New York Yankees: Playing Overrated or Underrated with Current Bombers Stars
Fans of the New York Yankees don't like it when other fans and writers refer to one of the Bronx Bombers as being "overrated."
To that end, they're just like any other population of fans. The key difference is that Yankee fans have to put up with people calling their favorite players overrated a lot more often. It's because people hate the Yankees, you see.
It's also because, in some instances, it's true. There are some overrated Yankees out there.
Oh, calm down, Yankees fans. If it makes you feel any better, there are some underrated Yankees too. There are also some Yankees who are rated perfectly.
The tricky part is figuring out which description best describes each Yankees star. It can be done, though. The only way to do it is the same way that Ash conquered the deadites in Army of Darkness: with science.
Which, in this situation, means using numbers.
Let's give it a whirl.
Note: All stats are from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. And please understand that we're only going to be discussing "stars." No Boone Logans or Dewayne Wises.
Mark Teixeira, 1B
1 of 13The Mark Teixeira of today is not the Mark Teixeira of a few years ago. He's only good for a batting average of around .250, and he hasn't posted an OPS over .900 since his first year with the Yankees in 2009.
It was bound to happen. Hitters tend to hit a wall of sorts once they get into their 30s, and that's what's happened with Teixeira over the last two-plus seasons. His bat has slowed down and much of his pop has disappeared.
He still has more pop than your average bear, however. Teixeira was able to top 30 home runs each of the last two seasons despite relatively low batting averages and on-base percentages, and he's on pace to hit 30 home runs again this season.
The Yankees can count on him for home runs, and they can also count on him to play above-average defense at first. There are a lot of clubs out there that would love to say they can count on the same from their own first baseman.
This doesn't mean Teixeira is as valuable a player as he used to be. FanGraphs tells us that the only first baseman in baseball to post a higher WAR than Teixeira between 2004 and 2009 was none other than Albert Pujols. Since the start of the 2010 season, however, he ranks sixth among first basemen in WAR.
The translation there is that he's still good, but not elite.
You get the sense that most Yankee fans understand this. I for one haven't come across many fans who will fight to the death for the sake of Teixeira's honor, and it's worth noting that Yankee fans haven't voted Teixeira into the All-Star Game since 2009. That's something they very much have the power to do if they are so inclined.
This verdict would have been a bigger shocker a couple years ago, but not now.
Verdict: Rated perfectly
Robinson Cano, 2B
2 of 13It's hard to believe that Robinson Cano has been in the big leagues since 2005. It's even harder to believe that he's had exactly one bad season since he broke into the league.
That was in 2008. Cano hit .306/.353/.488 with 19 home runs and 97 RBI the season before in 2007, which was a follow-up to a 2006 campaign in which he hit .342. Between the two years, FanGraphs calculates that he posted a WAR of 7.4, fourth-highest among MLB second basemen.
In '08, however, Cano hit just .271/.305/.410, and he struggled on defense the whole season. He posted a WAR of 0.3, dead-last among qualified MLB second basemen.
Cano has been on a mission ever since then. From the start of the 2009 season until now, Cano has hit .314/.363/.536, and his defense has gotten better every year. He's on pace to have his finest season yet this year. He has a very good chance to finish the season hitting well over .300 with upwards of 35 home runs and 100 RBI.
Among MLB second basemen, only Ben Zobrist has a higher WAR than Cano since the start of the 2009 season, and he's not even a primary second baseman.
In 2012, Cano's 4.3 WAR is far and away the best mark among MLB second basemen. This is largely due to his offense, but this is also the first year in which I'd say his glove has been as good as his bat.
Yankee fans know how good Cano is, but he still manages to get overshadowed by some of his teammates on the national landscape. People still think of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez when they think of the Yankees before they think of Cano.
And that ain't right. He's the best second baseman in the business.
Verdict: Underrated
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
3 of 13It doesn't matter whether you consult FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference.com. Both sites have Alex Rodriguez among the top 20 players of all time in terms of WAR.
And he still has a few good years left.
Actually, check that. There's no guarantee that the years he has left are going to qualify as "good."
