdephcharts.com.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

7. Manny Parra

Manny Parra is a newcomer to the Reds' bullpen. 

Parra spent each of his first five seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers, mostly serving as a starter.

In fact, in his first four seasons, Parra made twice as many starts than he did relief appearances (74-36).

The Brewers shortly found out that he wasn't really very good at either.

Here are Parra's five-year averages with the Brewers:

Manny Parra	aLI	G	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	H/9	HR/9
2007-2012	.94	172	74	513.0	5.12	1.65	8.4	4.6	1.83	10.2	1.0

Parra did not pitch at all in the 2011 season and underwent elbow surgery to replace a screw in his elbow.

Upon returning to Milwaukee in 2012, Parra promptly turned in a dismal season in which he pitched 58.2 innings, allowing a 5.02 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP to go along with 9.4 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 1.74 K/BB and 9.5 H/9.

So why is Parra in Cincinnati?

It seems that Parra was brought on board to fill the left-handed specialist role.

Lefties batting against Parra in 2012 slashed .229/.323/.312 with just one home run, 11 RBI and six doubles allowed.

If he can pitch like that against lefties, then he will provide a valuable service to the Reds—especially now that Aroldis Chapman has become a starter and Bill Bray has departed from Cincinnati.

For now though, he's the least reliable reliever in the Reds' bullpen.

6. Alfredo Simon

Alfredo Simon is a curious case.

Having spent his first four seasons as a member of the Baltimore Orioles, Simon came to Cincinnati in 2012 via waiver claim.

In his first four seasons with the Orioles, Simon averaged 46 IP with a 5.18 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP and ratios of 6.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.98 K/BB and 10.1 H/9.

In 2012, Simon put it all together and worked wonderfully as the Reds' long relief man, making 36 appearances while pitching 61 innings.

In those 61 innings, the 31-year-old right-hander worked to a 2.66 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Additionally, Simon surprised fans with ratios of 7.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.36 K/BB and 9.6 H/9.

Simon also showed a remarkable ability to keep the ball out of the cheap seats last season, allowing just two home runs all year.

His knack for keeping the ball out of the stands led to a 0.3 HR/9 rate, by far the lowest of his major league career.

Simon's 2012 season boasts improvements across the board from his previous four season's average.

Had Simon established any sort of track record for this type of performance, he could have challenged for one of the top two spots on this list.

However, before fans jump to conclusions, it's best to see what Simon does with another season in Cincinnati. 

5. Logan Ondrusek

Coming in at No. 5 is 6'8" right-hander Logan Ondrusek.

At season's end, Ondrusek had compiled a 5-2 record with a 3.46 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP and ratios of 6.4 K/9, 5.1 BB/9 and 1.26 K/BB.

On the surface Ondrusek had a decent season, but there's more to his 2012 than that.

Ondrusek received a late-season demotion to Triple-A Louisville, and although he only made three appearances at Triple-A before being recalled, the fact that he was selected for demotion is troubling.

After being recalled to Cincinnati, Ondrusek pitched to a 3.33 ERA with a 1.80 WHIP and ratios of 7.56 K9, 6.48 BB/9, 1.17 K/BB and 2.2 HR/9 (per ESPN.com).

Ondrusek was subsequently left off the Reds' playoff roster and didn't throw a pitch in the postseason.

Though 2012 wasn't a very successful season with the Reds, Ondrusek has established somewhat of a track record for being a dependable reliever.

Prior to his 2012 let down, Ondrusek was a very dependable reliever.

Years	aLI	G	IP	Hold	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	H/9	HR/9
2010-2011 avg.	1.09	63	60	10	3.45	1.27	6.0	3.7	1.67	7.8	1.0

Ondrusek's saving grace in 2012 was his ability to strand runners. Of the 42 runners he inherited on base when he entered the game, only four scored. His 10 percent IS% is the second lowest in the Reds' bullpen, behind Jonathan Broxton's zero.

Although Ondrusek's peripheral stats took a step back last season, if he maintains his ability to strand runners and keeps his ERA below 3.50, he should still be looked at as reliable.

4. Jose Arredondo

Jose Arredondo has somehow started to fall out of favor among Reds fans as the criticism continues to pile up on team message boards.

However, Arredondo is the fourth most reliable reliever on the Reds' roster.

Had Arredondo's aLI been higher, he could have been bumped up a spot, but with a career average of 1.08, it's hard to justify him being ahead of anyone other than Simon and Parra.

2012 was Arredondo's second season since coming back from Tommy John Surgery, which sidelined him for the entire 2010 season.

Since returning from injury, Arredondo has posted two consecutive seasons of improvement.

Season	aLI	G	IP	Hold	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	H/9	HR/9
2011	1.07	53	53.0	4	3.23	1.40	8.2	5.3	1.55	7.3	0.8
2012	.90	66	61.0	12	2.95	1.38	9.1	5.0	1.82	7.4	1.0
Averages	.99	60	57	8	3.08	1.39	8.7	5.1	1.69	7.3	0.9

Although they aren't major jumps, Arredondo has improved his metrics almost across the board (aside from H/9 and HR/9).

The improvement is critical to Arredondo's further development in Cincinnati.

