Game 1 (Camden Yards): CC Sabathia vs. Jason Hammel
Game 2 (Camden Yards): Andy Pettitte vs. Wei-Yin Chen
Game 3 (Yankee Stadium): Hiroki Kuroda vs. Miguel Gonzalez
Game 4* (Yankee Stadium): Phil Hughes vs. Joe Saunders/Chris Tillman
Game 5* (Yankee Stadium): CC Sabathia vs. Jason Hammel
* if necessary
Sabathia: 200 IP, 3.38 ERA, 124 ERA+, 197 K, 1.14 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 4.48 K/BB, 3.33 FIP, 3.20 xFIP
Pettitte: 75.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 146 ERA+, 69 K, 1.14 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.29 K/BB, 3.48 FIP, 3.27 xFIP
Kuroda: 219.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 126 ERA+, 167 K, 1.17 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.27 K/BB, 3.86 FIP, 3.67 xFIP
Hughes: 191.1 IP, 4.23 ERA, 99 ERA+, 165 K, 1.27 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, 4.56 FIP, 4.35 xFIP
Sabathia dealt with elbow problems for much of the year but still had a solid season. He led the league in K/BB ratio and finished off the season with eight innings in each of his last three starts, to a 1.50 ERA. In his career he has dominated at Camden Yards and against the Orioles.
Pettitte came out of retirement and was pitching outstandingly until a comebacker off his ankle kept him out from July until September. He came back and had a 1.62 ERA in his last three starts. He should be pitching without a pitch count restriction.
Girardi decided to switch Pettitte and Kuroda in the order, so Kuroda gets the start at Yankee Stadium, where he has a 2.72 ERA. The veteran right-hander has been huge coming over from the National League, and has carried the rotation after the injuries to Sabathia and Pettitte.
Still, he has set a career high in starts and innings pitched, so Girardi may have decided to make the switch to Kuroda gets an extra two days off, as he last pitched in the season finale against Boston, the AL East clincher.
Phil Hughes has been inconsistent all season, as shown by his 16-13 record. He has turned in a lot of good starts and a lot of god-awful ones. The key for him is keeping the ball in the park, but he gave up 35 HRs this year.
He led the league in fly ball rate and was second in the majors in HR/9. That could be a problem at Yankee Stadium against the Orioles lineup. Ironically, he has pitched about a full run lower at home. Still, he's about as good a No. 4 starter as there is in the playoffs.
Hammel: 118 IP, 3.43 ERA, 123 ERA+, 113 K, 1.24 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.69 K/BB, 3.29 FIP, 3.46 xFIP
Chen: 192.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 105 ERA+, 154 K, 1.26 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.70 K/BB, 4.42 FIP, 4.34 xFIP
Gonzalez: 105.1 IP, 3.25 ERA, 130 ERA+, 77 K, 1.21 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.20 K/BB, 4.38 FIP, 4.63 xFIP
Saunders*: 44.2 IP, 3.63 ERA, 117 ERA+, 23 K, 1.28 WHIP, 4.6 K/9, 2.88 K/BB, 3.77 FIP, 4.44 xFIP
Tillman: 86 IP, 2.93 ERA, 144 ERA+, 66 K, 1.05 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.75 K/BB, 4.25 FIP, 4.34 xFIP
Hammel was easily the best starter for the Orioles this season. He came over in a trade with the Rockies for Jeremy Guthrie. His strikeout rate has jumped by a lot.
However, he has dealt with a right knee injury and has pitched just 11.2 innings since the All-Star Break and hasn't pitched since September 11. This could be a serious factor, but Hammel has pitched well in three starts vs. the Yankees
Chen had a solid first season in the United States after pitching eight seasons in Japan. However, the Taiwanese left-hander gives a ton of flyballs and home runs, finishing sixth in the AL in FB% and ninth in the league in HR/9. This could be a huge red flag at Camden Yards against the best home run hitting team in baseball.
Miguel Gonzalez came over as a minor league free agent and has pitched well in 18 appearances and 15 starts. However, his peripherals suggest he's been more lucky than good. Like Chen, he gives up a ton of flyballs. He would be seventh in the AL in flyball percentage if he qualified.
It hasn't been announced who will be the Orioles' Game 4 starter, but my guess is it will be easier Chris Tillman, who has pitched really well in a short sample size this season, or Joe Saunders, who lifted the Orioles into the ALDS by pitched 5.2 inning of 1-run ball against the Rangers.