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At the end of his career, Konerko should top Bagwell in many offensive categories.
The closest comparison (as far as I can tell) of a Hall-eligible first baseman to Konerko is Jeff Bagwell.
Bagwell played 15 seasons with the Houston Astros, earning an MVP and five All-Star nods while collecting 449 home runs and 1529 RBI.
On average, that is only three more home runs and 14 more RBI per season than what Konerko is putting up. There is a large gap in batting average (.297 to .283) and slugging (.948 to .858), but overall the numbers stack up, especially when the lineups are taken into consideration.
Something else to take into consideration is that, although he had a poor finish to the 2012 season, Konerko has put his best stretch of baseball together the last three years while Bagwell went the other way his final three.
If the numbers are comparable, then so should their HOF chances.
In 2011, Bagwell received 41.7 percent of the vote from the BBWAA, while in 2012 he netted 56.0. Just as the voting process normally plays out, Bagwell is getting more votes as the number of years he is on the ballot increases.
Expect Bagwell to make it to the HOF in the next few years and then for Konerko to go through the same waiting process when he is eligible.