Euro 2012: Analyzing Every Possible Outcome for Group B Qualification

Before the tournament, Group B was quickly dubbed as the Group of Death—the depth and talent of all four teams in the group made it near impossible to predict who would and wouldn't qualify.

Germany, Holland, Portugal, Denmark.

Two would qualify for the quarterfinals. Two would not.

In the opening round of matches, we saw arguably the biggest upset of the tournament with Denmark knocking off Holland 1-0 to take the lead atop of Group B with Germany, who also won 1-0 over Portugal.

In the second round, Portugal knocked off Denmark in a thriller, and Germany downed Holland to move to the top of the Group B standings.

Which means, then, that with the final round of matches to play, every team in Group B still has a chance at qualifying for the quarterfinals. No team is safe, and no team is out—it truly is that tight and an accurate reflection of why it was called the Group of Death in the first place.

So, with four national teams fighting it out for two spots, who's going to quality and who's going to miss out? Let's take a minute to explore all the possible combinations of what could and couldn't happen in the final round of matches for Group B.

Option No. 1: Germany qualifies, Portugal qualifies

Germany and Portugal are first and second respectively in the group standings, so this theoretically should be the most likely outcome to occur. Yet as we've discussed, literally anything can happen in this group.

Any points from Germany would ensure them qualification to the next round, so a win or a draw against Denmark is enough for them to be guaranteed first place. Portugal, then, are dependent on the Germany match for their qualification—needing them to win or draw against Denmark. A draw means that Portugal must beat Holland; a win means that they need only a draw to qualify second.

Option No. 2: Germany qualifies, Denmark qualifies

The first way in which this could happen is if Germany and Denmark have a draw, and Netherlands beat Portugal. This would place Germany on seven points, Denmark on four and Portugal on three—giving both sides qualification to the quarterfinals.

Denmark could also beat Germany, which would place both teams on six points—meaning that the two sides need a draw or a loss from Portugal to ensure their qualification. 

Option No. 3: Germany qualifies, Holland qualifies

Sitting last in the group without a single point, Holland can still qualify for the next round of competition, but they will need some results to fall their way.

Holland must beat Portugal first, and they must do it by at least two goals. That would take them to three points overall and an even goal difference. Germany must then beat Denmark, which would leave the Danes on three points, but more importantly, a negative goal difference. Holland would then beat Portugal in their head-to-head encounter, seeing that the two sides have the same points and goal difference.

There is still some hope for Holland.

Option No. 4: Denmark qualifies, Portugal qualifies

There is also the chance that Germany could be eliminated from the tournament despite not dropping a point in their opening two games. If Denmark can manage to beat the Germans and Portugal can give Holland their third loss of the tournament, then Germany could possibly be eliminated.

Should that scenario happen, all three teams (Germany, Denmark, Holland) would find themselves on six competition points—meaning that goal difference comes in to the equation. 

If Denmark beat Germany by two goals and Portugal beat the Netherlands by a single goal, then the current group leaders would be eliminated on goal difference. Denmark would qualify first with six points and a plus-two goal difference, Portugal second with six points and a plus-one goal difference and Germany would be eliminated with six points and an even goal difference.

Now that truly would be chaotic times.

Prediction: Germany qualifies first, Portugal qualifies second

Having said all of that, Germany will quality for the quarterfinals and will do it after winning the Group of Death. They will post up a 2-0 victory over Denmark, and will ensure their qualification through to the next round. 

They'll be followed by Portugal, who will have a draw with Holland in the final round—giving the Dutch their first points of the tournament, but nothing more. Germany would therefore play the runner-up of Group A in the quarterfinals, while Portugal would play the winner of Group A.

It's not called the Group of Death for nothing, and anything could well happen in the final round of matches. I'd love to hear your thoughts on who will qualify under what scenario and why.

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