Having improved his inherited runners scored percentage (IS%) in each of his seasons following his rookie campaign, it's safe to say that Arredondo is improving his stock within the organization.

Should the 28-year-old reliever continue to improve, he'll likely find himself thrown into higher-pressure situations where he should also succeed.

3. Jonathan Broxton

Jonathan Broxton has somehow gained a reputation of being an unreliable reliever. This is unfair and unfounded.

Over the course of his career, Jonathan Broxton has an aLI of 1.64, the highest mark of any reliever on the Reds roster.

2009 and 2012 provided the third highest and highest aLI values of his career. In those two seasons, Broxton posted arguably his best numbers ever.

Year	aLI	G	IP	SV	ERA	HR	XBH	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	H/9	HR/9
2009	1.82	73	76	36	2.61	4	9	0.96	13.5	3.4	3.93	5.2	0.5
2010	2.26	60	58	27	2.48	2	14	1.26	7.0	2.6	2.65	8.7	0.3

Broxton's 2.48 ERA, two home runs allowed and 2.6 BB/9 in 2012 were the best single season marks of his career, they also happened to come in the season where he was faced with the most pressure (2.26 aLI was a career high).

Broxton's 2012 season got better in some aspects after he was traded to the Reds.

Team	aLI	G	IP	SV	Hold	ERA	HR	XBH	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	H/9	HR/9
Royals	2.62	35	35.2	23	0	2.27	1	7	1.40	6.3	3.5	1.79	9.1	0.3
Reds	1.64	25	22.1	4	10	2.82	1	7	1.03	8.1	1.2	6.67	8.1	0.4

Although Broxton's ERA took a bit of a hit in Cincinnati, the rest of his peripheral numbers took a solid step forward.

Broxton dropped his walk rate while increasing his strikeout rate. This caused an improvement in the rest of his peripheral stats providing for an all-around good season.

Broxton, like Sean Marshall and Sam LeCure, was a prominent fixture in the postseason success of the Reds' bullpen.

The 28-year-old righty made three appearances in his sixth trip to the postseason, allowing no earned runs and just four hits while striking out four.

He clocks in at number three.

2. Sam LeCure

Sam LeCure took a big step forward in 2012.

Though he pitched less innings, LeCure made more appearances than in any of his previous season and finished with career bests in ERA, K/9 and HR/9.

Additionally, LeCure's outings came in more pressure situations than in any previous season, as evidenced by his .93 aLI last year.

LeCure finished 2012 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP with ratios of 9.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.65 K/BB and 0.5 HR/9.

Though this all is impressive, LeCure's first and second half splits, along with his home and away splits, are most telling of his reliability.

Splits	G	IP	ERA	HR	XBH	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	H/9	HR/9
Home	26	33.1	2.70	3	7	0.90	10.0	2.70	3.70	5.40	0.8
Away	22	24	3.75	0	7	1.63	9.0	4.87	1.85	9.75	0.0
1st Half	23	30.1	3.86	3	9	1.42	8.6	4.01	1.93	7.56	0.8
2nd Half	25	27	2.33	0	5	0.96	10.7	2.67	4.00	6.00	0.00

Curiously enough, LeCure was a substantially better pitcher at home than he was on the road. LeCure's home field, Great American Ball Park, is generally seen as a hitter's paradise and yielded the third most home runs per game in the National League last season (per hittrackeronline.com).

LeCure showed in the second half of the season that he was as reliable as anybody in the Reds' bullpen. LeCure's reliability was rewarded with three appearances in the postseason. In turn, LeCure upheld their trust with a stellar performance in the playoffs.

Like Sean Marshall, LeCure turned in a masterful performance in the 2012 postseason

The 28-year-old righty got his first taste of playoff baseball. LeCure pitched four innings in three appearances, allowing no runs on just two hits and giving up just two walks while striking out five.

LeCure, like Marshall, will be looked to in pressure cooker situations in the upcoming season.

1. Sean Marshall

Sean Marshall is the best pitcher in the Cincinnati Reds bullpen. He's arguably the most reliable pitcher on the team (starter or reliever) and is one of the steadiest lefties in all of baseball.

Over the course of his career, Marshall has been a great clutch pitcher.

Although he struggled last season as the Reds closer, he's been a great set-up man for the past three seasons.

Since becoming a full-time set-up man in 2010, Marshall has compiled an 18-16 record, a 2.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP to go along with ratios of 10.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 4.19 K/BB.

In that same three years, Marshall has allowed just seven home runs and 58 walks.

Marshall was deemed trustworthy enough to warrant a three-year $21 million contract extension.

What makes Marshall so reliable is his ability to pitch under pressure.

Since 2010, Marshall's appearances have averaged an aLI of 1.48, nearly 50 percent higher than average.

In that same time frame, Marshall procured 78 holds in relief and an inherited runners scored percentage (IS%) of 24 percent.

Marshall showed his worth on the biggest stage of his career in 2012.

During the Reds' ALDS matchup against the San Francisco Giants, Marshall pitched in four innings over three appearances, allowing not a single run, hit or walk, while striking out three.

Marshall may never become a closer but his value as a set-up man is nearly irreplaceable to the Reds.