Indy was the worst team in the NFL last season. This year, it’s a playoff contender. Kansas City isn’t nearly as stable an organization as Indianapolis, but it’d love to mimic its success (who wouldn’t?).
Here’s everything you need to know about this Week 16 matchup.
Where: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
When: Sunday, December 23rd at 1 p.m. ET
Listen: Sirius XM Radio: 113 or online at Audio Pass
Will Indianapolis cover the spread?
Spread: Indianapolis (-6), according to Odds Shark
Kansas City has lost 12 out of 14 games this season. And in only two out of their 12 losses did the Chiefs lose by less than six points.
I like those odds for the Colts to cover.
Over/Under: 43, according to Odds Shark
Every point that the Chiefs score nowadays is precious. Only once in the past five weeks have they put up double-digit points.
Andrew Luck is awesome, but not awesome enough to carry the scoreboard over 43 points by himself.
Indianapolis S Tom Zbikowski is questionable with a knee injury.
Indianapolis DE Dwight Freeney is probable with an ankle injury.
Indianapolis LB Jerrell Freeman is probable with a thumb injury.
Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck is probable with a knee injury.
Indianapolis LB Kavell Connor is out with a hamstring injury.
Indianapolis RB Delone Carter is out with an ankle injury.
Indianapolis TE Coby Fleener is probable with an ankle injury.
Kansas City TE Tony Moeaki is questionable with a head injury.
Kansas City WR Jon Baldwin is probable with an illness.
Kansas City QB Brady Quinn is probable with a rib injury.
Fantasy Big Plays
Indianapolis: WR Reggie Wayne
Don’t shy away from starting Wayne because the Chiefs pass defense is ranked seventh in the NFL. That’s only considering the yards that they surrender.
Kansas City also allows the ninth-most touchdowns and opposing QBs to average the highest passer ratings in the league against its defense.
Kansas City: RB Jamaal Charles
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the only player on the entire Chiefs roster with an ounce of fantasy value remaining.
Charles has managed to stay relevant despite the scrubs handing him the football and blocking for him. He’s averaging 4.9 yards a pop and gained over 100 yards on the ground in three out of the last four weeks.
Keys to an Indianapolis Win
That one time Charles didn’t go over 100 yards the last four weeks came against the Oakland Raiders this past Sunday. He was held to just 10 yards on nine carries.
Indy should follow the Raiders’ game plan (take that in for a moment, those words aren’t typed very often). If the Colts load the box and forced Brady Quinn/Ricky Stanzi to beat them, Kansas City is doomed.
Keys to a Kansas City Win
KC somehow, someway, managed to beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 15. In that game, Quinn completed 19 of 23 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns.
So basically, for the Chiefs to win, their QB needs to have the best game of his life.
The Chiefs would actually hurt themselves in the long run if they win and their triumph costs them Geno Smith. Indy, on the other hand, is genuinely hungry for the W with a wild-card berth within reach.
And did I mention the Colts are the superior talent?
David Daniels is a featured columnist at Bleacher Report and a syndicated writer.