Ranking the Top 10 Prospects in the Minnesota Twins' Farm System
Headed into the 2012 season, the Minnesota Twins’ farm system was in poor shape and arguably among the worst in the game. Their only true prospect, third baseman Miguel Sano, was viewed as a potentially elite talent with major question marks due to his lack of plate discipline and overall experience.
However, the system has an entirely new outlook just a year later, as Sano now heads a prospect pool of at least five potential top-100 candidates.
The team netted two top-10 players in the first round of the 2012 draft in outfielder Byron Buxton—one of the more toolsy prospects in the game—and right-hander Jose Berrios. It also featured numerous prospects who enjoyed breakout seasons at the plate in Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler.
More importantly, the Twins finally have a few pitching prospects to be excited about in recently acquired right-handers Alex Meyer (from the Nationals) and Trevor May (from the Phillies). Furthermore, last year featured the resurgence of former No. 1 pick Kyle Gibson, who had missed most of the previous season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Expect all three pitchers to play a crucial role in the team’s starting rotation as early as late 2013.
Here’s a look at the Minnesota Twins’ top 10 prospects.
10. OF Max Kepler
1 of 10Position: OF
DOB: 2/10/1993 (Age: 19)
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 180
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: July, 2009 (Germany)
ETA: 2016
Scouting Notes: An international free agent signed out of Germany, Kepler posted a .714 OPS with 15 extra-base hits as an 18-year-old in the Appalachian League in 2011. He mastered the level last season, batting .287/.387/.539 with 31 extra-base hits (10 home runs) and 33/27 K/BB in 59 games.
He has a highly projectable 6’4” frame with plenty of room to add strength. He's a high-level athlete who passes the eye test. He has good speed but is not a base-stealer. He has a solid swing from the left side. His bat yields hard contact. His swing can get too long, but he’s exhibited the ability to make adjustments. His hit and and power tools both flash above-average potential.
His speed plays well in the outfield, but he still possesses average range. His average arm strength may not be enough for right field. He will probably end up a left fielder or a potential tweener.
His athleticism will always give him a chance. He has a lot of upside, but it may take him some time to get there. He may struggle in his full-season debut, but he’s still very young.
2013 Opening Day Level: Low-A
9. RHP Jose Berrios
2 of 10Position: RHP
DOB: 5/27/1994 (Age: 18)
Height/Weight: 6’, 187
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: First round, 2012 (Papa Juan HS, P.R.)
ETA: 2016
Scouting Notes: This right-hander didn’t get as many looks as most other Puerto Rican draft picks. But he showed enough upside to be picked in the first round. He enjoyed an exceptional professional debut across two levels after signing, registering a 1.08 ERA with 27/3 K/BB in 16.2 innings in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, followed by 1.29 ERA with 22/1 K/BB in 14 innings in the Appalachian League.
He finished his pro debut with 49/4 K/BB in 30.2 innings, showing the ability to miss bats with ease. He has a very quick arm, but lacks physical projection at 6’, 187 pounds.
His fastball sits at 92-94 mph, but projects for a few ticks extra as he adds strength. His pitch has late life, and his secondary arsenal is far more advanced than anyone expected. His curveball is a sharp breaker but lacks consistency. He doesn’t throw it with consistent pace and shape. It is slurve-like at times.
He turns over his changeup well. He has a good feel for the pitch at a young age. He isn’t afraid to attack hitters with his full arsenal, and his genuine arm strength should evolve as he develops.
2013 Opening Day Level: Low-A
8. RHP Trevor May
3 of 10Position: RHP
DOB: 9/23/1989 (Age: 23)
Height/Weight: 6’5”, 215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Fourth round, 2008 (Kelso HS, Wash.)
ETA: 2014
Scouting Notes: He finally made the jump to Double-A after three years up and down at Low and High-A. The 6’5” right-hander has a power pitcher’s frame and projectable arsenal. He took a step back with his command after a highly successful 2011 campaign and has a tendency to overthrow and, in turn, lose a feel for his natural arm slot.
