NFL Fantasy: Why Tom Brady Needs to Be Your First Choice on Draft Day

J.P. Scott@TheJPScottSenior Analyst IJuly 1, 2012

FOXBORO, MA - JANUARY 22:  Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens during their AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium on January 22, 2012 in Foxboro, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
Jim Rogash/Getty Images

The last time Tom Brady lost a Super Bowl before last year, he was a man on mission the following offseason.

He had the look in his eye that said nothing was going to stop him from getting back to the Super Bowl and winning. Then disaster struck.

What followed was a season of rehab and New England missing the playoffs. It would take him four more years to get back to the big game, only to fall just short once again.

During that 2007 season, Brady put up easily the best numbers of his career. He was the top fantasy player in every league, regardless of format.

Entering 2012, he has arguably the most talented arsenal he's ever had at his disposal. The addition of Brandon Lloyd gives New England a deep threat and added wrinkle in the offense that they haven't had since Randy Moss' first season in New England. Coincidentally, that was 2007.

Fantasy drafts are all about making educated guesses and gambles. All you have to go off of is past performance and the law of averages. Given that, all signs point to Tom Brady being the most logical and safest choice on draft day. If he's on the board when it's your turn to pick in Round 1, you take him, even if it means taking him  No. 1 overall.

Let's look at the numbers.

Over the past three seasons, Brady has averaged just over 34 touchdown passes and 4,511 yards. If those averages were his 2011 season total, he would have finished fifth in the league in touchdown passes and seventh in passing yards. Again, those are three-year averages.

I don't know many fantasy players who wouldn't love that kind of production from their No. 1 fantasy quarterback every year.

To put it in even more perspective, if Brady only got four points for touchdown passes and one point for every 50 yards thrown, those averages work out to 226 points.

By comparison, if you gave Arian Foster one point for every 20 yards rushing and receiving and six points per touchdown, he'd have gotten you roughly 165 points in the same league in 2011.

Now granted, you can compile all sorts of data that says going running back with the first and second picks will offset having a quarterback outside of the top 10, but why risk it?

When you combine Brady's averages with what he has returning and what New England has added, not to mention the Grand Canyon-sized chip on his shoulder after losing another Super Bowl, drafting him is the most sensible gamble you can take on draft day.

Quarterback is the one position you can count on in fantasy football. Tom Brady is the quarterback you can count on most. Draft him, and you'll be well on your way to your league's playoffs.