A-Rod's best days are clearly behind him. He's been getting a little worse every year since he signed a massive contract to return to the Yankees after the 2007 season, hitting .282 with an .881 OPS over the last four-plus seasons.
He's been better than most third basemen during the span, mind you. FanGraphs has his WAR since the start of the 2008 season calculated at 20.3, seventh-highest among qualified MLB third basemen. He's no longer great, but he's at least better than average.
The bigger question where A-Rod is concerned is just how great he was to begin with. He's admitted that he used PEDs when he was with the Texas Rangers between 2001 and 2003, and his 162-game average for those three seasons included a .305 batting average, a 1.011 OPS, 53 home runs and 132 RBI.
Ever since, his 162-game average includes a .293 average, a .931 OPS, 40 home runs and 127 RBI. Those numbers are slightly skewed by the outstanding seasons he enjoyed in 2005 and 2007.
It's a lot harder to come across A-Rod defenders than it used to be. Nowadays, Yankee fans are just as likely to agree with you when you say he shouldn't bat cleanup ever again as they are to tell you you're an idiot. I consider this to be a step forward.
Still, his apologists are out there, and it is to them that I dedicate this verdict.
Verdict: Overrated
Note: Before you use the "one man's opinion" line, I recommend you check out a recent poll from Sports Illustrated.
Derek Jeter, SS
4 of 13Anybody who has read my work before will know that I don't think Derek Jeter should have started the All-Star Game at short for the American League this season. For that matter, I'm not convinced he should have been there at all.
I'll grant that he was an All-Star for the month of April, in which he hit .389/.433/.579 with four home runs and 16 runs scored in 22 games. Ever since, however, he's hit .279/.325/.351 with three home runs and 31 runs scored in 61 games.
So for two-thirds of the season, he's been, at best, an average shortstop. In the field, he's been well below-average. FanGraphs has him rated as the worst defensive shortstop in the majors.
But arguing about the present is only half the battle where Jeter is concerned. At this point, the question is less about how good he is now, and more about how good his career has been.
Is he the greatest shortstop of all time?
Um...no.
In terms of WAR, that honor belongs to Honus Wagner by a long shot. Jeter is up there, but his lack of power production and his shoddy defense (his Gold Gloves are a joke) combine to keep him a few levels below the top of the totem pole.
He's definitely one of the top-five shortstops of all time, but not No. 1.
It's at this point that people love to argue about his postseason heroics. And this is a fair point, for Jeter is a five-time champion and a career .307 hitter in 152 playoff games. He was a World Series hero in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2009.
His postseason track record isn't perfect, however. I'm guessing Yankee fans would rather not remember his mediocre performances in the 1996 World Series, the 2001 World Series, the 2004 ALCS or the 2007 ALDS.
And besides, it's not like we're talking about a guy who single-handedly delivered five world championships to the city of New York. Baseball is not the same as basketball or football, sports in which one man can make a huge difference. Jeter's championship rings are team accomplishments more than they are personal accomplishments.
He's one of the all-time greats, but he's not as perfect as he's made out to be.
Verdict: Overrated
Brett Gardner, LF
5 of 13Am I stretching the definition of the term "star" to include Brett Gardner in this discussion?
Yeah, a little bit. I'm allowing it anyway because there's much to say about him, and all of it is good stuff.
This has been a lost season for Gardner. He's only played in nine games due to a bad elbow, and the latest word from Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com is that he won't return until July 27 at the earliest.
Gardner has been missed. The Yankees rank 25th in baseball in stolen bases, which counts as part of the reason why they've been so reliant on the home run ball to generate offense in 2012. With Gardner out of the lineup, they have significantly less flexibility.
Speed is about all Gardner brings to the table on offense, of course, so it's a good thing that he brings a lot of it. He stole a grand total of 96 bases between 2010 and 2011. Per FanGraphs, only Michael Bourn swiped more bags.
Gardner is more than just a speed merchant, though. What a lot of people don't realize is that he's one of the best defensive outfielders in the business. According to FanGraphs, Gardner led all of Major League Baseball with a UZR of 25.2, and only Austin Jackson had a better DRS.
It bears repeating that we're not talking about just outfielders here. We're talking about all defensive players.
