Boston Celtics: Odds of Each Player Remaining Healthy for Full 2012-2013 Season

Chris Lawrence@@C_law90Featured ColumnistSeptember 19, 2012

Boston Celtics: Odds of Each Player Remaining Healthy for Full 2012-2013 Season

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    Injuries have heavily plagued the Boston Celtics in recent seasons. Though they will have a much deeper roster for the 2012-13 NBA season, will the Celtics be at full strength come playoff time?

    There are a number of players on this Celtics roster who are bound to miss some games.

    Still, it begs the question: What are each player's odds of staying healthy for the entire season?

    Note: Dionte Christmas and Jamar Smith are not included in this list because their contracts are only partially guaranteed. Kris Joseph also has a partially guaranteed deal but is included because he is a draft selection.

Kris Joseph: 80 Percent

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    Joseph suffered a hyper-extended knee during NBA Summer League play in July. The injury wasn't serious and the Syracuse alum appears to be back at full strength as he competes for a roster spot.

    Assuming Joseph makes this team, his chances of being healthy for the entire season are relatively good. This is mainly because he won't be seeing much court time during his rookie season.

    Because Joseph's knee injury was not a major concern, it's reasonable to say he has an 80 percent chance of finishing the season unscathed.

Fab Melo: 80 Percent

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    The same goes for Fab Melo. For a player who is bound to spend most the season in the D-League, it's difficult to gauge if he'll remain healthy for the full season.

    Melo suffered a bruised hand during the summer league but, as in the case of Joseph, it was a minor injury and does not foreshadow anything serious.

    Eighty percent is a fair projection. It accounts for any injuries he may suffer in practice or in the D-League while also considering how little he will play at the NBA level.

Jason Collins: 10 Percent

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    Continuing with the bottom of the lineup, center  Jason Collins will play more than Joseph or Melo.

    As a third-string center, Collins will likely see 8-10 minutes per game but could be thrust into a larger role if an aging Kevin Garnett and an injury-prone Chris Wilcox are forced to miss time.

    But the problem is that Collins is injury-prone himself.

    During his three seasons with the Atlanta Hawks, Collins suffered moderate injuries in each of those seasons. Considering Collins is not an everyday player, that is anything but encouraging.

    Given his recent track record, Collins has a 10 percent chance of being healthy for the entire season.

Keyon Dooling: 30 Percent

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    Energetic guard Keyon Dooling will see less minutes this season than he did last season.

    Dooling missed a sizeable chunk of the 2012-2013 season with a hip injury and initially struggled to regain his rhythm upon returning to the lineup.

    It's no secret that Dooling was signed for his leadership and veteran presence in the locker room. But he was also signed to give the Celtics some extra backcourt depth.

    It's hard to imagine Dooling remaining healthy for the entire season. He's bound to suffer a minor injury somewhere along the way. Peg him at 30 percent.

Chris Wilcox: 0 Percent

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    Wilcox is a high-energy big man who is aggressive under the basket can run the floor remarkably well.

    He's been injured at some point in nearly every season of his career and suffered nagging injuries at the beginning of last year.

    Wilcox's season ended in March when he was diagnosed with an enlarged aorta. After a successful surgery, he will get another go-around with the Celtics this season.

    If healthy, Wilcox will continue to be a force off the Celtics bench. But don't expect him to escape this season without suffering some sort of injury.

    Wilcox will definitely miss some time this season. It's just a matter of how much and when.

Jared Sullinger: 20 Percent

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    Jared Sullinger fell to the Celtics at No. 21 in the NBA Draft. The 6'9" forward out of Ohio State could prove to be a steal, but his health is a bit concerning.

    Sullinger was red-flagged during pre-draft workouts as having a possible career-threatening injury. As it turns out, an MRI revealed that he had a herniated disk in his back.

    The Celtics don't believe that this will be a long-term issue, but it's concerning nonetheless.

    Expect Sullinger to miss at least miss a few games this season. That back could give him some real discomfort while he's battling with other bigs in the post. 20 percent.

Jeff Green: 20 Percent

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    Jeff Green had been a picture of health for his entire career until an aortic aneurysm sidelined him for all of last season.

    However, Green has been cleared to play after undergoing heart surgery in January.

    Of course, Green's return is great news for Celtics fans. But there's always the risk of a setback, which would likely end his career.

    But assuming that his heart is no longer issue, Green is still likely to miss a few games here or there.

