Andrew Luck: Reasonable Expectations for No. 1 Pick's Rookie Season

The hype surrounding Indianapolis Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck has been ridiculous. He is a special player, but still a rookie starting at quarterback in the NFL, and expectations must be measured.

Luck is the most promising passing prospect since Peyton Manning, but even the great former Colt struggled at times in his rookie season.

Getting picked first overall already comes with lofty expectations, but the circumstances in which Luck landed the starting spot will place more pressure on the Stanford standout than any rookie has ever had.

The Colts traded away the franchise cornerstone, a future Hall-of-Famer and the player most similar to Luck in order to clear the future for the 22-year-old. The storylines from this move are endless, and Luck would do well to avoid SportsCenter throughout his rookie season in order to stay focused.  

If Luck lives up to his potential, it is reasonable to expect him to do slightly than Manning did in his rookie season. Coming out of Tennessee in 1998, Manning set rookie records by passing for 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns. However, he completed just 56.7 percent of his 575 attempts and threw 28 interceptions.

Even as a rookie, Manning was not very mobile, whereas Luck ran the 40-yard dash in 4.67 seconds at the NFL Combine. In today’s NFL—and with plenty of questions on the offensive line—Luck’s mobility will significantly help him, and he may be able to improve on some of Manning’s numbers.

Another useful comparison is Cam Newton’s impressive season last year. Luck is not nearly as dangerous a runner as Newton, but he also projects as a better passing prospect. Newton broke Manning’s yardage record by recording 4,051 passing yards while completing 60 percent of his attempts and throwing 21 touchdowns compared to 17 interceptions.

Luck will get nowhere close to Newton’s marks of 706 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground, but it would not be all that surprising to see him eclipse some of Newton’s passing numbers.

The NFL has turned into a passing league; now that the Colts have an elite talent under center, they will certainly look to turn the ball loose frequently. In addition, their options in the running game are nothing to get excited about, leaving Luck as their best offensive weapon.

He will get plenty of chances to throw, and he will likely challenge Sam Bradford’s rookie record of 590 attempts.

Luck will also toss his fair share of interceptions. No top passing talent who has started immediately and thrown often has been able to post an impressive touchdown-to-interception ratio as a rookie. Besides Manning and Newton, Bradford had 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, while Matthew Stafford had 13 touchdowns and 20 interceptions in 10 games.

Even though he will throw some picks, Luck is an incredibly accurate passer and he has a chance to have an impressive pass completion percentage. He completed over 70 percent of his attempts during both his junior and senior seasons at Stanford, whereas Manning’s highest mark in this category was 64.2 percent during his sophomore campaign at Tennessee.

Ultimately, Luck is a phenomenal talent who will likely have one of the most outstanding seasons a rookie quarterback has had in league history. However, a great season by rookie standards will still feature plenty of mistakes.

Reasonable expectations for Luck include estimates of 4,000 yards passing, a 62 percent completion percentage to go with 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. It is unlikely he will record better statistics, but this will be an impressive set of numbers for his inaugural NFL season.