Yet Gardner was not given a Gold Glove.
Sigh...I wish that award actually meant something.
Verdict: Underrated
Curtis Granderson, CF
6 of 13Curtis Granderson has gotten to be pretty good at hitting home runs since joining the Yankees. Even despite his slow start in 2010, he's still hit 88 home runs since the start of that season, according to FanGraphs.
The only players with more homers since the start of the 2010 season? How about Jose Bautista and Albert Pujols.
Pretty good company right there. And for that, Granderson gets a gold star. He also gets a gold star for stealing 25 bases while managing to maintain a .364 on-base percentage last season. He brought a ton of offensive value to the Yankees.
He's not doing the same thing this season. The home runs are there, as Granderson has already hit 23 so far in 2012. However, his batting average, OBP, slugging percentage and OPS have all dropped, and Granderson has only swiped six bags on the season.
That puts him on a pace to steal 10 or 11 bases this season. He should be stealing double that amount. At least.
Granderson is also having a rough go of things in the field. Per FanGraphs, he has the lowest UZR among all major league outfielders.
Granderson wasn't all that great in the outfield in 2011 either, but it was harder to notice because Gardner was playing alongside him. Granderson didn't have to worry about straying too far into left field to make plays.
He hasn't had that luxury this year, and it shows.
Granderson's defensive ineptitude and lack of action on the basepaths are key reasons why his WAR is down to 1.6 this season, according to FanGraphs. In all, 17 different American League outfielders have him beat in that category.
Yet Granderson was voted in as a starter in this year's All-Star Game.
Verdict: Overrated
Nick Swisher, RF
7 of 13Full disclosure: I'm a big Nick Swisher fan. A lot of people can't stand his goofy guy act, but I've never been able to fault him for having fun in his work.
He's also a solid baseball player. Since joining the Yankees in 2009, Swisher has compiled an .848 OPS while hitting 94 home runs and driving in 307 runs.
For a three-and-a-half-year sample size, those are some pretty solid numbers.
In fact, FanGraphs tells us that only three right fielders with at least 2,000 plate appearances since 2009 have posted a higher OPS than Swisher. Only Nelson Cruz, Jay Bruce and Jose Bautista have hit more home runs. Only Bautista, Jason Kubel and Hunter Pence have driven in more runs.
The almighty WAR statistic tells us that Swisher checks in as the seventh-most valuable right fielder in baseball since 2009.
He's not quite up to that level of performance this season. His OBP has declined quite a bit from where it was last season, and his fielding numbers aren't very strong either. Hence the reason he ranks 16th among right fielders in WAR this season.
Swisher has been trending in this direction for a couple years now. Maybe that's why he shows up in the No. 6 spot in Sports Illustrated's overrated players poll.
I happen to disagree here, and that's because Swisher hasn't gotten the credit he deserves for his body of work as a Yankee.
Verdict: Underrated
CC Sabathia, SP
8 of 13Now that we've negotiated the minefield that is the Yankees' collection of star position players, we can move confidently into their starting rotation.
We'll start with the big guy, and I'll just say ahead of time this discussion will remain brief.
Since joining the Yankees in 2009, Sabathia has won 68 games. We all know wins are overrated (right?), but it reflects well on Sabathia that only Justin Verlander has won more games since the start of the '09 season, according to FanGraphs.
It also reflects well on him that he's pitched more innings than anybody except Verlander and Felix Hernandez since 2009. Sabathia's 3.21 ERA over this same span ranks 10th among pitchers with at least 600 innings pitched. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) over this span is 3.26, nearly identical to his ERA.
His WAR since 2009 checks in at 21.5, sixth among all pitchers.
All of this tells us that Sabathia is exactly what people say he is: an ace and a true workhorse.
This reputation has taken a hit this season. Sabathia has had his struggles here and there and he's currently on the DL with a bad wheel.
Don't be so sure. He hasn't been at his best, but he still ranks fifth among all AL hurlers with a 2.7 WAR.
Verdict: Rated perfectly
Ivan Nova, SP
9 of 13The thing people immediately notice when it comes to Ivan Nova is his record.