    As athletic and well-conditioned as he is, Green has not played in a real NBA game for well over a year. He might struggle to familiarize himself with the pace of game action, making him susceptible to some minor injuries. Put him down for 20 percent.

Courtney Lee: 80 Percent

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    Newly acquired guard/forward Courtney Lee will be the Celtics' starting shooting guard on opening night against the Miami Heat.

    Aside from suffering a sinus fracture—coincidentally against the Celtics—during the 2009 NBA Playoffs, Lee has a reputation for being consistently healthy.

    In four seasons, Lee has played 287 out of a possible 312 games.

    The 27-year-old guard will see a lot of minutes this season, and his durability could very well win out.

    It's fair to say Lee could miss a few games due to a minor injury, but there's an 80 percent chance he remains healthy for all of 2012-13.

Jason Terry: 95 Percent

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    In 13 NBA seasons, Celtics sixth man Jason Terry has only missed 25 career games. That is a remarkable statistic.

    Terry's reputation as an explosive scorer off the bench precedes him (16.1 points per game for his career) but his durability is what makes him a reliable threat night in and night out.

    Perhaps he'll miss a game or two (he's played at least 80 games nine times in his career).

    Regardless, you can put Terry down for 95 percent. He's good for it.

Avery Bradley: 0 Percent

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    This one is kind of a wash. At the very least, Bradley will miss the first month of the season after undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery last year.

    And not just one shoulder. Both shoulders.

    Clearly, he's going to need some time to recuperate.

    The Celtics felt Bradley's absence in last year's Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat. Without Bradley in the lineup, the Celtics weren't able to create easy scoring opportunities on the break—something Bradley did with his defense.

    Hopefully his R&R doesn't take too long, though. The Celtics will need Bradley's stifling on-the-ball-defensive prowess in order to really put the pressure on opposing guards.

Brandon Bass: 30 Percent

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    Brandon Bass is a durable NBA big. Though the 6'8", 250-pound forward missed seven games last season with a knee injury, Bass has been able to avoid serious injuries throughout his career.

    But playing under the basket and getting battered by opposing big men hurts his chances of being healthy for the entire season.

    Bass could miss around five games this season as a result of some sort of minor injury or injuries—nothing too concerning.

    A sprained ankle, a sore knee—those things come with the territory of being an NBA power forward.

    Bass is a bruiser, though. He'll put his nose to the grindstone and he definitely won't shy away from contact.

    Thirty percent accounts for Bass's durability while also considering his role as an NBA big who will be playing a lot of minutes for the Celtics this season—thus, he will endure a lot of wear and tear.

Rajon Rondo: 15 Percent

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    Rajon Rondo missed 13 games last season, the second-most of his career.

    But several of those games were merely precautionary as Doc Rivers wanted to give his banged-up point guard some rest going into the playoffs.

    Rondo misses games from time to time. It's merely a product of his aggressiveness as a player and his willingness to attack.

    Whether he's diving for a loose ball and jams his hand or drives into the lane and lands on his ankle the wrong way, Rondo is going to get hurt at some point.

    As long he only misses a game once in awhile, that's completely acceptable—as long as it's not a playoff game.

    While Rondo has never suffered a season-ending injury or anything of that magnitude, his chances of finishing the season without shedding a little blood are slim. 15 percent.

Paul Pierce: 5 Percent

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    Paul Pierce is at that age when injuries are inevitable.

    The 34-year-old forward suffered a knee injury during the 2012 postseason but did not miss any games as a result.

    Pierce only missed five games during the regular season, which is normal for him.

    A player who is in his mid 30s and plays upwards of 30 minutes per game will suffer a few bumps and bruises over the course of an NBA season.

    But as long as they are nothing more than bumps and bruises—and as long as his knee is not an issue—Pierce's performance should be close to what it normally is.

    Still, he will not be healthy for the full season. Pierce has endured 14 years of wear and tear and this year will be no different. 5 percent.

Kevin Garnett: 5 Percent

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    Similar to Pierce, Garnett is likely to be sidelined at some point during the season.

    But that doesn't mean he will miss 20 games, or even 10 games.

    Garnett is coming off a stellar season, capped off by a playoff performance that proved the Big Ticket is still very much on top of his game.

    It's difficult to imagine a player who was nearly a 20-10 guy in the playoffs last season experiencing a drastic decline in production.

    Garnett has a five percent chance of remaining healthy for the entire season. Doc Rivers will be able to limit his minutes, so he won't suffer a major injury.

    Rather, he will merely be hobbled by an injury now and then. At 36 years old, that's expected.