His fastball sits at a very heavy 90-95 mph, and he can reach back for a few more ticks when needed. He throws the pitch on a solid downward plane. Effectively locating it is key to setting up his secondary offerings.
His curveball is a hammer when he doesn’t over-grip and spike it. His changeup has the potential to be an average pitch in the low-80s, though he throws it with inconsistent arm speed. His slider gives the tall right-hander a fourth potentially average pitch.
2013 Opening Day Level: Triple-A
7. 2B/OF Eddie Rosario
4 of 10Position: 2B/OF
DOB: 9/28/1991 (Age: 21)
Height/Weight: 6’, 170
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: Fourth round, 2010 (Puerto Rico)
ETA: 2015
Scouting Notes: He made his full-season debut as a 20-year-old at Low-A Beloit in the Midwest League. A left-handed hitter, he batted .296/.345/.490 with 48 extra-base hits in 95 games. He spent time on the disabled list after a line drive to the face during batting practice required surgery.
He has excellent athleticism and surprising strength in his 6’, 170-pound frame. He has a projectable hit tool and impressive bat-to-ball ability. He has a plan at the plate, makes adjustments and has a compact, fluid swing. He has above-average power potential that’s starting to emerge in games. He has above-average speed but is a sloppy, unrefined base-stealer. His on-base skills will have to improve.
He moved from the outfield to second base prior to the 2012 season and endured a challenging transition. He has the athleticism and arm strength, but his footwork and hands are still a work-in-progress. Regardless, his hit tool with some power will be what gets him to the major leagues. His ceiling is as a No. 2 hitter, his floor a No. 8 or 9.
2013 Opening Day Level: High-A
6. RHP Kyle Gibson
5 of 10Position: RHP
DOB: 10/23/1987 (Age: 25)
Height/Weight: 6’6”, 210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: First round, 2009 (Missouri)
ETA: 2013
Scouting Notes: He missed the end of the 2011 and most of the 2012 season after his elbow required Tommy John surgery. He returned to pitch at three levels, including Triple-A Rochester, and showcased the same advanced command and moderate strikeout potential as he did before the surgery. He turned in a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost time.
The 6’6” right-hander’s fastball works in the 88-94 mph range and will sometimes scrape a few ticks higher earlier in starts. His size allows him to throw on a solid downhill plane. He commands the pitch to both sides of the plate and needs to live down in the zone to be successful.
He throws his slider with consistent tilt. It's an above-average offering. His changeup gives him another secondary weapon. It has speed separation. He sells it with arm speed. His ceiling is as a No. 3 or 4 starter. He should spent most of the 2013 season in the major leagues.
2013 Opening Day Level: Triple-A
5. OF Oswaldo Arcia
6 of 10Position: OF
DOB: 5/9/1991 (Age: 21)
Height/Weight: 6’, 210
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: July, 2007 (Venezuela)
ETA: 2013
Scouting Notes: His bat busted out in a big way last season, as he hit for both average and power at two advanced levels. He batted .309/.376/.517 with 26 extra-base hits in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League (High-A), and followed that with a .328/.398/.557 slash line with 35 extra-base hits (10 home runs) in 69 games for Double-A New Britain.
He showed improved on-base skills with 107 strikeouts and 51 walks between both levels. He's a left-handed hitter with a strong swing who consistently gets the bat head to the ball. He has a feel for the strike zone and raw power to all fields, but he is not close to maturity. His hit tool has solid-to-average potential. He mashes right-handed pitching.
His defense is only average, but enough for either corner outfield position. He has present athleticism but his speed is fringy. He won’t need to be great defensively if his bat translates as hoped. His on-base skills will be challenged at a higher level.
He should open the season at Triple-A but could be the first of their position prospects to debut in 2013.
2013 Opening Day Level: Triple-A
4. OF Aaron Hicks
7 of 10Position: OF
DOB: 10/2/1989 (Age: 23)
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 185
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Signed: First round, 2008 (Woodrow HS, Calif.)
ETA: 2013
Scouting Notes: He improved across the board last season, his first at Double-A. He narrowed the gap between his excellent athleticism and baseball skills. He batted .286/.384/.460 with 45 extra-base hits and 32 stolen bases in 129 games.