Over the last season-and-a-half, Nova has gone 26-7. According to FanGraphs, only six pitchers have won more games since the start of the 2011 season, and all six of them have lost more games than Nova.
So he has that going for him, which is nice.
It's the rest of his resume that leaves much to be desired. His 3.79 ERA since the start of '11 is well short of elite, as is his 1.35 WHIP.
To boot, Nova posted a FIP over 4.00 in 2011, and his FIP is 4.32 so far this season. The guys ahead of him on that wins list all have FIPs well under 4.00, as do most of the guys immediately behind him.
Nova has managed to win so many games because he's gotten so much run support. The Yankees scored 5.95 runs per game for him in 2011, and they're scoring 5.36 runs per game for him in 2012. A lot of pitchers would kill to have that kind of support.
I'll grant that Nova has made some improvements this year. He's striking out hitters more frequently and walking them less frequently. His last seven starts in 2012 have been quite good, as he's posted a 1.70 ERA over 47.2 innings.
But these seven starts don't define the larger body of work, which is not as good as his record indicates.
Verdict: Overrated
Andy Pettitte, SP
10 of 13Much like A-Rod and Derek Jeter, the question where Andy Pettitte is concerned is not how good he is now, but how good his career is.
It's pretty good.
I'll direct you to a customized search I put together on Baseball-Reference.com for left-handed pitchers with at least 3,000 innings pitched since 1946 (i.e. after World War II). On this list, Pettitte ranks third in winning percentage, 11th in strikeouts and sixth in ERA+ (a version of ERA adjusted to a pitcher's home ballparks).
Pettitte actually boasts a better career ERA+ than Steve Carlton, which is impressive.
All of this is enough to tell us that Pettitte is one of the best left-handers to come along in modern baseball history.
But of course, you already knew that. Right?
Verdict: Rated perfectly
David Robertson, RP
11 of 13David Robertson hasn't really been the same pitcher since Mariano Rivera was lost for the season earlier in 2012. He was obviously injured for a while, but you wonder how much his struggles have to do with the added pressure of having to compensate for the absence of the best reliever ever (more on that in a moment).
In his last 15 appearances, Robertson has posted a 4.61 ERA while striking out 22 in 13.1 innings pitched. He's a much better pitcher than those numbers indicate.
We know this because Robertson's numbers since the start of the 2011 season speak for themselves. Per FanGraphs, he's posted a 13.80 K/9, a 1.48 ERA and a 1.97 FIP since the start of '11.
Those numbers rank fourth, third and second among qualified major league relievers.
Nuff said.
Verdict: Underrated
Rafael Soriano, RP
12 of 13A lot of criticism came the Yankees' way when they decided to sign Rafael Soriano for $35 million over three years before the 2011 season, and deservedly so. That's a lot of money to pay for a reliever, especially one with only a single truly great season under his belt.
Give credit where credit is due, Soriano has stabilized the Yankees' closer role in the absence of Mo Rivera. He's only blown one save in 21 opportunities dating back to May 10, posting a 1.25 ERA in the process. Not bad at all.
Still, I'd stop short of saying that Soriano is on the same level as Craig Kimbrel or—heaven forbid anybody actually say this—Rivera himself. Since the start of the 2011 season, his BB/9 checks in at 4.1 and his K/9 checks in at 8.6. That's a 2.12 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is well south of being elite.
He may have a 1.60 ERA and a 2.38 FIP this season, according to FanGraphs, but you have to take the bad with the good. He had a 4.12 ERA and a 3.97 FIP in 2011.
If the question is whether the Yankees have gotten their money's worth out of Soriano, I'd say the answer is no.
But that's not the question. The question here is whether he's overrated.
As far as I can tell, not a whole lot of people are raving about Soriano as if he's the best thing since sliced bread, so I have to go with no.
Verdict: Meh
Mariano Rivera, RP
13 of 13Rivera is the all-time leader in saves with 603, so he has that going for him.
He also boasts a career ERA of 2.05, a career FIP of 2.66, a career ERA of 206, a career batting average against of .210 and, according to FanGraphs, a career WAR of 38.6.
Best reliever ever?
Yes.
Verdict: Rated perfectly
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