A Closer Look at The Career Quarterback Ratings of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady

Since the 2007 season, a lot has been made by many of Tom Brady’s fans about career quarterback rating.  It is no coincidence of course that career quarterback rating suddenly became meaningful to the conversation after Tom Brady’s jumped from 88.4 to 93.0 in the course of a single season (currently 92.9 after 11 pass attempts in 2008). 

Suddenly, Brady’s career quarterback rating of 92.9 looks a lot more similar to Peyton Manning’s career quarterback rating of 94.7. 

After all we are now talking about a relatively marginal difference of 1.8 rating points. While I, as a Colts fan, am willing to admit that the difference of 1.8 rating points isn’t a very big margin, I do feel that those career averages are quite misleading for a number of reasons. 

Before I get into those reasons though, let me say up front that I do not consider quarterback rating to be a very good rating system to begin with since it does not take sacks or fumbles into consideration and in my opinion places too much emphasis on completion percentage at the expense of better statistics like yards per attempt.

So why would I argue that Brady and Manning’s career quarterback rating averages can be misleading? 

Well for starters, Peyton Manning started from day one as a rookie while Tom Brady had the luxury of learning from the bench for a year before getting thrown to the wolves.  Clearly, the difference between a rookie quarterback and simply first year starter is tremendous. 

Just ask guys like Carson Palmer, Phillip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers, who had very strong numbers in their first years starting after benefiting from years of experience on the sideline. 

I remember people being extremely impressed with big first years from true rookie quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan, but I don’t recall the same kind of acknowledgement and wonder when it came to Palmer, Rivers, and Rodgers. 

There’s a reason for that obviously: one is much rarer and difficult of an accomplishment than the other. 

While Manning did set a handful of rookie passing records including those for completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns, obviously his 71.2 quarterback rating as a rookie is not representative of his career. 

If you’re still not convinced, consider that Brady’s QB rating remained very consistent for his first three seasons as a starter (86.5, 85.7, 85.9) while Manning’s skyrocketed in his second and third year (71.2, 90.7, 94.7). 

Thinking a player like Manning, who has such a reputation for film study and preparation, would not have benefited from an extra season to learn on the sideline is just preposterous.

Manning’s career veteran quarterback rating is 97.3 compared to his own career quarterback rating of 94.7 and Brady’s career veteran quarterback rating of 93.0.

Another problem with career quarterback rating, which becomes even more troublesome when comparing players from entirely different eras, is the realization that league averages for QB rating change over time. 

One notable point in recent history has occured since the 2004 season. 

It was during the offseason prior to the 2004 season that the league’s referees were asked if they had been enforcing the rule about no contact with a receiver past five yards any differently as of late. 

A drop in offensive production was noticed and the league’s officials admitted that they were not enforcing the rule the same way as they have in the past, which included after the rule was similarly re-enforced in the 1990's. 

The rule was re-enforced and 2004 became a banner year for passing with quarterbacks benefiting from the re-enforcement ever since. 

Another such trend goes back to the 2007 season and continues through the present.  Offensive holding penalties have been called significantly less since the 2007 season compared to seasons prior.

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