He's a toolsy switch-hitter with above-average raw power and solid on-base skills. He has more present gap-power than home-run power and bat speed from both sides of the plate. His left-handed swing is more vulnerable to velocity.
His hit tool is the biggest question. It may only be average in the major leagues. His above-average speed makes him a consistent base stealer. His approach lacks aggression which hinders his power.
His athleticism and speed profile favorably in center field. His plus arm plays up even more at the position. If his offensive skills continue to improve, Hicks could find himself in the major leagues by the end of the 2013 season. If his bat develops as hoped, he may be able to shift to right field and accommodate Byron Buxton in center field a few years down the road.
2013 Opening Day Level: Triple-A
3. RHP Alex Meyer
8 of 10Position: RHP
DOB: 1/3/1990 (Age: 23)
Height/Weight: 6’9”, 220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: First round, 2011 by Nationals (Kentucky)
ETA: 2014
Scouting Notes: This 6’9” right-hander has a massive frame and long limbs and shows body control and repeatable mechanics uncommon in players his size. He throws everything on a steep downhill plane and was impressive and showed more command than expected in full-season debut in 2012. He registered a 3.10 ERA with 107/34 K/BB in 90 innings at Low-A Hagerstown, followed by 2.31 ERA with 32/11 K/BB at High-A Potomac before reaching innings limit.
His fastball is difficult to barrel. It registers between 93-97 mph and can flirt with triple-digits in shorter stints. His plus slider has a sharp, wipeout break. His changeup showed signs of being at least average last season and will need to continue to develop to remain a starter.
His ceiling is as a No. 2 or 3 starter, his floor as a late-inning, high-leverage bullpen arm.
2013 Opening Day Level: High-A
2. OF Byron Buxton
9 of 10Position: OF
DOB: 12/18/1993 (Age: 19)
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 188
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: First round, 2012 (Appling County HS, Ga.)
ETA: 2016
Scouting Notes: The No. 2 overall draft pick in 2012, Buxton had a good, but not great, professional debut across two rookie levels. He batted .248/.344/.448 with 19 extra-base hits, 11 stolen bases and 41/19 K/BB in 48 games. He has elite athleticism and one of the best collection of tools among all prospects. He's a high-ceiling, high-risk prospect. His plus-plus speed plays on both sides of the ball.
His plus bat speed yields plus raw power. He has loose wrists with quick-twitch muscles. His approach and hit tool are both raw. He may need a few additional years of experience in the low minors. Full-season pitching should be a healthy challenge. He will have to simplify his swing to handle better velocity and secondary pitches.
His plus-plus speed gives him excellent range and a chance to remain in center field. His plus arm strength is more than enough for the position. He should be above-average defensively overall. He's a potentially elite player but comes with extreme risk. He has been lauded for his makeup.
2013 Opening Day Level: Low-A
1. 3B Miguel Sano
10 of 10Position: 3B
DOB: 5/11/1993 (Age: 19)
Height/Weight: 6’3”, 195
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Oct., 2009 (Dominican Republic)
ETA: 2015
Scouting Notes: In his full-season debut at Low-A Beloit, Sano batted .258/.373/.521 in 129 games as a 19-year-old. Of his 118 hits, 60 were for extra bases, including 28 home runs. He struck out 144 times, but showed on-base potential with 80 walks and eight hit-by-pitches. He has the best raw power in the minor leagues and present power frequency. His powerful swing generates backspin that carries to all fields, but has some holes and results in too many swings-and-misses. Still, he has the bat speed and strength to be successful. He may never hit for average, but the power is legit.
His defense at the hot corner is worrisome because, well, it’s pretty bad. He has present athleticism despite his 6’3”, 230-pound frame, but will likely lose a step. He may ultimately settle in right field or (in a worst-case scenario) at first base. He has slow feet, choppy actions and plus arm strength. He can be inaccurate due to lazy footwork.
He's a big-time prospect with one monster tool (power), but a lot of inconsistencies and weaknesses to improve upon in upcoming seasons.
2013 Opening Day Level: High-A
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