Formula 1: Monaco Grand Prix 2012 Thoughts and Predictions

The Formula 1 circus descends on Monaco this weekend for the 69th running of what is arguably the most famous of all motorsport events—the Monaco Grand Prix.

The list of past winners reads includes legendary names such as Ayrton Senna (six wins), Graham Hill (five) and Sir Jackie Stewart (five).

Out of the current drivers, seven have won at least once—Michael Schumacher has five wins and Fernando Alonso two, while Lewis Hamilton, Kimi Raikkonen, Sebastian Vettel, Jenson Button and Mark Webber have one apiece.

It looks likely that a name from that list will add another victory on Sunday, but one thing 2012 has taught us is that nothing is certain, and predictions are hard to make.

No harm in trying though, right?

Qualifying

Could everyone who had Pastor Maldonado down for pole at the last race please stand up.

Anyone?

Apart from you, Mr. Chavez. No one else?

While it'd be fair to say that one was unexpected, it was a blip—predicting the polesitter has actually proved quite easy so far. 

In the other four races we've had Lewis Hamilton twice (would have been three, were it not for McLaren's error in Catalunya), Nico Rosberg once and Sebastian Vettel once. 

Monaco, for all the unique characteristics of the track, will probably throw up another expected result.

The others—particularly Alonso, Vettel, Maldonado or a Sauber—could spring a surprise, but I don't see a polesitter driving for anyone except McLaren or Lotus.

Both have cars that appear to work well across a wide range of circuits, and two of the drivers in particular are known to be able to produce the goods in qualifying—Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen.

Not that we can discount Jenson Button or Romain Grosjean, of course.

But on the balance of probability, I'd have to go for Hamilton. He's been exceptional in qualifying all year, and there's no reason to believe that'll change this weekend.

Though he's not had the best Saturday record in Monaco, the combination of him and McLaren will be too strong.

The Ferrari Resurgence

Fernando Alonso fighting for the victory in the Spanish Grand Prix was almost as surprising as Pastor Maldonado actually winning it.

The Scuderia hadn't been especially bullish about their chances following the Mugello test, and before qualifying, someone from Lotus, McLaren or Red Bull would have seemed more likely challengers.

But there he was, doing the business at a track considered a huge overall challenge for the car.

At the start of the season, one of the major issues with the Ferrari was traction out of low-speed corners. Felipe Massa spoke after practice of better traction than expected, so while it perhaps remains a tiny problem, it must be as good as resolved.

The F2012 still isn't the class of the field—I think that honour lies with McLaren and Lotus. And it's probably not as good as the Red Bull or Mercedes either. 

But in Monaco, Alonso should be able to at least mount an outside challenge for the front two rows, and from there a podium is possible.

How the other car will fare is another question entirely.

Massa is under significant pressure, and on the surface he had a dire race in Spain. His fastest lap was a second slower than Alonso's best, and a drive-through penalty meant he finished 15th.

But the Brazilian probably wasn't that much slower—he spent the entire low-fuel period towards the end of the race stuck behind Paul di Resta, and the rest of the race in traffic of some form.  Without the penalty, he'd have scored points.

Can he do that in Monaco?

He's appeared somewhat more positive in the run-up to the weekend whenever he's spoken to the press, and I think with the car behaving more predictably he'll do relatively well.

Not as well as Alonso of course, but reaching Q3 would be an improvement.

From there, staying in the top 10 for a points finish will do him the world of good, and he should manage to do that.

What About Pastor Maldonado?

The Pastor Maldonado question is the toughest to answer of the lot.

Without wishing to jump onto a hype-wagon, he performed stunningly in Barcelona. He had a little bit of assistance from Williams (and McLaren), but the main factor was his driving. And it was of the highest quality.

But without wishing to puncture the hype-wagon's tyres, that was one race. And I probably wasn't alone in wondering who the guy wearing Maldonado's helmet was—because the driver of that car certainly wasn't acting like him.

And speaking of the car, that couldn't have been a Williams FW34.

The man and the car are enigmas right now. Monaco is a track he's always gone well at, both in GP2 and last year in F1. A solid top 10 qualifying performance and some good points would be a very safe bet to make.

But he could produce a great lap in qualifying and end up on the front row again. Or just as easily have a shocker and start 15th.

Likewise, his Williams could find itself anywhere—front row, midfield, top six. It's clearly a very fast car when it wants to be, but seemingly as erratic as Maldonado himself. Perhaps it's just very hard to find the "sweet spot" in the set-up.

Realistically, I don't think he'll become the first driver to win two races this year. A podium spot doesn't look impossible, but fifth or sixth at best would be my bet.

Somewhere ahead of Bruno Senna, anyway.

And What of Michael Schumacher?

Aside from Pastor Maldonado and Felipe Massa, the man receiving the most attention in the run up to Monaco is Michael Schumacher.

He'd had, according to the raw statistics, his worst-ever start to a season. But that's largely through no fault of his own—his driving has been mixed, rather than dreadful. 

His gearbox put him out in Australia while running third. An ill-fitted wheel took him out of the Chinese Grand Prix while he was in a net-second place.

In Bahrain, a grid penalty for a gearbox change and a botched qualifying strategy—coupled with a DRS problem—saw him start 22nd and finish 10th. 

Of course, his error in Spain was unfortunate and not what we'd expect from the most experienced man on the grid. But overall it's poor luck, rather than bad driving, that's left him stranded on just two points.

Schumacher has won five times in Monaco, a surprisingly low number considering he was on four wins by 1999, before his run of five consecutive titles began. Unless something very unusual happens, he won't add a sixth victory in 2012.

A five-place grid penalty (awarded for running into the back of Bruno Senna in Spain) will probably dump him well into the teens for the start, and making up places will be very tough.

But I think he'll score points, and leave Monaco having made a positive impression.

The Midfield

The word "midfield" isn't really working in 2012, because there isn't the usual giant gap between the front-runners and the rest. And we keep seeing supposed front-runners fighting losing battles against cars which are supposed to be midfielders.

There are just so many good cars. Instead of the usual obvious groupings, we've got an gradual curve from the front to the back—and teams' positions on it change every race. 

But in the interest of maintaining an F1 tradition, let's say the midfield is currently Sauber, Williams, Force India and Toro Rosso. 

Sauber in particular are pushing their noses into good finishing positions, and of course we had a Williams victory in Spain. 

Force India and Toro Rosso are (thanks guys) behaving like "proper" midfield runners, and don't look capable of springing surprises this weekend. Paul di Resta and Nico Hulkenberg are a very strong driver pairing, but the car just doesn't seem up to the challenge.

And Williams were covered a few slides back, so that leaves Sauber.

Kamui Kobayashi drove a very good race to take fifth in Spain, while we can't forget the second place for Sergio Perez in Malaysia.

I expect they'll perform well in Monaco too, but it'll be "well for a midfield runner" rather than podium-challenging brilliance. The competition is just too strong. 

At best, I'd predict two low-end points positions—but not with any great confidence.

A Sixth Winner in Six Races?

I'd have to say yes.

There are two men currently without a victory who will win a race in 2012. Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen.

If we have a "normal" qualifying session and a dry race, I think Hamilton will break his duck for the season. It's hard to believe he's still on zero wins, and it has to end sooner or later.

I can see the main challenge coming from his teammate Jenson Button—despite a dismal run in Spain—and the Lotus of Raikkonen. 

So I'll go for that as the "podium" (Monaco has the steps to the royal box, rather than a normal podium)—Hamilton to win, with Button and Raikkonen occupying the other two steps.