If we are going to base my fearless forecast on statistics and probabilities, then I would rather not write.
Scientifically, the San Antonio Spurs don't have much of a chance to win it all in 2009, considering the presence of the almighty Los Angeles Lakers, the defending champions Boston Celtics and the now feared Cleveland Cavaliers.
Kobe and his golden-yellow army in L.A. are snatching victories here and there.
Boston's big three are still as dominant as ever.
Meanwhile, LeBron James and his Cavaliers are constantly piercing their way to the top.
Even Dwight Howard and his fellow sorcerers in Orlando magically catapulted their team to an overall fourth place in the entire league.
Why then, am I insisting that the Spurs will still bring home the bacon despite being nowhere near Boston, Cleveland, Orlando and the Lakers?
The answer is something I personally call an "Analytical Gambler's Superstition"
This is something experts won't believe, something fans don't care about.
An unwritten reason indeed. It is a superstition, but based on factual analysis.
Scrutinizing 2004, 2006, and 2008 Spurs
Observe how the Spurs lost in even numbered NBA seasons.
In 2004, there was the Derek Fisher factor.
In Game Five of their best of seven series, Fisher made a miraculous game winning shot with barely 0.4 seconds remaining to give the Lakers a 3-2 series lead and they eventually sealed the deal in Game Six.
By the start of Game Six, the Spurs were already emotionally drained from the previous game's outcome.
Extremely bad luck for the Spurs, and extremely good luck for the opposing team.
In 2006, there was the Manu Ginobili foul factor.
In Game Seven of the semis between the Spurs and the Mavs, the Spurs were leading by three in the closing seconds when Ginobili committed the worst foul of his life.
He fouled Dirk Nowitzki, the Mav's deadliest shooter, as he was attempting a lay up. The result was a three point play and the game went into overtime. Eventually, the Spurs lost.
Again, extremely bad luck for the Spurs and extremely good luck for the opponent.
In 2008, there was the delayed airplane flight factor.
Remember how the Spurs won a hard-fought seventh game against New Orleans during the semis of last season?
They were supposed to immediately go to L.A. to square off against the Lakers. What happened next was the most unfortunate airplane delay that made San Antonio's players sleep in the plane.
Needless to say, the players weren't able to sleep well as they are used to sleeping in lavish hotel rooms and not in an airplane.
As a result, they squandered a 20-point lead to the Lakers in the first game as they were clearly exhausted in the second half, probably because of lack of sleep.
Again and again, extremely bad luck for the Spurs and extremely good luck for their rivals.
Examining 2003, 2005, and 2007 Spurs
Now, lets take a peek at the odd numbered NBA seasons wherein the Spurs won the title.
Not this time, dynamic duo. This is an odd numbered year. The Spurs will beat you black and blue.
Eventually, the Spurs did beat the Lakers and eventually claimed the Larry O' Brien trophy.
Bad luck for the Lakers, great luck for the Spurs.
Moving forward to 2005, the Spurs were up against the seemingly impenetrable Detroit Pistons who were considered the league's best defensive team that year.
When it is written by fate, no amount of defense could stop things from happening. Thus, the Spurs went on to win the championship via a seventh-game win over Detroit.
Bad luck for Detroit, great luck for the Spurs.
We need not mention 2007 here. That year was probably the luckiest for the Spurs as they swept the finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Despite LeBron James's presence, it was still bad luck for Cleveland and great luck for the Spurs.
What about 2009?
Consider that the core of the Spurs team since 2003 are still in San Antonio this year.
Age factor? Yes, but look at Duncan, Parker and Ginobili's output this season before you judge. Plus,the star players of opposing teams are getting old as well.
Opponent factor? Yes, but the Spurs have faced seemingly insurmountable odds before in 2003, yet won it anyway.
Therefore, I reiterate my claim based on my "Analytical Gambler's Superstition" that the San Antonio Spurs will be this year's NBA champions.