Johnny Manziel Wins Heisman Trophy: Odds He Wins 2 Before Going to the NFL

John Rozum@Rozum27Correspondent IDecember 8, 2012

Now that Johnny Manziel has won the Heisman Trophy despite only being a redshirt freshman, what about the subsequent years?

After all, Ohio State running back Archie Griffin is college football's lone two-time Heisman winner, and few have come close to taking home the award a second time since. We must also take into account that Griffin won his his Heismans in his junior and senior seasons.

Considering that Manziel has much more time remaining to become one of college football's most decorated players, the odds of a second Heisman Trophy are quite realistic. Tim Tebow of the Florida Gators was a three-time Heisman finalist, but didn't win it after his sophomore campaign.

So what are the odds for Manziel next season and potentially thereafter? Well, let's break down Griffin and Tebow and figure out the chances.


Archie Griffin: RB, Ohio State

The better of Griffin's two Heisman campaigns came in 1974. That year, the former Ohio State running back accounted for 1,620 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns as the Buckeyes finished 10-2 and won the Big Ten title. Ohio State repeated as conference champions a year later.

Griffin won the Heisman again in 1975, but did not perform as impressively, finishing with 1,615 total yards and a mere four touchdowns. Not to mention his yards-per-carry average dropped from 6.9 in to 5.5.

For as much as Griffin deserved to win back-to-back Heismans, it's obvious his senior season was not as dominant as junior season. As we'll learn with Tebow, the same can be said for the former Gator.

Tim Tebow: QB, Florida

When Tebow won the Heisman Trophy in 2007, the quarterback amassed a total of 4,181 total yards and accounted for 55 touchdowns.

That kind of production is virtually impossible to replicate.

Nevertheless, Tebow amassed 3,419 total yards and 42 touchdowns in 2008, and 3,805 total yards and 35 touchdowns in 2009. That is great consistency, especially in the SEC of the 21st century.

Still, his last two seasons were not as overly dominant as his Heisman campaign. That year, he attempted more passes than in either of the next two seasons and still only threw six interceptions. He also threw and ran for more touchdowns and averaged 4.3 yards a carry, a number he only eclipsed when he was a part-time player as a freshman.

Another reason Tebow remained in the Heisman talk, though, was because the Gators were national title contenders in '08 and '09.

Odds For Manziel

The man totaled 4,600 yards and scored 43 touchdowns.

And Texas A&M still has a bowl game to play. Therefore, his numbers will certainly increase. The odds of Manziel repeating, however, will likely be dictated by how well his Heisman competitors perform and his ability to live up to expectations.

We also have to factor in the loss of senior wide receiver Ryan Swope and the potential loss of junior offensive linemen Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews, who could declare for the NFL draft. The two linemen are among the best prospects in the draft, so not having either on the edge of the pocket could adversely affect Manziel's play.

Obviously, the flip side of that would be for both to return, which would significantly enhance the A&M offense.

Even when you factor in all the elements of Heisman history, plus the quality of SEC defenses, don't be surprised if Manziel doesn't win another Heisman.

Without question, another campaign such as the one he had in 2012 would help his cause. But producing on that level in college football's toughest conference will only be more difficult in the seasons to come as SEC defense gear up for ''Johnny Football.''

Odds: 1 in 25


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