Minnesota Vikings QB Christian Ponder in over His Head in NFC North

It is no secret that Vikings fans need to have tempered expectations about their position in the NFC North this year. But how tempered are we talking?

Pretty tempered, I'm afraid.

Let's go with the common sports knowledge that usually an NFL team is only as good as their quarterback can be. Obviously, there are the million other variables such as defense, special teams, running game, blah blah.

I know the Vikes have Adrian Peterson (hopefully). However, the other eight guys in the box know it as well.

Let's face it, the NFL is a pass-first league, Adrian Peterson be damned. The pressure of this year is going to fall squarely on young quarterback Christian Ponder to successfully be about—and let me check my math here—roughly a bazillion times better than last season.

Coaches have realized that to win consistently in this league, it comes down to the QB battle of one guy outdueling the other. Out of the 16 games played last season, Ponder was the leading passer twice—both against AFC West foes in the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders.

Unfortunately for Ponder, this means that he gets to try to improve this stat in arguably the best division for QBs six times in the upcoming season.

Ponder, like any young quarterback, needs time to develop, but I'm afraid it's going to come at the expense of any sort of success in this upcoming season. Playoff spots and overall success of a year are pretty dependent on divisional play, where the Vikes went 0-6 last year. The numbers don't make it any prettier.

Let's do some actual quick math here:

NFC North QBs Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler and Ponder combined in the 2010-2011 regular season for 13,853 yards passing and 112 touchdowns. This is with Jay Cutler on the low end of calculations with a sidelined Matt Forte and no Brandon Marshall like this season.

So, to be an average quarterback in the NFC North last season the stat line should read: 3,463 yards passing, 28 touchdowns.

Ponder's 2010 stat line: 1,853 yards passing and 13 touchdowns.

The obvious here is that Ponder only played in 11 games last year. So, let's go ahead and project his per-games for those five games for a full season. I'll even give him the advantage of ignoring the fact that he was benched in favor of Joe Webb.

This brings Ponder's totals to: 2,695 yards passing and 18 touchdowns.

Still a wee bit short.

Of course, Ponder is going to learn from last season and develop. But in order to be average (not successful) in the NFC North this year your asking him to throw 128 percent more pass yards and 155 percent more touchdowns.

Yes, we did that in percentages.

To be average.

At least it's not a bazillion.